Peru Quintessential Dangerous Floaters Not To Be Overlooked?
Peru have built up a bit of a reputation in South America for being quintessential dangerous floaters, snapping up unlikely wins. Why, they only just accomplished exactly that in Copa America Centenario when they upset Brazil against the odds and sent the highly-fancied Canaries packing out of the tournament. On that score alone, they should not be overlooked.
It’s also worth mentioning that Peru finished third in last year’s Copa America. After losing narrowly to Argentina in the semi-finals, they defeated Paraguay in the third place playoff. It marked the second straight Copa America in which they clinched third place. (In 2011, they saw off Colombia in 2-0 in added extra time en route to the third-place finish.)
Yet, despite their credentials in the tournament they are backed out to exorbitant odds in both their quarterfinal matchup with Colombia and outright winner markets. They are priced at 6.60 to win over Colombia in 90 minutes with 888sport. (The draw, meanwhile, is trading on tenders of 4.00 or thereabouts depending on your choice green-listed bookmaker.) In the competition proper, they are backed out to a whopping 56.00, making them the seventh best bet in the field of last eight to triumph. They are well and truly outsiders.
Colombia Overrated?
Given Colombia’s wobble in the last group fixture, losing 3-2 to the then eliminated Costa Rica, there are those punters that would have Los Cafeteros slightly overrated. Not only in this matchup, for which they are priced at 1.65 with William Hill, but also in the competition proper where they emerge as the second-best bet, level with Mexico, for a Copa America Centenario triumph. Colombia are trading at 7.50 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Bet Right, amongst several other bookmakers in outright betting markets.
Typically, it’s not about how a team finishes in the group stage but how they account in the knockouts that matters. After all, that’s where the tournament is won. Colombia fall into a favourable section of the draw – avoiding Argentina, fellow second-favourites Mexico and last, but not least, defending champions Chile. Indeed, the bottom half of the draw looms ominous. Therein lies the reason behind their favourable outlook as, arguably, of the four nations in the top half of the draw – USA, Ecuador, Peru and Colombia – Los Cafeteros are the best team on paper.
There’s one tiny caveat that bears considering here: Colombia haven’t advanced beyond this stage of the tournament since 2004, including the aforementioned 2011 defeat to Peru and in 2015 when they lost to Argentina 5-4 on penalties. Getting over this hump has been a trial in previous tournaments, a fact that can’t be brushed under the carpet.
Match Betting Tips
The match betting market on this fixture does both sides a disservice by underrating Peru severely and overrating Colombia it gives the impression of more of a mismatch than it really is. On one hand, Colombia are enjoying a solid run of form at Peru’s expense that is comprised of five consecutive fixtures undefeated across several competitions (3W 2D). On the other hand, Peru are undefeated in their last three Copa America fixtures with Colombia (1W 2D).
Clearly, Peru rise to the occasion in this vital South American competition and that’s nothing to sniff at. As such, there’s good reason to back either side on your wagering slips. For our money, though, we feel Colombia get it done this time and finally get over that quarterfinal hurdle. As such, we’re backing Colombia at 1.65 with William Hill. It might be worthwhile to consider hedging the ‘draw no bet on Colombia’ at 1.22 should things get interesting and the game goes into added extra time or, even, penalties.
Recommended Tips: Colombia to win 1.65 & Draw no bet Colombia at 1.22
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