With six wins from eight matches, the Jamaica Tallawahs are the standout team in the Caribbean Premier League as the playoffs approach. Indeed, they have already qualified and are no better than 2.75 (Betway) to win the thing.
But they have suffered an almighty blow with the loss of Dale Steyn from their ranks. Steyn is their leading wicket-taker with 12 victims and an impressive economy rate of 6.8. Only Sohail Tanvir of the Amazon Warriors has taken more wickets in the competition.
Cricket South Africa (CSA) has decided to recall Steyn so that he can attend an end of season awards dinner. A strange decision considering Steyn has enjoyed a resurgence in the format. A terrific Test bowler and influential ODI bowler, Steyn had always been a missile to his franchise’s hopes in T20.
Jamaica have called on Dane Paterson, another South Africa instead. He is not required to attend the bash despite having some numbers in lights. His T20 record is good – 33 wickets and an economy rate of 6.7 – but he has never played international cricket.
CSA have unwittingly had a major say on the outcome of the tournament because AB De Villiers and Wayne Parnell have been extracted from the Barbados Tridents squad as they battle to pip Trinbago Knight Riders for a play-off spot. It is syurely between those two for the last spot after the St Lucia Zouks found their mojo.
De Villiers and Parnell will be replaced by Pakistan\’s Ahmed Shehzad and Proteas fast bowler Marchant de Lange.
De Lange is probably an improvement on Parnell but the loss of AB is savage. He is their top runscorer in the tournament and sixth overall. Along with skipper Kieron Pollard, he was the only reason one would considering backing Tridents at consistent odds against.
But they look to be untouchable now. The market agrees. Trinbago, the holders, are 6 with PaddyPower a green-listed bookmaker and 5.5 across the board. Tridents have drifted to 13 (PaddyPower) and no better than 9 (Bet365, Skybet, BetVictor, SportsWinner). Bye, bye Barbados.
Trend spotting I
Here are the last 18 first-innings scores at Gros Islet, home ground for the St Lucia Zouks (1-2 denotes match won by side batting first or second, *day-night): 159-2*/137-2*/174-1*/118-2/156-1*/149-2*/103-2/117-2/167-2/142-2*/175-1*/166-1*/116-2*/183-2/117-2*/150-2/140-2*/156-1*.
Can you spot the two money-making trends? It’s a toss bias and a low scoring ground. Only five of the 18 have been won by the team batting first. So the strategy is clear. Bet the chaser. Only five scores above 165. So the strategy is clear. Lay 165 or more first-innings runs.
The Zouks meet Trinbago Knight Riders there on Tuesday. You know what to do.
Trend spotting II
The Zouks have shot up the table in CPL thanks to three straight wins at home. Jamaica also transformed themselves from a team struggling for momentum with home comforts. Even the insipid Tridents managed two wins from three at their ground.
So backing the hosts in CPL would have paid off handsomely this term. That’s a trend worth recalling. It’s a trend we don’t fully understand but our best guess is that home teams – although largely made up of transient cricketers – just know their wicket better. Unless you’re a Patriot, of course.
It’s ironic that in a tournament where home teams have done so well, Patriots were unable to cash in. The playoffs and final will be held at their ground. Chastening.
Home records in CPL
Jamaica – W 4 L 0
Zouks – W 3 L 0
Trinbago – W 1 L 3
Amazon- W 3 L 1
Tridents – W 2 L 1
Patriots – W 1 L 3
Market mover
It’s been a long time coming but Mustafizur Rahman, the Bangladesh pace ace, has finally arrived for his stint on the south coast with Sussex. Niggles – physical and mental (there were reports he didn’t want to come) – have been sorted and he will remain for the finale of the county’s one-day campaigns.
He has probably come too late to save their Royal London hopes. Bottom of the table with three to play and four points off qualification, there are just too many teams between them and the promised land. They will have to win all three to stand a chance so the 21 available (888, Coral, Unibet, 32 Red) doesn’t appeal.
The value is in the NatWest Blast. They are the same price at 21 with Coral and StanJames but are bang in the mix for qualification with one to play on Thursday against Glamorgan at home.
Mustafizur can make the difference. He is an artist with new ball and old while his death bowling in T20 is arguably the best in the world.
Calculators
