How do you feel about tieing up your money until summer 2017? Not that keen one would imagine but listen, we do anything for a spot of value so tighten those belts and prepare for a monster wager.
The ICC Champions Trophy – the mini World Cup which is far more palatable than the real thing – tales place in England next year and the hosts are a crazy, bonkers price to win the thing for the first time.
England are currently 5.25 with NetBet with Bet365 offering 5. Eoin Morgan’s men are as short as 4 with Betfred and Betway, which is the sort of price they should be.
So when the hunt for value is all about looking for wrong prices, it would be folly to pass up the chance to get with England at inflated odds, even if we have to wait a while for it to cop. This column would be surprised if England failed to go off at sub 4 pretty much across the board to win the title.
And this is not some patriotic tub-thumping corner of Gambling News, by the way folks. We are loathe to be accused of such and go to tremendous care to ensure we are not see as staring goggle-eyed through red, white and blue tinted glasses. We just know a good bet when we see one.
England is the real deal as an ODI side having been awful for, ooh, about 24 years. After a solid start in ODI – England contested three of the first five World Cup finals and made two semi-finals – they failed to notice the sea change in the format and got left behind playing stodgy, safety-first cricket which was reasonably useful in the 1980s.
It is only since their latest World Cup disaster that it can be considered contenders in 50-overs. The team failed to get out of their group in 2015 – the sort of performance one would expect from a minnow – meaning their wait for a repeat semi-final performance from their last in 1992 goes on.
But it has learned from their horror show last year and have revolutionised the way it plays the game. In short under Trevor Bayliss, the coach, England has given their players licence to play a reckless, attacking brand of cricket the like of which these shores have not seen.
Yes, but aren’t they just catching up with the rest of the world? Not really. England are leading the charge. Since this transformation, the side has beaten New Zealand, World Cup runners-up, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. While consistent powerhouses Australia, world champs no less, and South Africa (in South Africa) were run mighty close losing the odd game in five.
Moreover, no team on the planet is scoring runs as quickly. England’s runs per over is the highest since the World Cup and they have passed 300 nine times, five more than their nearest challengers South Africa who has done it four times. Not to mention the world record 444 England set at Trent Bridge versus Pakistan.
It is true that England lack a little bit of experience in defending scores, but, frankly, most teams do these days. That nous should have been honed by next summer while there will be terrific assistance from home conditions for their bowlers.
In what should be a thrilling tournament, that advantage should see England home. Whereas on foreign fields in the past their bowlers would be disappearing from ball one, in seaming and swinging conditions they have the chance to strike fast and early.
Unsurprisingly, England have a poor record in the Champions Trophy. They made the quarter-finals in 1998 and 2000 and failed to get out of the group in 2002 and 2006. These are shocking returns when you consider there are only seven other major cricketing forces.
But in 2004 and 2013 they finished second? Weird, no? A team which had been consistently awful in ODI suddenly transformed themselves into genuine contenders and reverted to type in between. Not really. Both those tournaments were staged in England and with a little more care, England would have won both.
This England team would wipe the floor with both those outfits of the past. So get on the 5.25 now. Betting is all about spotting the superstar teams or players before everyone else so to get the value. And although most have cottoned on, this price is wrong.
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