England has won 13 tests in a row and go for a record-equalling win against Australia this weekend. So far this autumn series England have beaten South Africa, Fiji, and Argentina. Considering England were down to 14-men for 76 minutes and they played for 20 minutes with 13 men, beating Argentina 27-14 was a very good win especially against quality opposition like Argentina, who only a year ago were in the semi-finals of a World Cup.
The autumn has shown that England, with the strongest domestic pool of players in the Northern Hemisphere, have real strength in depth having gone into the games with the likes of Itoje, Haskell, Nowell and Watson injured and that will be tested further this weekend with Billy Vunipola injured in the last game.
After winning the Grand Slam earlier in 2016 England beat Australia 3-0 on their summer tour. Australia has improved since their form having dipped for six months after reaching the Rugby World Cup final but on their own tour this autumn lost in Ireland last weekend to end their hopes of an Autumn grand slam.
Against Ireland, tough opponents and probably the nearest challenger England have in the Six Nations, Australia came back from 17-0 down to only lose narrowly 27-24. Once they settled into the game some of the tries they scored were wonderfully crafted but in terms of basic execution of skills up front and at the breakdown they were found wanting. In the game, they conceded 19 penalties and 13 turnovers, compared to 6 and 3 respectively by Ireland.
In the summer tests England won the three matches by 11, 6 and 4 points respectively and although Australia was off-key still scored ten tries in the three games, a measure of how dangerous they can be when they have the ball.
The key to this game will be the breakdown. England’s defense in Australia was very good and the back row managed to slow down Australian ball and limit the opportunities for broken field play, from which Australia can shred any team. To fully benefit Australia need parity up front and this will be tough against England who have a pack that at least matches any opponent in the world game and, if necessary, a kicking game that will win territory and attempt to get the visitors forced into playing rugby in the wrong areas of the field.
It\’s going to be very close, but I think England will win but perhaps not as comfortably as outright odds at some green listed bookmaker of England 3/10 Australia 16/5 suggest. Australia is +9 10/11 generally on the point spread which is a tempting bet. A way of gaining some more value is to back England to win by 1-12 points, best priced at 8/5 with Paddy Power. This captures my central expectation that England win by 1-2 scores
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