Mumbai, 8th-12th December
India won the third test in Mohali to go 2-0 up in the five test series with two matches to play. England won what should have been an important toss but failed to capitalize and their first innings total of 283 was below par and once India replied with 417 on a blameless pitch England were up against it. India eventually chased 100 to win by 8 wickets. In that match, England’s deficiencies in the sub-continent were once again clear. An ability to compile match winning totals, specifically playing spin and with the ball the absence of sufficient spin quality in support of Adil Rashid, who through three matches is the leading wicket-taker in the series.
With Hameed and Ansari injured England have called up Keaton Jennings, an opening batsman and spinner Liam Dawson for the last two tests. Jennings is likely to play, and whether Dawson, a slightly surprising selection, does so will depend on decisions on the makeup of the side with England seemingly reluctant to pick the extra seamer and go in with just Rashid and Moeen in the spin ranks
The seaside situation of the Wankhede stadium means that the swing bowlers get a fair amount of assistance during the early part of each day. The pitch has traditionally been full of runs, but it does help the spinners during the last couple of days.
India, despite clearly being a strong side than England in the conditions have some issues of their own in the batting line where only Kohli and Pujara have scored consistently.
Murali Vijay hit a century in the first innings of the first Test against England at Rajkot but has been struggling for form ever since. In the nine innings before and after that century, Vijay has scored 9, 7, 10, 19, 31, 20, 3, 12 and 0 and it has looked like he has been found out by the England seamers. Alongside Vijay, India have played 3 different opening partners, but with Parthiv Patel scoring 42 and 67* in Mohali,India appear to have settled on an opening partnership for the rest of this series
Odds for this game are predictable. Best prices available are India 1-2 England 4/1 and the Draw 9/2. India went off for the last test at 4/6 and clearly a win there has seen a contraction in price. I do expect India to win again, England have some very good players but 1 to 11 can’t match the hosts in these conditions and England have been carrying a few players with some middle order batting and second/third spinners not contributing
Looking at Sub-markets:
Top England batsman
So far in the series top run scorers are:
Root 299 Stokes 267 Cook 246 Bairstow 237 Hameed 219
England have hit four centuries and eight fifties
Best prices for this game are Root 11/4, Cook 7/2, Bairstow 7/2, Jennings 6/1, Stokes 7/1 and the value here given his form and England’s propensity to lose early wickets in Ben Stokes at 7/1 with Ladbrokes.
Top England bowler
Adil Rashid has 18 wickets in the series and no other England bowler has more than 7. Lack of support for Rashid, compared to how India backup Ashwin, has been a key difference between the sides. England has taken 47 wickets in the series and under 60% have been taken by spinners.
All of this makes the 5/2 widely available on Rashid top England bowler look quite attractive
Top India Batsman
India has been very dependent on nukbers 3 and 4 in their batting order. Kohli has scored 405 runs in the series, Pujara 338 and the next highest is the all-rounder Ashwin with 239. The likes of Rahane and Vijay have looked out of form.
Best prices are Kohli 5/2 Pujara 4/1, 9/2 bar the front two. The 4/1 Skybet offer on Pujara does look anomalous, notwithstanding Kohli’s brilliance.
Top India bowler
So far in the series, the top wicket-takers are Ashwin 15, Jadeja 10 and Shami 10. Shami is the top wicket taking seamer in the series. Indian spinners have taken over 70% of the 51 England wickets to fall so far in the series.
Prices have Ashwin 6/4, Jadeja 11/4 5/1 bar and whilst Ashwin is the likely winner there is better value in the three markets above.
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