Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool have won 17 of the last 20 FA Cups. So as the competition hots up with round four this weekend, it is worth deciphering the value on the outright market.
That opening salvo of a stat should pretty much do it for you. Chelsea are 5.5 (Stan James) favourites with United available at 6.5 (at green listed bookmakers Stan James), Liverpool at 8 (Betway) and Arsenal at 9 (Paddy Power). If you had level stakes on each of them you’d be confident of coming out on top.
But our aim is to pick one. And it’s United who gets the nod. Their price has not shifted a huge amount since the season began and with their title challenge on the slide after dropping points at Stoke City – they are 14 points behind Chelsea – this trophy could be as good as it gets.
Sure, they are on the brink of a League Cup final but any success there will not devalue their approach in the stellar cup competition. It should make them more positive. Jose Mourinho would snap you and off for a double in his term in charge. Hell, he may even reckon a treble is on with the Europa League very winnable.
But we don’t need to attempt cod psychology to reckon they’re a decent bet. After a shaky start under Mourinho – they would win one and then lose the next from October to early December – United have found their rhythm.
Draws against Liverpool and Stoke in their last two outings followed a nine-game winning run. That’s more like the Old Trafford of old. And Mourinho, too.
The key has been the way Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who is really motoring, Paul Pogba and Henrikh Mkhitaryan have dovetailed. The three have developed a real understanding and are a personification of a terrible football cliché: ‘they just need time to gel’.
As important are Michael Carrick and the excellent Ander Herrera behind them. United have struggled for midfield combinations since the retirement of Sir Alex Ferguson but these two know their roles perfectly.
United should breeze past a limited Wigan Athletic in the next round on Saturday and then it’s all about avoiding their rivals until the latter stages. There’s not much we can do about that but they’re going to have to beat one of them to win the thing anyway.
If you want more of a sure thing then the 3.75 that Skybet and BetVictor offer about United making the final will appeal. Chelsea are the same price with the same firms. Liverpool are 4 (BetVictor) although Jurgen Klopp’s title aspirations may mean he takes his eye off the Cup.
The Reds fielded reserve teams against Plymouth and if they do that against Wolverahmpton Wanderers in round four they will surely be punished.
It could be argued that Arsenal are underrated. They face a tricky test against Southampton on Saturday but the Saints may have been flattered by an inspired Leicester last time out. The 5.5 (Skybet) that the Gunners make the final is a reasonable saver.
Another stat to finish off: since the Premier League’s inception 25 years ago only two teams from the top flight have reached the FA Cup final. That little beauty may provide some more value later on as the teams get whittled down.
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