Sri Lanka gave South Africa a bloody nose in the Twenty20 series after they had been battered from pillar to post in the Twenty20 series. For the hosts, it was unexpected. They thought they would comfortably keep the tourists at arms length but got caught with a swift and brutal one-two combo.
So it apparently sets up the ODI series rather nicely. Until you look at the odds. South Africa are hot, hot favourites for victory. They are no better than 1.07 with Stan James. Sri Lanka are 11 (Ladbrokes). Be sure to check and compare with other green listed bookmakers.
Is the latter price value over the course of a five-game series? Unfortunately not. Ovver short distances – a three-game series of 20-over contests – teams are much more evenly matched. There just isn’t the time to recover from a mistake. Or to halt a flush of extraordinary hitting or bowling.
These 50-over contests will feel like a marathon by contrast and we just can’t see the Lankans winning three matches. Fret not, though, there are plenty of other markets to play.
The series correct score market offers us the best option. We expect South Africa to win. But how dominant will they be?
Importantly, they have picked their strongest squad, something they did not do for the T20 series which was played by a reserve team. The familiar names trip off the tongue. AB De Villiers, Hashim Amla, Quinton de Kock, JP Duminy, Faf Du Plessis and Kagsio Rabada all return.
It is a squad which bristles with power which Sri Lanka, shorn of the talismanic Angelo Mathews, cannot hope to match.
South Africa’s talented bunch are good at duffing up teams like Sri Lanka in no-pressure situations. They are only tested in the heat of a World Cup battle when the mojo and guts go missing. So we have no doubt that the world ‘stroll’ is going to be applicable here.
In an effort to apply some science to finding a wager, they have lost about one in three ODI at home in the last five years. So immediately the 4-1 score looks a good pick at 2.7 with 32Red, 888Sport. This view is strengthened by Sri Lanka winning one in just a little over every three matches in South Africa.
This dates back to 1994. Relevant? Yes because although the protagonists are different, the conditions are not. And conditions are key in cricket. Sri Lanka have, and will continue to, find it difficult to adjust their games to bouncier, greener pitches over long periods of play.
Indeed, it might be considered a bit of a shot in the dark that Sri Lanka can win once. We’re counting on a toss bias helping them out at Cape Town (which is a fifty-fifty toss match) or in Durban, which also assists the team batting first.
It could be argued that 5-0 comes into play at 2.88 with Stan James but we will resist that urge. We are worried that if the hosts get ahead they will start to rest players and give fringe players a go. This is a desperate move to keep the lot on the outside happy in case they up sticks and move to England for more money.
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