South Africa and Sri Lanka meet in game three of their five-match ODI series on Saturday. The hosts are getting shorter with each victory and with one win needed to secure the series, you need a microscope for their price among green listed bookmakers.
They are as short as 1.05 with 10Bet. The biggest you can get is 1.11 (The Greek). Sri Lanka are 8 with Bet365.
We have said all along that the tourists need one of two things (preferably both) to occur before they can be considered value. A toss bias and an experimental South Africa team.
The first is in play for the Johannesburg match. This is a day-night affair and with seven of the last ten won by the side fielding first, it reduces the gulf.
There is a problem, however. If Sri Lanka win the toss and field, it is very likely that they could be a much bigger price at the innings break because this is a venue which favours bat over ball. It would be a surprise if South Africa didn’t bust 280 at least.
So you will need nerves of steel to back Sri Lanka here. Unless you decide to place your bet and only check the result once the game is done.
The last 11 first-innings scores (most recent last with 1/2 denoting game won by side batting first or second) in all conditions read: 262-2/275-1/315-1/146-2/129-2/233-2/190-1/312-2/343-1/358-1/439-1. It is fair to say that the Johannesburg pitch has been cracking to bat on.
So, we have to turn to other markets for the value. Hashim Amla smashed an unbeaten 153 against West Indies on this ground two years ago. He is 3.75 (offered at the majority of our green listed bookmakers). AB De Villiers broke all sorts of records with 149 off just 44 balls in the same game. He is priced at 4.5.
David Miller top scored with a ton last time and considering he is unavailable – the talent drain beginning nicely for the fourth ODI and a wager on Lanka – with a hand injury, we like JP Duminy at 10. That’s too big given his ability.
Our top bet comes in the bowler market, however. We had a nice winner in game two with Imran Tahir doing the business and although he appeals again at 4 (Bet365), we’re going to side with Kagiso Rabada at the same price (Bet365).
The reason for that is his strike rate. He takes a wicket roughly every 17 balls at this ground which is better than any South African on show, including Tahir who needs almost 33 balls. On those numbers Rabada should be the jolly.
For the Lankans we were on Upul Tharanga at big odds last time and when he opened the batting we were on to an absolute corker as he was expected to bat in the middle order. He is 5.5 for honours with Bet365. That’s fair and we intend to keep the faith. However, Betfair Sportsbook offer 3 that he manages a fifty and that is safer.
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