The sacking of Claudio Ranieri at Leicester City has, surprisingly, been the last straw for many. Apparently, it was confirmation that football had lost its soul. Forget the bribes, bullying, sex abuse, trafficking, monetization of children, contracts for criminals and nefarious chairman. And Fifa.
So there will be more than a fair few who hope that Leicester City gets what they deserve when they host Liverpool on Monday. It could be a reason why Liverpool look prohibitively short at 1.67 (William Hill & Coral). The emotional hedge has come into play.
Leicester are 6 with BetVictor. Now if we are to believe the reason for Ranieri’s sacking, that should be the value. After all, it was orchestrated by the players. Their revolt, their lack of faith, their low energy levels in matches.
With Ranieri gone, Leicester should be up and at ‘em. Playing with verve and pace. And that leads us to a point we have touched on before in these pages. How much difference does it actually make changing a manager during a season?
The short answer is none. Lengthy studies have been done and a bad group of players are a bad group of players no matter who is in charge. But are Leicester a bad group of players? Of course not. They are the champions. But they could have been infected by a bad attitude.
A manager switch has worked for Swansea City, although they have had to sack two of them before finally getting it right. And they are by no means safe from relegation. Hull have also perked up but are still short odds to go down.
What will interest punters is the immediate impact of a managerial change. Well, check out the stats below. Swansea lost both of their next matches immediately after sacking Messrs Guidolin and Bradley. Crystal Palace could only manage a draw at Watford. Hull picked up a win at Swansea in the FA Cup after Mike Phelan was given the bullet.
On the short study and the long study then, Leicester’s form should hold. Indeed, do Leicester’s players really have the gall to suddenly put a shift in? The incredible sulk could continue. Hell, there could be a terrible mood around the place with supporters angry at the treatment of the man who gave them the most extraordinary title win.
Liverpool, of course, have won only two of their last 11. It’s a terrible run. But a point against Chelsea and win over Spurs suggest they are finding their feet again.
So we are reasonably confident Liverpool are more resilient. However, we are completely guessing as to how Leicester will perform. And we don’t like that. We only bet on what we know to be true.
Liverpool are great going forward. Statistically, they have created as many quality chances as Man City. But they’ve also offered the same to their opponents. Their goals expectation is currently one of the highest in the league.
That makes more than 2.5 goals a solid wager with Marathon at 1.83. A 2-1 Liverpool correct score also appeals for those interested in chunkier odds at 9 (at Bet365 and other green listed bookmakers).
How EPL clubs fared after sacking their manager
Swansea
October 3 F Guidolin
Previous result: L 2-1 Liverpool (h)
Next result: L 3-2 Arsenal (a)
Dec 27 Bob Bradley
Previous result: L 1-4 West Ham (h)
Next result: L 3-0 Bournemouth (h)
Crystal Palace
December 22 A Pardew
Previous result: L 1-0 Chelsea (h)
Next result: D 1-1 Watford (a)
Hull City
January 3 Mike Phelan
Previous result: L 3-1 WBA (a)
Next result: W 2-0 Swansea (h)
Calculators
