The second semi-final of the Pakistan Super League takes place on Wednesday. It is a tournament which has been a bit of a farce with a heavy toss bias and corruption accusations. Fitting then that there should be as farcical a rick by the bookies. Karachi Kings take on Islamabad United and somehow the layers have made the Kings 1.74 (888Sport). United are 2.14 with Marathon but 2.1 is available with Bet365, William Hill, Coral, among other green listed bookmakers.
Why is that a good price about Islamabad? Well, for a start a team has to be reliable, consistent, enjoy a strong work ethic with clear plans with the bat and ball to be trusted at those odds. In other words, they have to be a very good T20 side to warrant backing.
T20, as we often say, is a helter-skelter format where favourites get downed all the time. Indeed, we have a rule about not touching anyone at 1.65 or shorter. But you can throw Karachi into that mix for this one. It’s a horrific price.
In the group section they had a fifty-fifty record. That makes them an even money chance if we’re being crude. They also had the second most expensive bowling attack (by just two runs) in the section so they are hardly an all-round performer.
Islamabad also have a fifty-fifty record. And they were the most expensive bowling team. The two finished level on points. In short, they are as good, or bad, as each other.
It is true that Karachi won both of the head-to-heads. But they chased in each of those games. And that brings us back to the toss bias. In total, 12 of 18 were won by the chaser so it was a major advantage to stick a team in and watch them wallow.
So if Islamabad bat second against Karachi, we would argue they rate a terrific bet to book a final spot in Lahore.
As for the final, Karachi will be without Kumar Sangakkara if they get there because of security concerns. Chris Gayle and Kieron Pollard could join him. It means we wonder about their mindset with key men perhaps already mentally checking out.
There has also been talk about foreign players being offered cash incentives to play in the final, something which is certain to cause unrest. As one player said “A life is a life” regardless of how good a cricketer they are.
A top match batsman market might provide some fun for those wanting to play bigger odds. Gayle is 7 with Skybet but considering Dwayne Smith and Babar Azam are the same price and they are Nos 1 and 2 in the run lists, he couldn’t be called value.
Shoaib Malik, the Karachi middle-order wise man, might tempt some at 10 (Paddy Power). He has a good season and these wickets suit his style.
Calculators
