Historically this fixture has been too tight to call. Of the last 158 games (going back to the 1909/10 season) there have been 58 wins for Tottenham, 48 for Everton and 52 draws. Hardly a resounding statistical advantage for either side.
Beyond the similarity in results between these two, these clubs do share some interesting traits. Both have managers they brought in from Southampton. Both like to promote players from their youth teams. Both clubs have a history of playing good football and both have a striker in excellent form right now.
As in previous games, separating these two sides could be difficult in this match. These two played out a 1-1 draw earlier in the season, a repeat of the result from the 2015/16 match and I wouldn’t bet against it happening again in this one.
Statistically, Spurs are the stronger side and as the home team, you have to think they have a slight advantage going into this one. Tottenham have the 2nd best home record in the league this season, the fifth-best attack (Everton have the sixth), the best defense (Everton are ranked fourth) and Spurs have taken over 100 more shots on goal this season than Everton. Spurs have scored in 13 consecutive home matches (in the league) while Everton drew a blank against Middlesbrough last time they traveled away from Goodison Park.
Considering how close these two have been to each other in the past I do think the Match Odds market is a little out of whack. The green listed bookmakers have Spurs down as favorites and I’m ok with that but to have them as low as 1.63 (average odds) and then a big hike to 3.97 for the draw seems unbalanced to me. For me that gives us plenty of value on the draw side of the equation and at 4.2 with Pinnacle I’m struggling to find a reason not to go for it.
I’m going to sit on this one for a bit, though. Tottenham saw both of their main central defenders withdrawn in the win against Stoke and there is some doubt as to whether one or both will be able to play. If there do turn out to be some injuries affecting the starting XI for either side then I might need to rethink my choices. I don’t see the Match Odds market moving too drastically though so this is one that can wait.
One thing I am prepared to look at early on is the goals market. I think this game will go over 2.5 goals and we’ll see the majority of those goals coming in the first half. With that in mind, I’m going for Over 1.5 Goals in the first half. You can get odds of 2.7 with BetVictor for that and with the two hottest strikers in the league, this one stands a good chance of coming in at excellent odds.
Calculators
