This tie between Leicester and Sevilla is delicately poised and probably the most intriguing match left in the last 16 of the Champions League. Leicester did very well to come away from the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan Stadium with a vital away goal and only trailing 2-1 on aggregate and will be full of confidence going into this game as they are in the middle of a revival. Sevilla are a lot better at home than on the road, and this one really could go either way.
Sevilla are the best team at home in all of La Liga – better than Real Madrid, better than Barcelona, better than Atletico Madrid – and that has led to them really pushing for the title this season. It is a trend that has gone on for a while now: they are very, very good at home. So for Claudio Ranieri’s relegation-threatened Premiership champions to go there and only lose 2-1 was a real achievement. Sadly for Ranieri, who captured the hearts of neutrals around the world by defying odds of 5,000/1 to win an improbable league title last season, it was not enough to save his job and he was sacked with the Foxes just above the relegation zone.
Since he went Leicester have massively improved. Under Craig Shakespeare, who has been given the job until the end of the season, they have won both their games. First, they beat high-flying Liverpool 3-1 and played like the Leicester of last season, full of pace, dynamism, and energy. Then they beat Hull 3-1. They are really in form right now and that makes this look like a really fascinating game.
Unfortunately for Leicester, Sevilla have actually improved considerably away from home this season. Last campaign they were near the top of the La Liga home table but near the bottom of the away table and only just scraped into the Champions League places. This season they have the third best away record, after Barca and Real, having won seven, drawn four and lost three on the road. They did well in the Champions League group stage, winning away at Dynamo Zagreb, drawing at Lyon and – most impressive of all – drawing at Juventus.
After finishing second in their group they would have been pleased to be drawn against Leicester, hardly the most fearsome of the group winners and locked in a relegation battle. They have a bit of breathing room now after those back-to-back wins, but Premiership survival is by no means guaranteed and that has to be the priority for Leicester. They will still approach this one with focus and determination, though, you imagine, as they have seemingly rediscovered their mojo since Ranieri left.
Away from the outrights, a good bet looks to be both teams to score. Leicester have scored in eight of their last 11 at home and conceded in 10 of them. Sevilla have scored in four-fifths of their away games in that time and conceded in 70% of them. Both teams to score is 1.62 with Bet365 and 1.65 with 10Bet.
If you figure that Sevilla will score, that would mean Leicester would need two to force extra time and three to win it. That could be a tall order and you would fancy Sevilla to qualify, although the odds are poor – 1.29 is the best price you can get and that does not seem worth bothering with.
It really could go either way and it might be worth staying clear of the outrights, as Leicester are unpredictable at present. Neither side plays defensively and you would expect to see goals, and it is likely to finish 1-1 or perhaps 2-1 to one of them, so both teams to score covers you there and the price looks quite good.
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