There are some real blockbuster ties in the Champions League quarter-finals as Real Madrid meet Bayern Munich and Barcelona play Juventus, but this is arguably the most exciting tie of the round. Monaco and Borussia Dortmund are not as heralded as the other teams left in the competition, but they are the most exciting to watch. Both have brought a brand of swashbuckling, dynamic, attacking brand of football to the Champions League this season, and it promises to be a thrilling tie.
Barcelona’s famous comeback against PSG in the last 16 will live long in the memory, but the most exhilarating tie was Monaco v Man City. Leonardo Jardim’s men went down 5-3 at The Etihad, but a 3-1 win in the reverse fixture gave them a sensational win on away goals after leveling it 6-6 on aggregate. At times they were defensively naïve – further evidence of this was on show when they lost the French cup final 4-1 to PSG recently – but they were phenomenal going forwards. Kylian Mbappe was virtually unplayable, Radamel Falcao rolled back the years and Bernardo Silva was full of trickery, while the full-backs looked like they were playing on motorbikes.
Dortmund have been the leading goalscorers in the Champions League this year. They broke the record for the most goals ever scored in a group stage, banging in 21, which put them ahead of the great teams of Man Utd in 1998-99, Barcelona in 2011-12 and Real Madrid in 2013-14. That included 6-0 and 8-4 wins over Legia Warsaw, while they drew 2-2 with Real Madrid twice. They kept it up in the knockout phase of the tournament, recovering from a 1-0 defeat in the first leg against Benfica to win 4-0 in the second leg. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored a hat-trick and is now tipped to be the first ever player to break the £100 million transfer fee barrier, and he is ably supported by the likes of Christian Pulisic and Ousmane Dembele.
Dortmund have injury problems ahead of the tie, however. Marco Reus has been injured and they have missed him badly, while Mario Gotze is also missing. They lost Mats Hummels to Bayern in the summer and have not properly replaced him, so they have been conceding too many goals. They shipped four against Bayern at the weekend, and that 4-1 defeat will not exactly leave them full of confidence going into this game. They are the favourites, best priced at 7/10 with Coral, but those odds look a little low to risk. One option could be to give Monaco a +1 Asian handicap and take odds of 3/4 with Bet365. Monaco acquitted themselves very well against Man City and against a depleted Dortmund it would be a surprise if they were to lose by more than one goal.
But the most logical bet has to be over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. These two have been sensational going forwards and poor defensively, and there is no reason why that should not continue. After Pep Guardiola told the press that Man City – who were 5-3 up on aggregate – would have to score in Monaco to go through, he was admitting that Monaco would score at least twice and he would send his team out to try to get goals. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals was the logical bet then and it paid off.
Now Dortmund boss Thomas Tuchel is making similar noises. “Monaco are a bit like us: spectacular, attack-minded and strong, and their squad is a similar age to ours,” he said. “They play at a very high tempo and, in addition to individual talent, they have a very strong team ethic. I think it\’s safe to say we won\’t have two 0-0 draws – both teams are too interested in scoring and pushing themselves to the limit.”
He is expecting a goal fest and the 7/10 at green listed bookmaker Coral is offering on both teams to score and over 2.5 goals look like great bets. Two of the most exciting strikers in Europe are in action and both Aubameyang and Mbappe look good bets at 8/11 and 11/4 respectively to score at any time with Betfred. That 11/4 looks particularly generous.
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