If there is one game that seems to hold more importance in the Spanish football league calendar (and arguably the entire world) then it’s the matches between Real Madrid and Barcelona, otherwise known as El Clásico.
This particular game seems to take on a little more importance as it comes hot on the heels of the Champions League quarter-finals where the two clubs had very different results. Real Madrid beat the much fancied Bayern Munich but Barcelona lost to Juve over 2 legs and went out of the competition with a bit of a whisper.
If you ignore home bias then Barcelona has done very well out of these matches historically with 26 wins and 17 draws out of the last 61 league and cup fixtures featuring these two. Considering Barcelona spent a fair chunk of time as one of the “also-rans” of Spanish football that’s a very impressive record.
If we do look at the results for games played at Real Madrid’s home stadium then things get a lot more even. Of the last 29 matches played at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, 10 have been won by Real Madrid, 11 have been won by Barcelona and there have been 8 draws.
Recent matches have been fairly tight affairs with the occasional knockout performance, Barcelona won 4-0 away from home last season with Suarez, Neymar and Iniesta all getting on the scoresheet. Real Madrid won 3-1 the season before that with Ronaldo opening the scoring from the penalty spot. Don’t be surprised if this one sees both sides scoring (just 1.36 with Bet365) and less than 2 goals splitting the two sides.
This is a big game for Barcelona, arguably bigger than for Real Madrid. They need to show that they can bounce back from adversity and pick up the hard points when it counts. It would also help keep things tight at the top as a hoe victory would mean the Madrid side moving 6 points ahead of Barça at a time when games are running out. That’s not even considering Real Madrid’s game in hand!
There is just one point separating these two sides over the last 5 games. The round where Real Madrid drew with city rivals Atletico Madrid, Barcelona lost to Malaga, spurning the opportunity to pick up more points.
The difference between these two statistically is pretty slim. Real have the best home record in the league. Barcelona (+225 at Pinnacle) have the second best (behind Real Madrid) away record. Neither side has lost two league games back to back and both have had a max winning run of 6 successive games. Both sides longest run of games without a win was 3 and each scored 6 goals in their biggest win of the season so far.
This is a tough game to call and it’s only the momentum of the two sides that is seeing me opt for Real Madrid. Home advantage doesn’t mean too much in games like this as both sides would love to get a win on enemy soil but Barcelona seem to be on a downwards trajectory while Real Madrid seem to heading in the opposite direction.
Whatever result we see in this game there are two decisions that will determine the fate of future titles, who will succeed Luis Enrique and can Leo Messi be persuaded to stick it out at Barcelona when clubs around the world are queuing up to offer him a huge (not just big) money move away.
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