Man City were frustrated in their 0-0 draw with Man Utd on Thursday and now face a serious fight to finish in the top four, with Utd and Arsenal hot on their heels. They now face a Middlesbrough side that are all but relegated, so they should take three points to boost their chances. There is not much value in a City win, however, so you have to dig a little deeper to find some attractive betting options.
A top four finish is the least Man City should be achieving, when you consider how much money they spent in the summer and how well they started the campaign. But defensive failings have cost them time and time again, and they are well off the pace in the title race. Having been dumped out of both cup competitions and knocked out of the Champions League by Monaco, this will be Pep Guardiola’s first ever trophy-less season in eight years as a manager. Many people were tipping him to win the league after he bolstered the an already strong squad in the summer with expensive talent like Leroy Sane, John Stones and Gabriel Jesus, but it has not worked out for him at all. Man City have been left well behind by Chelsea and Tottenham, and are now just a only a few points above Arsenal and just one above Jose Mourinho’s Man Utd, who held them to that well-fought draw and have made up considerable ground on City.
It has been a poor season for Man City fans, but it can all be put into perspective when you consider the form of Middlesbrough. They are second from bottom and six points below safety with just four games left to play, but the turgid manner of their football has been even worse than their results. Boro have hit the back of the net just 24 times in 34 games. That is the worst attacking record in the Premiership. Even rock bottom Sunderland have scored more times than them. Middlesbrough have conceded fewer goals than any other team in the bottom half of the table, but you are going to concede a relatively low amount of goals if you show as little attacking ambition as Middlesbrough have this season. They have sat very deep in most of their games and not had a go at the opposition, and it has been a painful season back in the top flight for fans.
There have been high points, such as the draw with Arsenal, and a really great result was the 1-1 draw they earned against Man City in Manchester back in November. City have already gained revenge, beating them 2-0 in the FA Cup final, and can put the nail in the coffin here. After sacking Aitor Karanka, Middlesbrough have been a bit more ambitious under caretaker manager Steve Agnew, but they have still been poor. A 1-0 win over lowly Sunderland in their last game was a positive development, but nothing to write home about given the Black Cats’ woes, and Boro are just 1/100 to be relegated.
All told City should win this, but the best odds you can get are 1/3 with William Hill. Middlesbrough are a massive 12/1 with Bet365, which may tempt some, but that seems unadvisable. You could give City a handicap to get more value. To get anywhere close to evens, you have to go to Man City -1.5 on the Asian handicap, which is 11/13 with Bet Victor. You would expect City to play with more freedom than they did against Man Utd, and cover that handicap, but another way to look at it might be Man City winning in a low scoring game, considering how typically Boro are involved in low scoring affairs. Man City and the under 3.5 goals is 13/10 with Stan James, amog other green listed bookmakers. A less risky Man City and under 4.5 goals is 4/6 with Sky Bet.
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