Tottenham are 14 points clear of bitter rivals Arsenal and that is a remarkable achievement at this stage of the season. For the first time since the mid-1990s they are going to finish ahead of Arsenal, and it will be a moment to savour for long-suffering Spurs fans. But north London bragging rights are at stake first in a derby that comes at a time when both teams are desperate for three points.
Tottenham are the only team that can realistically catch Premiership leaders Chelsea and they are just four points behind the Blues with five games left to go. Arsenal meanwhile are in the unfamiliar position of being outside the top four at this point of the season, but they are closing in on the teams above them after securing back-to-back wins in their last league games. A draw is not much good for either side, so they will both be trying to take all three points.
Unfortunately for Mauricio Pocchetino and Arsene Wenger, the last three meetings between these sides have finished as draws. It is hard to look past it becoming four draws in a row here as Arsenal seem to know how to get a result against Spurs.
On paper Tottenham have by far the better team. For the first time in two decades, Tottenham fans can win that argument with their fierce local rivals. Hugo Lloris is slightly better than the ageing Petr Cech. Tottenham’s full-backs, Kyle Walker and Danny Rose, have been exceptional this season, while Hector Bellerin and Nacho Monreal have struggled. Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen have formed a fine partnership in central defence, and while Arsenal have a top centre-half in Laurent Koscielny, there are question marks over the rest of their defenders. Where Tottenham should really dominate this game is in central midfield. Victor Wanyama and Moussa Dembele are big, strong, energetic and good on the ball. Arsenal’s options are small, flimsy and poor by comparison. Aaron Ramsey, Granit Xhaka and Francis Coquelin have all endured very poor seasons, while Mohammed Elneny has not played much. Spurs have a superb striker in Harry Kane, and he is surely better than Olivier Giroud. Even Dele Alli, PFA young player of the year, has proved far more effective than Arsenal’s record signing, Mesut Ozil, this season. The only Arsenal player that would get in the Tottenham side on paper seems to be Alexis Sanchez, although Christian Eriksen has enjoyed a fine campaign for Tottenham.
Looking at it like that, Spurs should capitalise on home advantage and win. But often football does not go according to who has the better players on paper, and the managers’ tactics could have a huge impact. Arsenal have returned to winning ways – beating Middlesbrough, Man City and Leicester – by switching to a three at the back, deploying wing-backs and sacrificing one midfielder. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain was immense in the Man City game, and could cause Tottenham all sorts of problems. Arsenal also have all sorts of options off the bench, with Theo Walcott’s pace, Giroud’s aerial ability and Lucas Perez’s trickery. Tottenham did dominate the midfield in the last meeting between these sides, but while they are a more solid and compact team, Arsenal have it within them to play better passing football. Tottenham should win, but that does not mean they will, and at odds of below evens it looks a risky bet. Not that you would fancy Arsenal to win, as Tottenham have the league’s best defensive record and best home record. Indeed, they are unbeaten at White Hart Lane all season, winning 15 and drawing 2. Tottenham draw no bet would be an option, but there is little value there, so the draw does look appealing at 3/1 with William Hill and Bet Victor, as does the 7/1 at Bet365 on a 1-1 draw.
It might actually be wise to ignore the outrights and look at other betting options. Kane has regularly proved a thorn in Arsenal’s side in recent times and can be backed at even money with Sky Bet and Coral, among other green listed bookmakers, to score at any time. Both teams to score also looks good at 8/15 with 10Bet.
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