Saturday sees the first test in the three-match series between the All Blacks and the British Lions, a game in which the Lions start as 7/2 and 10 point handicap underdogs.
New Zealand are of course worthy favourites, defending world champions and with a fantastic record at Eden Park, where they haven’t lost since 1994.
The Lions have lost two games on tour, narrowly to the Blues and Highlanders with a side primarily made up of players not selected for the 23 in the first test and their first choice side or close to it has grown into the tour displaying two major strengths a) their set piece has been dominant and b) the defence stifling.
The view has been though that this will not be sufficient to beat the All Blacks in New Zealand, the tourists need to score tries and points and have an attacking threat and it is here where there are more questions, with the Lions not being that impressive so far on tour.
Gatland though has picked on form not reputation in the back three and if it comes off the combination of Williams, Daly and Watson could cause the hosts some problems.
As Ireland showed in Chicago last year when they beat the All Blacks, dominate the set-piece, particularly the line-out , and New Zealand are as vulnerable as any side. If the hosts achieve parity at set-piece time, they could win by 20 points. On the generally-available handicap line of 10 and 11 if the All Blacks score first then the Lions could be in for a torrid time as they are not best equipped to play catch-up rugby, outside of Farrell chipping away with the boot.
The Lions though have always been competitive in the first 40 minutes of their tour matches to date never leading or losing by much. In their tour matches at half time, the Lions were 7-6 down in the opener, losing 12-10 to the Blues, drawing 10-10 against the Highlanders, and were 9-3, 12-10 and 13-6 up against the Crusaders, Maoris and the Chiefs respectively. The impact of the bench could be crucial in determining whether the Lions stay in touch later in the game and here, with Itoje notably in the wings, the Lions look to be strong
However, the challenge is massive. New Zealand have won 29 out of 29 home games since Steve Hansen took charge with 1010 pts scored, 372 conceded. Furthermore, New Zealand have outscored opponents 279-91 in the final 20 minutes of those 29 home games (91-0 in the last 6).
So my focus here is to avoid the overall points handicap, and steer clear of the second half. I expect the Lions set piece and defence combined with the boot of Owen Farrell to keep to close in the first part of the game and the 15/8 offered by Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power among other green listed bookmakers about New Zealand winning the first half by 1-7 points, only, looks more than fair.
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