In the next few days, there could be some serious price movements on the Ashes market as punters look to make predictions entirely unrelated to what actually happens on a cricket field.
If you’ve been living under a rock this week, you will not have heard about the calamity that Ben Stokes, England’s talismanic all-rounder, has inflicted upon himself. After England’s ODI win over West Indies in Bristol, he went out to some pubs and clubs in the city and had a good time. And then, allegedly, he got involved in an altercation which led to his arrest.
Since then he was suspended for the final two matches against West Indies. But, since then, a shocking video has emerged of his apparent involvement and the England management are beginning to feel pressure to ditch Stokes completely. So he has been suspended indefinitely pending a full investigation.
This is what punters will be wagering on. If England does give Stokes the heave-ho, they can almost certainly kiss goodbye to any hope of winning Down Under – the five-Test series starts in November.
Australia, currently, are 1.57 on Betfair to win. Now if Stokes were to be ruled out, either through the England and Wales Cricket Board taking punitive action or the police charging Stokes, then we could expect Australia to shorten dramatically, probably to 1.33. There’s value here somewhere, no matter how distasteful it seems.
These are not fun margins, though, are they? We want some chunky price moves. Well, look no further than the correct score market. The whitewash (this is another term for a five-zip drubbing), which England suffered the last time they played a series in the country, is chalked up at 15.0 with 21Bet. Those boys are already taking something of a chance as William Hill go 11.0.
Without Stokes, we could see 9.0 being available. Again, value. It’s also worth pointing out that England have been beaten 5-0 twice in their last three series there.
We’re increasingly keen on the 4-0 scoreline which comes in at 15.00 with Betfair. That’s because, although Australia are stronger, they might not be able to keep their pacemen fit for a series which is brutal in length and intensity.
With Stokes or without, by the way, England are likely to really struggle to take 20 wickets in hot and humid conditions. And 3-0 looks a runner at 26.0, also with green listed bookmaker Betfair.
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