The Champions League has not been an easy place to go searching for profit recently. The favourites often win and they bookies have profited from those trying to find the games where things will go awry.
Of course there is the occasional shock results, this is football after all, but sometimes it’s in the game you least expect. I had no idea Qarabag would get a point from Atletico Madrid, even if they were at home. Basel winning away at CSKA Moscow was equally unexpected. It takes a bit of a shift in direction to bet on Champions League football and that’s not always easy to do.
With that said, let’s look at this week’s games.
Chelsea and Roma played out an entertaining draw 2 weeks ago and a draw is probably the likely result this time around. Neither side is playing to their potential right now and could cancel each other out. No bet for me.
Qarabag picked up a highly unexpected point against Atletico Madrid last time out. I can’t see that happening again but there are not a lot of bets actually worth following. One that is worth looking at is Antoine Griezmann to score at any time. He is Atletico’s most likely goal scorer and is good at picking out spaces even against packed defenses. William Hill are offering 1.7 for this. Take it.
Basel winning against CSKA Moscow, in Moscow, was really quite bizarre. That one still has me thrown so I’m not betting on this one.
Celtic v Bayern Munich actually seems quite straightforward to me. Bayern to Win To Nil is at 2.7 with BetVictor. That seems like a gift to me and is not one I’m going to pass up.
I’m really tempted to bet on a draw in the Manchester United v Benfica game but that’s probably me just being contrary. Manchester United were not good against Spurs but they got the one goal that made the difference. This game could be the same. I’m on Benfica +1.5 for this one at 1.88 with BetVictor.
The rest of Tuesday night’s games just hold no value for me so I’m avoiding them and moving on to Wednesday.
Immediately, there are some games to skip here. I’ll be honest. I’m not betting in Besiktas v Monaco (no faith in Monaco right now and not seen enough of Besiktas), Dortmund v APOEL (just no value) or Shakhtar Donetsk v Feyenoord (not seen enough of either side).
That does leave us some interesting matches though.
FC Porto are not as good as they once were and they will find the running tough against an RB Leipzig side that seems to be getting their act together. I like the straight RB Leipzig win and the odds of 3.49 with Pinnacle are in my sweet spot.
Liverpool hit Maribor for 7 in an away game. Back at Anfield, who knows how far this could go? Liverpool -3.5 at 1.95 with bet365 is all I’ll ask for.
Napoli are a good side but Manchester City are potentially a great side and I don’t understand the odds of 2.5. I am all over this one.
If the odds were better I’d be backing Sevilla against Spartak Moscow. As it is I just have to move on as I don’t fancy taking a handicap in this one.
Finally, we’re on to Tottenham Hotspur v Real Madrid. As you may know, I’m a Spurs fan but that doesn’t mean I’m averse to betting against my own side when the odds are right. In this instance, I think the odds are right with Real Madrid being priced at 2.12 with Pinnacle. Anything above evens is good value here so see what you can get at your bookie.
As always though, be careful and don’t bet with money you can’t afford to lose.
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