Sometimes successful sports betting can be about who not to pick, rather than to decipher who will win a market. After all, it’s better not to bet at all rather than some misguided punt on a favourite who is going to lose you your money. It’s a win of sorts.
Our job here is to try to make sure you don’t lose. Betting James Anderson to be England’s top wicket-taker in their five-Test Ashes series, which starts at Brisbane’s Gabba at the end of the month, is one of those wallet savers.
Anderson is a best-priced 3 with Stan James at the head of affairs. He is as short as 2.6 with William Hill. It is not surprising to see Anderson as favourite. He is England’s most successful pacer and is rated as the No 1 bowler in the world. The guy can play, that is not in doubt.
But what should be in doubt is his status as jolly here. Anderson’s record in Australia is poor, verging on dreadful. In countries where he played five Tests or more, Anderson only fares worse in South Africa. Down Under each of his wickets have cost 38.4 runs as opposed to 39.9 in South Africa.
Those numbers are not worthy of favourite status. Consider his career average – 27.3. The leap by more than ten runs in Australia is huge. Likewise his strike rate (number of balls per wicket). In his career, it is healthy 55.8. But on Australia soil, it shoots up to a scruffy 69.3.
Three times Anderson has toured Australia, and only once has he had a good series. In 2006-07 he returned home with a hammering. His five solitary wickets cost 88 each. Four years later he returned as part of a dynamic and professional England set-up, who won in the country for the first time since 1986. Understandably, he did well nailing 24 batsmen.
Three years later, however, Anderson was struggling again as England were humiliated 5-0. He took 14 wickets at just shy of 44 runs each.
So why does Anderson, a highly-skilled and experienced bowler find it so hard? Well, it is purely and simply down to the type of wickets and the Kookaburra ball which can be found in Australia. The surfaces are flat and hard. And the ball, after about 20 overs, stops swinging.
Anderson is a swing bowler. He is possibly the greatest there has ever been. But when it doesn’t swing, he is just straight up and down and carries very little threat. This is the chief reason why England have, barring the odd outlier, been consistently well-beaten Down Under. Their bowlers are not schooled in such conditions.
So if you want an alternative to Anderson it is best to go with a bowler whose stock in trade is not swing. Instead, you want a shock bowler. Someone who can bounce players out or beat them with sheer pace.
England don’t really have one of those. The closest they have got, though, is Steve Finn at +2000 with Betway. Or the ingenue Craig Overton at +2500 (Bet365). Both are considered reserve picks but don’t be surprised if by the start of the first Test England have to gamble on something different.
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