The history books suggest Burnley may as well not turn up to play Arsenal at home on Sunday in the Premier League. They have not won in nine attempts, a sequence which stretches back to 1974. That includes five defeats and one draw in the EPL era.
In terms of club size, fanbase, bank balance, stadium and potential for silverware it is, of course, a mismatch. It’s little old Burnley versus the big boys from the city. But wait. Burnley and Arsenal are level on points in the league standings, Arsene Wenger’s men only ahead on goal difference.
So should we not be reckoning that the +550 (Bet365) about a home win is value? On league form alone it is not difficult to make a case. Indeed, Sean Dyche’s team have won three consecutive top-flight matches for the first time since 1975. So much for the history books.
And this is exactly the sort of contest which cosmopolitan Arsenal come unstuck in. As much as it is an acid test for Burnley’s upturn in fortunes, the same can be said of Arsenal. Sure, they are buoyant following the 2-0 win over deadly rivals Tottenham Hotspur last week at the Emirates but they won’t find it so easy to get ‘up’ for this one.
Burnley will be physical and aggressive. They will snarl and bite into tackles, denying Arsenal space and time to think and breathe. It will be unpleasant for them. Consistently in the past Arsenal have failed such a test and it has to be said that the -162 with Betfred looks stinking value about a Gunners win. Wenger knows what is coming. “You know, they have won games with 30, 35 percent possession – that means they know what they want to do and are patient to have that killing instinct of a snake,” he said. “They put you to that pace and suddenly they bite you.”
We are keen on the stalemate at decent odds from the best green-listed bookmakers. Bet365, Sportingbet, Paddy Power and Betway all offer +350.
We know how Burnley will play so it is highly likely that chances will be at a premium. And this is borne out in some of their stats. There have been just seven goals in six league matches at Turf Moor and Burnley have six clean sheets in their last nine.
Add this to a pot where Arsenal’s away form is tepid – 17 points in 16 attempts on the road in the calendar year – and it is impossible to fancy Arsenal.
So other odds which attract the eye are Burnley +0.75 on the Asian handicap at +128 with Unibet. A half-goal start with Unibet and 888Sport at +165 is not too shabby, either.
If you want a bigger, better, blockbuster of a correct score, the smart money is on a 1-1 draw at +775 with 10Bet.
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