Champions League draw analysis
The Champions League draw has thrown up a number of mouth-watering last-16 ties and caused huge fluctuations in the outright betting markets. Favourites PSG were drawn against reigning champions and the Parisians are therefore no longer the favourites. That honour goes to Man City, who earned a comfortable tie against Swiss side Basel, but it was a mixed bag for Premiership clubs. There are some real heavyweight clashes to look forward to and plenty of value on offer for punters.
Who did well in the draw?
Runaway Premiership leaders Man City got an extremely kind draw and are best priced at just 1/10 with Bet Victor to progress to the quarter-finals. Liverpool also did well to avoid any big hitters as they will face Porto in the last 16. It could not have gone much better for German champions Bayern Munich, who finished second in their group and will have been relieved to face Besiktas, the weakest group winner on paper. Roma and Shakhtar Donetsk will be pleased to avoid any European royalty but the winner of that game will probably be annihilated in the quarters. Man Utd were also handed a pretty comfortable tie against Sevilla, who finished fourth in La Liga last season and were thrashed 5-0 by Real Madrid at the weekend.
Who was cursing the draw?
There are three ties that stand out as blockbuster clashes: Real v PSG, Barcelona v Chelsea and Juventus v Tottenham. It is terrible luck for PSG to have been drawn against Real Madrid at such an early stage, despite winning their group. Despite finishing above Real, Spurs were extremely unfortunate to be drawn against Italian champions Juve, who reached the final last season. Meanwhile, Barcelona were handed a really tough draw against the Premiership champions, whose energetic midfield will cause them plenty to think about over two legs.
How has the draw affected the outright odds?
PSG went from 7/2 favourites all the way out to 11/2 with 888 Sport after being drawn against Cristiano Ronaldo and co. The odds on Real have also drifted out to 9/1 with Ladbrokes and that looks extremely attractive as they have won this competition for the last two seasons and seem to come good in the knockout stages. City are now just 3/1 with Betway, Bet Victor and 888 Sport after being handed an extremely kind draw against Basel. They are running away with the Premiership and can afford to really go for the Champions League too, so it is understandable to see the price drop so low on them. Barcelona are out to 15/2 with Betway, while Juventus are 20/1 with Sky Bet and Betfred and Spurs are 25/1 with various Green-Listed Bookmakers. The odds on Man Utd and Liverpool have plummeted 14/1 and 16/1 respectively after they secured generous draws.
Where does the early value lie?
After drifting all the way out to 9/1, Real Madrid look great value in the outrights. They have made a slow start to the season but looked back to their imperious best when beating Sevilla, and Cristiano Ronaldo will frighten the life out of PSG’s defenders. After Spurs got the better of Real Madrid and beat Borussia Dortmund home and away in their group, punters may fancy the 5/4 that Bet Victor is offering on them to qualify against Juventus. Max Allegri’s team have gone backwards this season after losing Leonardo Bonucci to Milan, and Tottenham have an excellent team provided everyone is free of injury. Liverpool are 16/11 to secure an away win against Porto in their first leg and that looks interesting after they thrashed Spartak Moscow 7-0 last time out. Shakhtar Donestsk qualified at the expense of Napoli and may well surprise Roma in the last 16, so 24/13 on them qualifying with 10Bet looks good value.
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