South Africa and India begin a three-Test series in Cape Town on Friday. The Test format is desperate for a competitive heat but, unfortunately, it could take a while to warm-up.
That’s because of the state of the Newlands pitch. Traditionally one which helps out the home bowlers – they have lost only four times there since 1993 – it could be a bland, dry and very flat surface.
They’ve had no problems in the Western Province with the mercury rising. There is currently a drought in the region, which could mean that batting is very easy indeed, just as it was two years ago when South Africa and England produced a bore draw.
Vernon Philander, the South Africa pacer, sounded very down about the prospect of having to bend his back for long stints in the field: “I have played all my life here. I’ve seen a lot of similar wickets and they haven’t done much. Obviously there\’s a little bit of grass there, but I don’t think it’s going to scare anyone.”
So how can we make some of this insight pay off? The best advice is to have a couple of wagers on the top-bat markets at BMR’s green-listed bookmakers.
South Africa run machine Hashim Amla has a great record at Newlands. He is +333 with Stan James to claim the honours, and that’s a bigger price than AB De Villiers, who he has a superior average to on the ground.
Amla has the exact sort of temperament to thrive on a featherbed. He lives for batting, and while the flashier models like AB will play their shots and score runs more quickly (taking a few risks on the way) Amla will be relentless. He will keep going on and on.
For India, we like Chet Pujara at +350 with Stan James as we look to get the jolly, Virat Kohli, beat at +333 (same firm). There is nothing wrong with Kohli’s ability (he is probably the best in the world) but Pujara has a similar attitude to Amla.
He thrives away from home and boasts a superior average to Kohli on the road in the last three years by more than 20 runs. That’s a huge gap.
Also in Pujara’s favour is that opening batsmen are at their most vulnerable in South Africa more than any other country in the world. So as much as we respect Shikhar Dhawan, Murali Vijay and KL Rahul (they have to perm three to two), we can build a case for ignoring them.
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