NFL Pick: Philadelphia Eagles to Draft Bijan Robinson (+750) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The NFL draft always leads to many disagreements on prospects, but most experts seem to be on the same page when it comes to one position this year. Texas running back Bijan Robinson is considered the only first-round running back in the 2023 draft class.
Where does Robinson end up on draft night? A top-rated US sportsbook like BetOnline has the odds for all 32 teams, of which one will select Robinson. Leading the way are:
- Washington Commanders (+450)
- LA Chargers (+500)
- Dallas Cowboys (+500)
Meanwhile, at the bottom with +10000 odds each:
- Carolina Panthers
- Seattle Seahawks
- Cleveland Browns
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Indianapolis Colts
The last four can be explained by the prolific running back already in town, while the Panthers obviously traded up to No. 1 for a quarterback.
Let’s break down the betting odds for the running back market and what the best bet is for Robinson’s landing spot.
Is Bijan Robinson a First-Round Pick?
A good development for the NFL has been understanding that the running back position can consistently be found later in the draft. In the 2006-08 drafts, there were 11 running backs drafted in the first round. In the last 10 drafts since 2013, there have been 12 first-round running backs selected.
Trent Richardson was such a bad pick by the 2012 Browns – and an even worse subsequent trade to Indianapolis – that it seemed to change how the league values the position. No running backs were drafted in the first round in 2013 and 2014, and it happened again in 2022.
But of the last seven running backs to get drafted in the first round since 2018, Saquon Barkley (No. 2) is the only one to be drafted higher than No. 24. This suggests the days of taking running backs in the top 10 may be few and far between, but most experts do agree that Bijan Robinson is likely to go in the top 25 picks this year.
Robinson’s Achievements
As a 2020 freshman at Texas, Robinson averaged an absurd 8.2 yards per carry on 86 runs. He rushed for 1,127 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 5.8 yards per carry in 2021.
In his last college season, Robinson rushed for 1,580 yards, 18 touchdowns, 6.1 yards per carry, and he even averaged 16.5 yards per catch on 19 grabs. Robinson finished his college career with 60 catches for 805 yards and 8 touchdowns, so he is a two-way threat.
With the ability to be explosive as a runner and receiving back, Robinson should make the offense that selects him happy. But he could be a luxury pick for a team with few flaws that is looking for an upgrade. He is unlikely to be the savior for any struggling offense; the NFL is just not built that way anymore for a running back to have that much influence like in past eras.
Washington Commanders: The Favorite (+450)
Some mock drafts have the Commanders taking Robinson with the No. 16 pick, but this is a team that already has Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson as a competent duo.
With a No. 1 wideout (Terry McLaurin) and plenty of front-seven defenders locked up, it would at least be understandable why the Commanders would splurge on a back to help young quarterback Sam Howell.
Other Realistic Options (+500 to +1000 Odds)
There are six more teams with odds between +500 and +1000 to land Robinson.
- Los Angeles Chargers (+500): Austin Ekeler is already a receiving stud and touchdown magnet. Give Justin Herbert help on defense.
- Dallas Cowboys (+500): Will the team learn its lesson after overpaying Ezekiel Elliott? Taking Robinson at No. 27 would not be the worst pick ever, but let Tony Pollard do this job.
- Philadelphia Eagles (+750): Miles Sanders is gone, leaving a so-so trio with Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott, and Rashaad Penny. With picks No. 10 and No. 30 in the first round, the Eagles are a definite contender to make this move.
- Atlanta Falcons (+800): Few offenses were as run-focused as Atlanta last year, but Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson make a competent backfield for a team that has plenty of holes elsewhere to fill with the No. 8 pick.
- Cincinnati Bengals (+900): Between losing third-down back Samaje Perine and the uncertainty with Joe Mixon’s future, Robinson would be a very interesting pickup with the No. 28 pick the Bengals hold in the first round.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1000): With Tom Brady and Leonard Fournette gone in the backfield, where does this team go from here? Robinson could be the start of a new era, but this team has way too many holes to use a No. 19 pick on a running back.
Keep an eye on the Eagles and Bengals here as playoff-ready teams who could splurge on the running back.
Teams in the Mix (+1400 to +4500 Odds)
There are 15 teams with odds wavering between +1400 and +4500 to take Robinson in this draft. We look at a few of the possible landing spots below with the team’s draft pick listed.
- 12. Houston Texans (+2500): Assuming the Texans get their new franchise quarterback with the No. 2 pick, a three-down back might make sense too for a team badly in need of skill players. However, Dameon Pierce was good enough as a rookie, and they added Devin Singletary (Bills), so the team would be better off going with a wide receiver with this pick.
- 14. New England Patriots (+2000): No. 14 might be high for a running back at this stage of Bill Belichick’s career, but the team is run heavier without Tom Brady, and it did lose Damien Harris. Rhamondre Stevenson has some big games, but this one would not be a shock for an offense that still needs explosive players.
- 27. Buffalo Bills (+1800): Is Buffalo’s indifference to taking the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands in big games because it does not trust the back enough? Robinson could solve that problem for the team as a true luxury pick while improving the position for them. However, James Cook and newly acquired Damien Harris (Patriots) are there, too.
- 29. New Orleans Saints (+1400): With Alvin Kamara getting older and possibly facing discipline for off-field incidents, the Saints could be in play to give Derek Carr another weapon.
Will Any of These Teams Really Draft Robinson?
Many of the other teams in this range make little sense.
The Chiefs (+2800) were burned before by a first-round pick in Clyde Edwards-Helaire as they have won two Super Bowls by leaning on Damien Williams and Isiah Pacheco. Patrick Mahomes does not need a first-round back with him.
The Titans (+2000) still have Derrick Henry, the Vikings (+4000) still have Dalvin Cook, and the Giants (+3300) still have Saquon Barkley. Why bother there?
Meanwhile, the Lions (+1500) still have D’Andre Swift while adding David Montgomery from Chicago; the Ravens (+2000) have more running backs than they know what to do with, and the run-heavy Bears (+1600) have more pressing needs at No. 9. Plus, Khalil Herbert looked very good last year for them.
Arizona’s Pick is Still Uncertain
The Broncos (+3300) added Samaje Perine and will get Javonte Williams back. The Cardinals (+2500) are certainly not spending the No. 3 pick on Robinson, but trading down and taking him later is at least feasible. But there is a lot of uncertainty with that Arizona pick.
The Dolphins (+4000) had some bad luck with health last year, but we will give Mike McDaniel the benefit of the doubt that he can get his running game going with healthier versions of Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, two San Francisco transplants.
The Rams (+4500) really seemed to unlock Cam Akers again late in the season, so there may be some optimism there again. Besides, the team does not pick until No. 36, so Robinson should already be gone before that.
The Longshots (+5000 to +10000 Odds)
Finally, let’s look at why the 10 longshots of +5000 odds or higher are not worthwhile betting picks for taking Robinson.
- San Francisco 49ers (+5000): Already made the big move for Christian McCaffrey last year and they are not scheduled to pick until No. 99 in the third round.
- New York Jets (+7500): Breece Hall may have won Offensive Rookie of the Year if he did not tear his ACL last season.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+7500): Travis Etienne showed he could handle the load last year as a former first-round pick himself. This would be overkill.
- Green Bay Packers (+7500): They could use more help at receiver and tight end while the duo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon still in town.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (+7500): Not a chance, as the Steelers are all in on Najee Harris, their 2021 first-round pick.
- Carolina Panthers (+10000): No way did they move up to No. 1 to take a running back, and Robinson should be long gone before they are set to pick again at No. 39.
- Seattle Seahawks (+10000): Kenneth Walker III already looked like a legitimate workhorse last season.
- Cleveland Browns (+10000): Nick Chubb is the man.
- Las Vegas Raiders (+10000): Anything goes with a team coached by Josh McDaniels, but the Raiders have the reigning leading rusher in Josh Jacobs.
- Indianapolis Colts (+10000): Jonathan Taylor should bounce back strong from an injury-riddled 2022 season.
It would be really hard to see any of these teams pull the trigger over the other 22.
Conclusion: Your Best Pick and Hedging Options
With odds ranging from +450 to +10000, this is a market you should not be afraid to make a few different picks for. The best options in my view would be:
- Dallas (+500)
- Philadelphia (+750)
- Cincinnati (+900)
- Buffalo (+1800)
All four have strong offenses where they are settled at quarterback and No. 1 wide receiver, and they already made the playoffs for at least the last two years. They can add Robinson to enhance their offense rather than carry it like he’s Nick Chubb or Derrick Henry.
All four teams also said goodbye to a key part of the backfield in Ezekiel Elliott, Miles Sanders, Samaje Perine, and Devin Singletary, so there is a need there.
The Eagles Could Really Use the Upgrade
However, the Eagles are best suited to benefit from Robinson’s talent as a receiver and probable three-down back. Miles Sanders had 20 catches for 78 yards last year. This would be an upgrade for the team that likes to run more than most anyway.
Also, the Eagles have the best draft capital among these probable suitors with the No. 10 and No. 30 picks. They can trade up or down in the first round to take Robinson anywhere between No. 10 and No. 30.
While the Eagles did not win the Super Bowl, we talked a lot about how well put together the roster was last year. Much of that team is still intact. Robinson may not make sense for most teams in the NFL, but we can definitely sell it as the right pick for Philly.
Let’s go with the Eagles as your best NFL pick to draft Bijan Robinson in the 2023 NFL draft.
NFL Pick: Philadelphia Eagles to Draft Bijan Robinson (+750) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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