The 150th Kentucky Derby is here, and whether you are a casual bettor or a seasoned horse racing enthusiast, you must know that a vital element sets the stage for betting on this event at the top-rated sportsbooks: the post-position draw.
Since the order in which horses start at the gate has a direct impact on the morning-line odds, we decided to examine some data compiled by the Churchill Downs organization since 1930, when the starting gate was first introduced for this race.
How to Watch the 2024 Kentucky Derby
- When: Saturday, May 4, 2024
- Broadcast Start: 02:30 PM ET
- Post Time: 06:45 PM ET
- Where: Churchill Downs
- How to Watch: NBC/Peacock
2024 Kentucky Derby Field Info
2024 Kentucky Derby Post Position Trends
For example, the favorite, Fierceness (5-2), might have seen shorter odds if it had not drawn the 17th position, the only one that has never produced a winner. The best result for any horse starting from this position was Forty Niner in 1998, who finished second.
Also, it’s worth noting that after Encino was scratched from the race last Tuesday, Epic Ride took his place but will start from the outside post, #20. The remaining horses outside Encino’s original position will move up a spot.
Another factor to consider if you’re betting on Dornotch is the rail. Despite 8 winners starting from Post 1, it’s now considered a disadvantage because “it’s harder for horses in this position to work out a clean trip while breaking from inside the 20-horse field,” as explained by the organization.
2024 Kentucky Derby Post Position Data
Taking this into account, out of the last 13 winners, eight of them (62%) started from post 13 or wider.
This is significant since the field expanded to 20 horses in 1975, which means that some inside positions might have a more padded historical record. Also, not every Derby has featured a full field.
Remember that “In-the-money” (ITM) means that a horse finished first, second or third.
2024 Kentucky Derby Info
- Race: 12
- Post Time: 6:45 PM ET
- Race Status: Grade 1
- Distance: Race 1 1/4 miles
- Conditions: Dirt
- Purse: $5,000,000
- Track: Left-handed
2024 Kentucky Derby Horse Records
Now, you might be wondering how this information could be useful given that every Kentucky Derby field is entirely different. Well, that's why we also compiled the records for each of the contestants participating in this year's edition.
Among this year's competitors, several horses stand out. Sierra Leone (3-1), the second favorite, boasts an impressive record of 3 wins and 1 place in four starts. Forever Young (10-1), making the trip from Japan, has won all five of its starts.
Stronghold (20-1) and Epic Ride (50-1) also have impressive records, having finished in the money in all their starts.
Also, remember that if it rains, horses like Mystik Dan could have an advantage, so be sure to check the weather forecast!
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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