Editor’s note: According to pro-capper Drew Dinsick, via Twitter, who is on-site, the track was rated as muddy around 10:00 AM ET but looked close to an upgrade if no more rain. As per Accu Weather, the temperature at post time should be about 82 degrees with a 7% chance of precipitation, as of 3:45 PM ET.
There’s a reason why the Kentucky Derby is the longest-running sporting event in the US. Rain or shine, you know it will take place, and we don’t expect anything different on Saturday, May 4th, 2024, for the 150th edition. However, from a betting perspective at the top-rated sportsbooks, the weather could play a crucial part.
How to Watch the 2024 Kentucky Derby
- When: Saturday, May 4, 2024
- Broadcast Start: 02:30 PM ET
- Post Time: 06:45 PM ET
- Where: Churchill Downs
- How to Watch: NBC/Peacock
What Is the Weather Like for the 2024 Kentucky Derby?
The most important question to answer is: Will it rain?
As of Thursday, May 2nd, 2024, it’s unclear if there will be any precipitation during the race. According to AccuWeather, there is a 40% chance of rain, mainly during the morning, with a forecast of warmer weather as we move into the later part of the afternoon. Remember that the actual race is scheduled for 6:45 PM ET.
However, it’s important to note that on Friday, there is a 95% chance of precipitation with “a couple of thunderstorms; heavy downpours” after 2:00 PM, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). Could this benefit mudders like Mystik Dan, who is currently sitting at 25-1 odds?
If the track happens to be sloppy on Saturday, it’s worth considering a longshot on him. Remember that MD placed 3rd in the 2024 Arkansas Derby after winning the Southwest Stakes on a sloppy track. Also, if you’re looking to partake in the Kentucky Oaks, you might want to consider this information and watch for how the track conditions will be officially classified.
- Dry: Normal conditions.
- Muddy: Wet rack without standing water.
- Sloppy: Saturated with visible standing water.
The last time the track at Churchill Downs was classified as muddy or sloppy for the Kentucky Derby was in 2019 when Country House came in second after Maximum Security but was awarded the victory after Maximum Security was disqualified for interference, as reported by USA Today.
2024 Kentucky Derby Info
- Race: 12
- Post Time: 6:45 PM ET
- Race Status: Grade 1
- Distance: Race 1 1/4 miles
- Conditions: Dirt
- Purse: $5,000,000
- Track: Left-handed
2024 Kentucky Derby Field Info
Kentucky Derby Weather History
Now, has rain been an issue in previous Kentucky Derby editions?
Now, has rain been an issue in previous Kentucky Derby editions? The NWS has shared some fun facts regarding the weather history for the Kentucky Derby, and wouldn’t you know, out of the 149 prior derbies, a total of 71 have experienced rain at some point during the day. That’s 48% of the editions. The wettest Kentucky Derby took place in 2018 when a total of 3.15 inches of precipitation came down on the city of Louisville.
So, as you can see, rain is no stranger to the event; however, its impact will depend more on the amount of precipitation before and during the race, as well as the actual conditions at race time. And remember, whoever the winner ends up being, this is just the start of the Triple Crown events. Stay tuned for the Preakness and Belmont stakes.
Calculators
