Top NCAAB Pick: San Diego State -6.5 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
March Madness continues with another full NCAAB Basketball Tournament First Round slate on Friday. As usual, we are here with our three best bets on the card that we feel hold betting value at the current NCAAB odds.
These are value-based bets generated by our proprietary model, regardless of whether the teams involved hail from major, mid-major or minor conferences. We have two Friday best bets from the East Region and one South Region matchup. Also, all three matchups are in the early afternoon, so do not get shut out at top-rated online sportsbooks!
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UAB Blazers vs. San Diego State Aztecs
Friday, March 22, 2024 – 01:45 PM ET at Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena
We start in the East Region, where 5th-seeded San Diego State takes on 12th-seeded UAB. While UAB fared well in their first season in the AAC this year, we simply feel the Blazers will have too much trouble scoring here and are betting on a double-digit Aztecs victory.
Elite Defense
San Diego State reached the Championship Game of the NCAAB Tournament last year. They followed that up by going 22-9 this year before losing to New Mexico in the Mountain West Championship Game. And let us not forget the Mountain was very good this season sending six teams to the Big Dance, and the conference got off to a great start with Colorado State trouncing Virginia Tuesday.
Just like last year, the Aztecs continue to win with an elite defense, as they are eighth in the entire country in defensive efficiency. They rank 33rd in eFG% allowed and do not often get burned from beyond the arc, ranking 20th in 3-point defense allowing a mere 30.6%.
Granted San Diego State is not a great shooting team, but they make up for it by crashing the boards with an offensive rebounding rate of 32.7% (national average 29%). The Aztecs should dominate in second opportunities here with UAB being a poor defensive rebounding team.
Poor Defensive Rebounding
The Blazers finished at 20-11 overall and 12-6 inside the American before winning the AAC Tournament. They did luck out a bit there though by drawing a Temple team that pulled off four straight upsets to reach the championship after finishing the season 5-13 in AAC play.
More importantly, this just looks like a terrible matchup for UAB. This is a slightly below-average shooting team with an eFG% of 50.2% (national average 50.5%) that does not figure to approach even that modest level against the stiff Aztecs’ defense.
Furthermore, the Blazers are 201st in defensive efficiency and 276th in defensive rebounding percentage, so they will have great difficulty keeping the Aztecs off the offensive glass.
The Pick
So, the great San Diego State defense should be able to stifle the UAB offense easily, and with the Aztecs expected to dominate in second chances, bank on an easy cover.
Predicted Score: San Diego State 79 – UAB 64
NCAAB Pick: San Diego State -6.5 (-115) at Bovada
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Marquette Golden Eagles
Friday, March 22, 2024 – 02:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Next, we move to the South Region, where frankly we feel that Marquette is the weakest 2-seed in this tournament. Thus, we are taking the big points with 15th-seeded Western Kentucky out of a Conference USA that dominated the post-season last year.
Weak Rebounding on Both Ends
The Golden Eagles finished 23-8 during the season and tied for second in the Big East at 14-6 before getting blown out by Connecticut in the conference Championship Game. However, this was a down year for a Big East that sent just three teams to the Big Dance. We personally have several 3-seeds and even a 4-seed (Auburn) power rated ahead of the seemingly over-seeded Eagles.
Marquette is certainly good offensively, ranking 22nd in both efficiency and eFG%. However, their 20th ranking in defensive efficiency looks fraudulent. We have to consider they are 131st in eFG% allowed. They are also ranking well outside the Top 100 in both 3-point defense (156th) and 2-point defense (122nd).
Furthermore, the Eagles are a poor rebounding team on both ends, ranking 278th in offensive rebounding percentage and 269th defensively.
Better Defense
The Hilltoppers lost their last four regular-season games to finish at 19-11 and 8-8 inside Conference USA. However, they regrouped to win the C-USA Tournament and are now the only representative from that conference to make this NCAAB Tournament despite the conference’s post-season success last year.
Western Kentucky is not as talented offensively as Marquette, although they are above average in eFG% at 51,9%. However, the Toppers are in the Top 100 defensively in eFG% allowed, 3-point defense and 2-point defense. That may not sound like much, but remember Marquette is outside the Top 100 in all three.
The Hilltoppers are also the better rebounding team, especially defensively with an 80th ranking in defensive rebounding percentage.
The Pick
In the end, we feel Marquette will ultimately do enough offensively to win this game. Still, we also expect Western Kentucky to limit second chances. That should make enough stops to hang within single digits.
Predicted Score: Marquette 85 – Western Kentucky 77
NCAAB Pick: Western Kentucky +14.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Stetson Hatters vs. Connecticut Huskies
Friday, March 22, 2024 – 02:45 PM ET at Barclays Center
We head back to the East Region for our final play on Friday. While there is little doubt that top-seeded Connecticut will win this game, we do expect Stetson to do enough in a slow-paced game to cover this enormous spread.
Slow Pace
It is not surprising that the defending National Champions from Connecticut are the overall #1 seed in this tournament after finishing #1 in the AP Poll and currently ranking #1 on Kenpom. The Huskies finished 28-3 before steamrolling through the Big East Tournament.
However, UConn prefers to play slow, ranking 329th in the country in Tempo Rating and 295th in average possession length. This is one game where they will get their wish. Stetson is also methodical, so the limited expected possessions inherently make it difficult to cover large spreads like this.
An added variable here is the consensus that the East is the most loaded of the four Regions. Thus, the Huskies should pull their starters early with a big lead and conserve energy for the tougher battles ahead.
Good 3-Point Shooting
Stetson finished 19-12 overall and tied for second in the Atlantic Sun Conference before winning the conference tournament. But admittedly, nobody expects the Hatters to make many stops against Connecticut with a defense ranked 342nd in the land in efficiency.
However, there are several factors that we think can keep this final margin around “only” 20 points or so. For starters, there is the aforementioned slow pace, with Stetson ranking 287th in average possession length. Next, the Hatters actually shoot well beyond the 3-point arc. They rank 38th in the country at 36.5%, led by leading scorer Jalen Blackmon and his 37.1% 3-PT FG% on 251 attempts!
The Pick
Connecticut could likely send the bench in early since this is the only “easy” game in their tough bracket, so consider taking the abundant points with Stetson.
Predicted Score: Connecticut 84 – Stetson 64
NCAAB Pick: Stetson +26.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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