Top NCAAB Pick: Duke -6.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
After a chalky second round of the NCAA Basketball Tournament, it was indeed March Madness in the Sweet 16 with upsets ruling the day. Now, the Elite 8 concludes on Sunday and we are here with our three best bets for the two games that we feel hold betting value at the NCAAB odds.
These are value-based bets that rely on our proprietary model, regardless of whether the teams involved hail from major, mid-major or minor conferences. Our three best bets for you to cash in at top-rated sportsbooks on Sunday matchups are comprised of one favorite, one underdog and one total.
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Sunday, March 31, 2024 – 02:20 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena
We begin in the Midwest Region, where despite some upsets along the way, we did end up with a matchup of the top two seeds. And we see a tight battle here from start to finish, so we are taking the points with second-seeded Tennessee against top-seeded Purdue.
Great Offense vs. Great Defense
Purdue is currently ranked third overall on Kenpom after three straight double-digit wins in this NCAA Tournament. That includes an impressive 80-68 win over 13th-ranked Gonzaga on Friday. The Boilermakers are third in the country in offensive efficiency and 10th in eFG%, thanks to leading the nation in 3-point shooting at a blazing 41.0%.
However, this is one game where they should face some resistance. Tennessee is third in the nation in defensive efficiency and fifth in eFG% allowed. Thus, the Boilers may need to continue their blistering 3-point pace to get separation in this game, especially with the Volunteers also eighth in 2-point defense, allowing a mere 44.0%.
No Turnovers
The underdogs from Tennessee are ranked sixth overall on Kenpom themselves, fueled by that excellent defense. So the question becomes whether or not they can score enough points here offensively to keep pace against a Purdue defense ranked 17th in efficiency and 39th in eFG%.
Well, the Volunteers are 28th in offensive efficiency and they should be able to control the tempo of this game as needed. That is because the Vols do not turn the ball over much, ranking 37th in turnover percentage, and Purdue does not apply pressure, ranking 342nd in turnover percentage forced.
The Pick
So, while Purdue is probably the better overall team, Tennessee has the defense to at least slow the Boilermakers down. And with the Volunteers basically able to run their offense without facing much pressure, we are taking the points in this spot.
Predicted Score: Purdue 75 – Tennessee 74
NCAAB Pick: Tennessee +3.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Duke Blue Devils
Sunday, March 31, 2024 – 05:05 PM ET at American Airlines Center
We now move on to the South Region where we have an unlikely all-ACC matchup. After beating top-seeded Houston in a slugfest on Friday, we are looking for the 4-seeds from Duke to have a much easier time with the 11th-seeded Cinderellas from NC State.
Now They Can Breathe
The Blue Devils are now up to fifth overall on Kenpom after escaping a defensive battle with the 54-51 win on Friday. Now, some may be concerned about coming back on short rest from a physical battle. But thankfully for Duke, they go from facing probably the best defense in the land to facing a Wolfpack defense ranked 141st in eFG% allowed, 156th in 3-point defense and 142nd in 2-point defense.
That should allow the Blue Devils to relax and go back to what they do best: shoot the basketball. Duke is seventh in the country in offensive efficiency and 19th in effective field goal percentage, and they should return to their normal scoring output against this lesser defense.
We also do not expect a replay of the 14 turnovers against the great Houston defense. The Blue Devils usually protect the ball well, ranking 34th nationally in turnover percentage.
Midnight for Cinderella?
NC State has reached the Elite Eight despite being an 11-seed. They own that suspect defense and still rank only 49th on Kenpom. Granted, they drew good matchups in the first two rounds, especially when favored in their second-round game against 131st-ranked Oakland. So, the only major shock so far was the upset of second-seeded Marquette on Friday.
The most surprising part of that 67-58 triumph was the 58 points allowed against a Golden Eagles team ranked 22nd in both offensive efficiency and eFG%. Well, did the Wolfpack defense that has struggled on the perimeter for most of the year suddenly improve, or did Marquette simply “choke” by shooting 4-for-31 beyond the 3-point arc?
The Eagles did make 55.2% of their 2-point shots. So, the final result would have been much different with normal 3-point shooting.
The Pick
We are looking for the Duke offense to return to normal Sunday after surviving Houston, as well as negative regression from the NC State defense. Thus, we think Midnight has struck for Cinderella, as we are betting on a double-digit Blue Devils victory.
Predicted Score: Duke 81 – NC State 70
NCAAB Pick: Duke -6.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Deflated Total
We continue with the same game. It seems to us that the results from Friday are deflating this total, as we foresee a final output of around 150 points.
When you combine the normalization of the Duke offense not facing a defense like Houston, and the NC State defense not being nearly as good as it looked Friday, we see Duke scoring around 80 points here.
And while we do not expect the Wolfpack to keep pace on the scoreboard, we do expect them to score enough points to clear the Over. The Pack are a good 43rd in offensive efficiency and they are also good at ball protection, in fact ranking better than Duke at 13th in turnover percentage.
The Pick
While we foresee a safe Duke win, any slight fatigue for the Blue Devils may show on the defensive end. Thus, NC State should score enough to cash the Over.
NCAAB Pick: Over 143 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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