2024 NBA Christmas Games Best Bets: It’s a Cloudy Christmas in Phoenix
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Rainman M.
- December 24, 2024
Top NBA Pick: Nuggets -2.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their odds for the NBA’s traditional Christmas Day slate. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: 76ers vs. Celtics and Nuggets vs. Suns.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the 76ers-Celtics “under” and the Nuggets. And If you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more betting advice.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics
Wednesday, December 25, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET at TD Garden
The Return of Joel Embiid
Star center Joel Embiid is back for Philadelphia. He only played limited minutes in his last game because he was ejected after incurring a double technical foul.
Embiid is an annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate because of his elite rim protection, which, I contend, is the biggest reason why he will have a strong impact on this game. While he is also a great scorer, Boston’s rim protection has become monumentally better with the return of its own starting center, Kristaps Porzingis.
Philadelphia’s Perimeter Defense
Embiid’s return gives a significant boost to the quality of Philadelphia’s perimeter defense. This might seem confusing because he is a rim protector, but you have to understand that defenders are connected with each other.
Embiid’s ability to protect the rim enables his teammates to guard the perimeter more aggressively because they know they incur a lower risk in doing so with him behind them. They know that, if an opposing ball-handler drives by them because of their aggressiveness, then Embiid will be there to deter that ball-handler from scoring inside the arc.
However, I also like the 76ers because, apart from Embiid’s presence, they clearly devote particular care to protecting the perimeter. They rank ninth at limiting opposing three-point attempts and fourth at limiting the frequency of opposing wide-open three-point attempts.
These statistics indicate that Philly excels both at running teams off the three-point line and at contesting opposing three-point attempts. Because it is difficult to procure favorable three-point shooting opportunities against the 76ers, they rank eighth at limiting three-pointers made.
Why This Matters
Philadelphia’s emphasis on perimeter defense is particularly useful in this matchup.
Boston, by a drastic margin, ranks number one in three-pointers attempted per game. The Celtics average 6.4 more threes per game than any other team. They will be uncomfortable on offense because their preferred method of scoring will lead them into decisive difficulties.
Boston’s Defense Will Be Strong
On defense, the Celtics are well-built to limit the 76ers’ offense. Statistics show that the return of their top rim protector Porzingis is having a tremendous influence on their ability as a team to prevent points scored around the basket.
Boston is allowing fewer field goals made within five feet of the basket than it was before. It now ranks tenth at limiting field goal percentage in this space.
When Philadelphia struggles to score at the basket, it must also be expected to score in general because it is awful from deep. The 76ers are the fourth-worst three-point shooting team based on three-point percentage.
To state all of this differently, Philadelphia’s key scorers are slated to struggle. Porzingis can limit Embiid’s inside scoring while Boston’s Jrue Holiday, a six-time All-Defensive Team selection, can limit Philly’s leading scorer Tyrese Maxey.
Takeaway
Boston will struggle to score in the way that it prefers because it will encounter the 76ers’ tough perimeter defense. But the Celtics will also limit the players that Philadelphia’s offense depends on the most.
NBA Pick: 76ers/Celtics Under 222 (-110) at BetOnline
Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns
Wednesday, December 25, 2024 – 10:30 PM ET at Footprint Center
Phoenix’s Preferred Emphasis on Offense
Last year, the Suns ranked 25th in three-point attempts. They have altered their shot profile this year. On the season, they are attempting 6.4 more threes per game. But the Suns were, until most recently, attempting more three-pointers per game. In their last three games, however, they are attempting even fewer three-pointers than they did last year.
What changed was their available personnel. When fully healthy, they would prefer to shoot more threes. But star guard Devin Booker is dealing with a groin injury that he sustained on December 19 and that has caused him to miss each of his team’s last three games. His scoring and distribution are sorely missed — he is Phoenix’s second-leading scorer and has the second-most assists on the team.
Fellow high-volume three-point shooter Grayson Allen is also banged-up. He is recovering from a concussion that he sustained on December 21 and that has caused him to miss his team’s last game.
Phoenix’s Ongoing Struggles
Phoenix’s last game is telling. The Suns did not shoot many threes and therefore failed to take sufficient advantage of Denver’s perimeter defense, which is one of the NBA’s worst — Denver ranks 25th at limiting opposing made three-pointers.
This last game, which the Suns lost 117-90, concluded with their third straight loss.
They are struggling because they currently lack productive scorers and because their defense is not proving to be good enough to make up for that lack. In their last three games, they allowed:
- 120 points to Indiana.
- 133 points to Detroit.
- 117 points to Denver.
It Comes Down to Booker’s Health
If Booker does play, then I would recommend the “over” because his scoring talent and, specifically for this matchup, his high-volume three-point shooting will enable Phoenix to make up for its defensive struggles.
If Booker does not play, then Denver will prolong Phoenix’s losing streak. The Suns have not stayed within seven points in any of their last three losses.
NBA Pick: Nuggets -2.5 (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
