2024 NFL Christmas Games Best Bets: Houston’s Defense Takes Center Stage
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Rainman M.
- December 23, 2024
Top NFL Pick: Ravens/Texans Under 47 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NFL odds for Week 17. There are two games on Wednesday, so let’s celebrate Christmas with a profitable day.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Chiefs, Texans, and Ravens-Texans “under.”
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Wednesday, December 25, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Acrisure Stadium
Kansas City’s Dangerous Offense
With DeAndre Hopkins now a Chief, finally healthy Hollywood Brown collecting in-game reps with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and speedster Xavier Worthy developing, Kansas City now has a very dangerous wide receiver group. Of course, it also features long-time tight end Travis Kelce.
This group is primarily responsible for the 27-point output that Kansas City’s offense most recently achieved against Houston with its sixth-ranked pass defense.
Pittsburgh’s Defense Is Overmatched
Pittsburgh has, most recently, failed to contain dangerous offenses. Two weeks ago, the Steelers gave up 27 points to Philadelphia, with Jalen Hurts having a super-efficient game with 290 passing yards. Most recently, they conceded 34 points to the Ravens.
They have suffered from blown assignments and communication issues, things that are tough to fix especially in a short week.
The Steelers have shown that they are deeply vulnerable to weapon-laden offenses. Kansas City has the sport’s best quarterback in Mahomes and plenty of high-quality pass-catchers with which to support him.
Missing George Pickens
Pittsburgh has scored a combined total of 30 points in its past two games, with its inability to exceed 17 points being particularly alarming given the struggles that the secondary of Baltimore, its last opponent, has experienced this year.
The Steelers really miss wide receiver George Pickens, who missed both of those games. He is a physically very talented wide receiver who gives quarterback Russell Wilson much-needed support. But he is dealing with an ongoing hamstring injury, which is tough for him because hamstring injuries are notoriously pesky.
Pickens’ status bears monitoring — he is currently listed as ‘questionable’ for this game — but the fact that he was unable to play on Saturday against rival Baltimore creates pessimism for his capacity to play in this game on Wednesday. And even if he does play, he would likely be less than 100%. Moreover, he would have to contend with Kansas City’s All-Pro selection at cornerback, Trent McDuffie, who this year has helped hold Cincinnati’s elite wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase to 35 receiving yards and four receptions.
Takeaway
Kansas City will, like Pittsburgh’s last two opponents, blow past 20 points with its bevy of weapons in its pass attack. The Steelers will fail to reach 20 points with Pickens failing to make an impact on this game.
NFL Pick: Chiefs -2.5 (-115) at BetOnline
Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans
Wednesday, December 25, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at NRG Stadium
The Spot
Houston is in a fantastic betting spot. The Texans will seek revenge after being ousted by Baltimore in last year’s postseason.
Baltimore will fail to bring the same hunger. The Ravens are coming off a revenge win over their archrival Pittsburgh and are thus slated for an emotional let-down. With this game taking place on Wednesday, they have even less time than usual to turn their attention to their upcoming opponent.
Houston’s Defense Will Shine
Houston’s sixth-ranked pass defense will be the biggest reason why the Texans upset Baltimore. The Texans are great at limiting the efficiency and productivity of opposing quarterbacks.
They are a well-tested group that has succeeded especially at home where, for example, they held MVP candidate Josh Allen of Buffalo to nine completions and 131 passing yards and where they intercepted Detroit quarterback Jared Goff five times.
Their success against Allen reflects their ability to limit quarterbacks who, like Baltimore’s, can make plays on the run.
Baltimore’s Pass Defense Will Struggle
The Ravens’ struggles in their secondary cause their pass defense to rank 31st. While they’ve done well in recent weeks, they’ve benefitted from facing backup quarterbacks and wide receiver-deficient offenses.
Houston’s Nico Collins, who is nearing 1,000 receiving yards, will have a big game in this matchup against a soft test. With Baltimore’s defensive coordinator from last year now in Seattle, its defense does not have sufficient brain power, and good offensive coordinators, like Houston’s Bobby Slowik, are able to take advantage.
The Total
While the Texans will win with their quarterback and Nico Collins combining against Baltimore’s bottom-feeder pass defense, Houston’s offense does miss Tank Dell at wide receiver and has numerous injuries along its offensive line.
While the spot for the Texans is golden, they aren’t going to get revenge and win by scoring a lot of points. Instead, their highly-ranked pass defense will shine, especially at home where it is so well-tested.
NFL Pick: Texans +4 (-108) at BetOnline
NFL Pick: Ravens/Texans Under 47 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
