2024 NFL Thanksgiving Games Best Bets: The Packers Will Run to Victory

Will Detroit Reach 30 Points?

For the “over” to hit, it would be immensely helpful if the favored team, Detroit, can exceed 30 points. Since their offense’s bumpy start to the season ended with the Lions’ 42-29 win over Seattle, they have exceeded 30 points in six of eight games.

While it’s already a fairly convincing point to say that they’ve scored more than 30 points in six of their last eight games, let’s explore why they failed to exceed 30 points in two of their games, in order to discern whether they will exceed 30 points on Thursday.

In one of those two games, they scored 24 points in Green Bay.

The key problem with their offense in this game was quarterback Jared Goff‘s performance: Goff managed all of 145 passing yards.

Might Goff Struggle to Be Productive?

If you take a look at his indoors/outdoors splits, you’ll observe that his statistics, over a large data sample of games, plummet when he plays outdoors. Green Bay’s venue, therefore, posed a significant challenge to him.

One problem for Goff is that his hands are uniquely small. They measure at nine inches. This makes it hard for him to grip the football in outdoors conditions. His grip problems inhibit his ability to produce the same velocity and accuracy in his throws that typify his passes in indoor venues.

There is a reason why he played for the Rams before Detroit wanted him. Dome teams want Goff because he will give them great performances in their home games.

Detroit hosts the Bears on Thursday, so Goff won’t be troubled by outdoor conditions.

In the second game in which Detroit failed to exceed 30 points, the Lions had no trouble amassing yards, but they failed to convert on a 4th-and-short deep in Indianapolis’ territory, leaving them with no points after they wasted a lot of time driving downfield. Indianapolis’ inept offense, led as it is by a quarterback who can barely complete passes, also failed to push them.

Outlook for Chicago’s Run Defense

Detroit’s ground game is regularly solid because it boasts strong run-blocking and two excellent running backs. The Lions rank easily in the upper half in run-block win rate.

Explosive running back Jahmyr Gibbs and the more physical David Montgomery have holes to work through. Given all of this quality, the Lions rank fourth in rushing yards per game and eighth in YPC.

Chicago’s run defense has turned out adequate performances at home, but one reason why the Bears remain winless on the road is that their run defense loses stoutness. On the road, they have faced two rush attacks that rank similarly to Detroit’s. Those two teams, Washington and Arizona, averaged over five and over six YPC, respectively, against Chicago’s defense.

There is nothing stopping Detroit’s elite rush attack from performing at a similarly high level of quality.

Jared Goff’s Outlook

At home, in the dome, Goff boasts a ridiculous 115.1 passer rating. His passer rating at home is even deflated by his aforementioned slow start to the season.

Since then, he has achieved a 129.9 passer rating against Tennessee’s defense and a 140 passer rating against Minnesota’s defense, even though both of those opponents, led as they are by well-reputed defensive minds, rank toward the top at limiting opposing passing yards or at limiting opposing passer rating.

Chicago is not as good as either of those teams at limiting opposing passing yards or opposing passer rating. It lacks good cornerbacks outside of Jaylon Johnson.

Hence, against the Bears, Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold was most recently able to amass over 300 passing yards and two touchdowns even without relying on his top target.

As such, Chicago’s pass defense will pose a softer test for an offense that can lean on strong pass protection, the elite play of Amon-Ra St. Brown at wide receiver, and a host of other targets at running back, tight end, and wide receiver who repeatedly prove capable of producing great numbers in a given game.

Caleb Williams Will Help The Total “Over”

Since Chicago fired Shane Waldron and replaced him with a new offensive coordinator and play-caller, quarterback Caleb Williams has been fantastic.

Williams drastically improved his passer rating, relative to his season average, in his first game with the new offensive coordinator and play-caller against Green Bay. Most recently, he amassed 340 passing yards and achieved a 103.1 passer rating against Minnesota’s pass defense.

Williams has been dangerous not only as a passer but also as a runner. He has accumulated a combined total of 103 rushing yards on 15 carries in his last two games.

His mobility will be a weapon against a Detroit defense that has struggled to limit the rushing efficiency of opposing mobile quarterbacks, with Arizona’s Kyler Murray and Indianapolis’ Anthony Richardson providing two examples.

The Lions’ top pass rusher remains injured and their defensive coordinator has anyhow had trouble dealing with mobile quarterbacks.

Detroit’s Injury Problems

To make matters worse for Detroit, its cornerback room is banged up. Terrion Arnold was inactive on Sunday with a groin injury. Carlton Davis, its top cornerback, sustained a knee injury that prevented him from returning to the field on Sunday.

Emmanuel Moseley was activated from IR but has not seen action since early October of last year.

Without its elite pass rusher, Detroit will allow a hot Caleb Williams to continue thriving in his new offense, an offense that has smartly invested a lot in its wide receiver group.

Takeaway

Given Chicago’s new offense and Detroit’s injury-related problems on defense, problems that affect its best players, the spread seems way off.

This is going to be a closer game than the odds imply, albeit one in which both teams put up a lot of points.

Detroit will score their usual 30+ points, and the Bears will keep pace. I am seeing a 31-27 Lions win here.

If you want to get greedy, you could add a Lions money line and Lions-Bears “over” parlay. This wouldn’t be such a bad idea with the spread being as large as it is because the Bears can easily cover the spread and still lose.

However, as someone needing the Lions to win, Detroit’s pass defense and Caleb Williams’ form in his new offense would make me too concerned.

NFL Pick: Bears +10.5 (-111) at BetOnline

NFL Pick: Over 49 (-105) at BetOnline

Over 49 (-105)

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Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers

Thursday, November 28, 2024 – 08:20 PM ET at Lambeau Field