Top sportsbooks have released their odds for Tuesday’s slate of Olympics competition.
Three games from the men’s basketball quarterfinals interest me and are worth investing in: Greece vs. Germany, Australia vs. Serbia, and USA vs. Brazil.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Germans, Australians, and Brazilians.
Greece vs. Germany
Tuesday, August 06, 2024 – 05:00 AM ET at Bercy Arena
Germany’s Group Stage Performance
Germany’s performance in group play is important to observe because it reflects the Germans’ current form.
The Germans won all three of their games in the group stage. They beat the Japanese, Brazilians, and the French.
Their victory over the French represents their most impressive performance.
France is a well-reputed team, one that has given Team USA trouble in recent history.
But the Germans had no trouble with the French, covering the spread against them with ease. Germany won 85-71.
Germany’s Depth
This is perhaps the best team that Germany has ever fielded.
The key here is Germany’s depth. The Germans have a lot of good players and a lot of NBA talent.
Inside, Daniel Theis protects the rim. The Wagner brothers, Franz and Moritz, are effective scorers.
Dennis Schroder is a great guard on both offense and defense.
These are all NBA players: Theis plays for the New Orleans Pelicans, Franz and Moritz Wagner both for the Orlando Magic, and Dennis Schroder for the Brooklyn Nets.
All of those teams, besides the Nets, even made the playoffs last year in the NBA.
Greece Has Giannis And…Giannis
Greece is going to fail to compete with Germany in this game because of its lack of depth.
After Giannis, the Greeks really lack talent. Giannis also can’t do everything by himself. He can’t, for example, help Greece improve its efficiency behind the arc.
On offense, Giannis will always pose a threat inside, and he’ll be dangerous as a defender around the basket.
However, the Germans are relatively solid in the interior, as we saw when they used their interior strength in their famous victory over the Americans last year in 2023.
This is not a German team that Greece can use its Giannis-powered strength inside to exploit.
A bunch of NBA players, such as Germany possesses, will know how to contain Greece’s NBA superstar.
Greece will need other players to step up to help Giannis out, but it just doesn’t have that NBA talent elsewhere.
Expect, in sum, Germany to cover with its superior depth.
Basketball Best Bet: Germany -8.5 (-103) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Australia vs. Serbia
Tuesday, August 06, 2024 – 08:30 AM ET at Bercy Arena
Rematch
This is a rematch of a game that was played on July 16. In that game, Australia won by eleven points.
It was a recent game, so Nikola Jokic did play for the Serbs. Both teams missed some shooting talent.
Both teams also showcased their depth – or, in Serbia’s case relative to Australia’s, their lack thereof – by giving bench players extended minutes.
Australia won that game fair and square, and yet we get the Australians as a significant underdog in this game.
The Serbs are attracting bettors’ money because of some more recent competition that took place, but let’s avoid recency bias by attaching exaggerated levels of significance to more recent games, and let’s appreciate what this July 16 matchup showed about both teams.
Australia’s Depth and Tempo
When studying the outcome of the July 16 exhibition game between these teams, people will point to Serbia’s poor shooting as an excuse.
It is true that the Serbs shot poorly from deep. But it’s a stretch, to say the least, to use their poor three-point shooting as an outright excuse for their loss. After all, they didn’t lose by one or two points. They lost by eleven.
Also, it’s imperative to recognize that Australia does things to make it hard for opposing teams to shoot well from deep.
With superior depth – evident in the number of NBA players on their roster – and tempo, the Australians will wear down opponents, taking their legs out.
Australia’s Superior Shooting
My main angle for this game is that the Australians will, once again, shoot better.
The Australians have several good NBA shooters, such as veteran Patty Mills and Josh Green.
They will outdo the Serbs with the Serbs’ lack of good guard play.
Serbia will of course want to rely on Jokic, but Jock Landale is an excellent defender, as evident in his defensive rating in the NBA, who has caused Jokic to struggle in the NBA playoffs.
Landale’s rim protection will keep Jokic from taking the game over.
At the end of the day, Australia has too many good weapons for Serbia to handle.
Basketball Best Bet: Australia +6.5 (-110) at BetOnline
USA vs. Brazil
Tuesday, August 06, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Bercy Arena
Fade The Americans
Team USA has a problem. Its problem is not with winning games straight-up, which is all it cares about.
But, from a bettors’ perspective, it has a problem with energy and motivation.
The Americans just don’t care to cover the spread against weak teams.
They’ll take well-reputed teams like Serbia and Canada seriously, so they’ll beat those teams soundly.
However, they’ve nearly lost to South Sudan and Germany in consecutive exhibition games.
They failed to cover the spread against South Sudan in the rematch.
In their last game, against Puerto Rico, the Americans actually lost the first quarter. While of course, they found enough energy to win, they failed to sniff the full-game spread.
Brazil is another low-profile team that the Americans won’t take seriously. We’re getting a big spread here and a team, in Team USA, that lacks the motivation to cover it.
Basketball Best Bet: Brazil +27 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
