Top sportsbooks have released their odds for Saturday’s slate of Olympics competition.
Three games, across two different sports, interest me as worth investing in: Serbia vs. Germany and France vs. USA in basketball, and the marathon.
In order to bet on the marathon at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), you’ll want to look under “Athletics.” However, you can also just google “marathon” and the name of a sportsbook that you want to bet at – you can also bet on the marathon at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review), for example. If you google “marathon Bovada,” you’ll be taken directly to the relevant page.
For your best bets, I will recommend betting on the Germans and Americans in basketball. I will also recommend splitting a unit on two different marathon runners, Victor Kiplangat and Sisay Lemma.
Serbia vs. Germany (Basketball)
Saturday, August 10, 2024 – 05:00 AM ET at Bercy Arena
The Odds
When I first surveyed the odds at BetOnline, this game was listed at PK. But a few hours later, Serbia became the favorite by multiple points.
It is easy to see why the odds shifted: after watching Serbia come close to upsetting Team USA, people became interested in betting on Serbia to beat a German team that just lost to France.
The current odds reflect the dangerous phenomenon called recency bias, whereby people attach exaggerated significance to the most recent events. It is silly to be impressed by Serbia’s most recent performance.
Yes, the Serbs almost won, but this group is no different from the one that nearly lost to Australia. It is no different from the one that was blown out by Team USA in their prior two meetings.
Serbia did not suddenly become a different team. Instead, variance came into play. The Serbs were fortunate to convert 15 three-point attempts. They were also fortunate to catch the Americans on an off day.
Team USA was plagued by silly turnovers, terrible team defense, and unusually poor performances – at least until the fourth quarter – from important contributors like Anthony Edwards and Kevin Durant.
Recency bias is dangerous because it compels us to treat the most recent events with uncritical importance. Consideration of how Thursday’s game played out allows us to see that Serbia does not deserve greater respect.
Greater Depth
The main reason why Germany is worth investing in is its superior depth.
Serbia has Bogdan Bogdanovic and Nikola Jokic as its two nameworthy NBA players. But Jokic is too easy to stop when Serbia isn’t shooting well from deep.
The key, as Team USA showed, is to send a double team to Jokic when he starts to make his move toward the basket and isn’t able to see the double.
Jokic will want to pass out of double teams to teammates behind the arc, but one must expect Serbia’s three-point shooting to fall back to Earth after it overperformed against the Americans.
On the other side, Germany has Dennis Schroder, the Wagner brothers, and Daniel Theis. All four are NBA players.
With the Germans, we are getting the stronger roster as the underdog.
Bonus Consideration
Psychology could be important, too, because the Serbs might feel gutted after blowing their late lead to the Americans. Bogdan Bogdanovic was crying after the loss. This was a unique opportunity for them. They were so close to pulling off an incredible upset.
It will be hard for Serbia to regain concentration – in a game that might also feel less important to them after they just competed with the vaunted Americans in the semifinal – and bounce back from such an emotional outcome.
Basketball Best Bet: Germany +2.5 (-110) at BetOnline
USA vs. France (Basketball)
Saturday, August 10, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Bercy Arena
France’s Style
As most clearly evident in its last game but also evident mostly throughout the tournament, France does not win games by achieving high point totals.
The French want to muck a game up and create a low-scoring affair. They want a slog instead of a track meet.
Their proclivity for lower-scoring fairs is fairly natural for a team that relies heavily on inside scoring. Post-ups take longer to develop into scoring opportunities than other types of plays.
Victor Wembanyama is their key, their best scoring option. The young, rising NBA star wants to rely on his ability to score inside.
Team USA’s Interior Defense
Wembanyama struggled against Germany’s strong interior. He converted four of his seventeen field goal attempts.
If Wembanyama is intimidated by the likes of Moritz Wagner, then how will he handle the likes of Anthony Davis and Joel Embiid?
Davis and the physical monster Embiid are annual Defensive Player of the Year candidates. They ably protect the rim for Team USA. Their stoutness in the interior will make life hard for France’s best scoring option.
Scoring Potential
Unlike France, Team USA ably scores over 100 points because of its superior guard play.
Whereas the French will rely on largely non-NBA players, the Americans have guys like in-form Steph Curry with his elite three-point shooting, and other stars with multiple All-Star selections like Devin Booker and Anthony Edwards.
Guys like Booker and Edwards are instrumental in America’s endeavor to establish its tempo. They can penetrate the paint at will but also at least setup teammates like Curry to shoot well from deep.
Takeaway
One team, the French, will struggle to score, and the other team, Team USA, will score en masse with its superior talent.
The Americans are coming off a scare. Expect them to be more focused and more motivated. They have just one more game to play – and no game to look ahead to – in order to achieve their goal of a gold medal.
Basketball Best Bet: USA -16.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Marathon
Saturday, August 10, 2024 – 02:00 AM ET in France
Key Factor
The key factor for betting on the marathon is that the course is uniquely hilly and elevated.
It is impossible to bet on the favorite, Benson Kipruto, because, in favoring him, oddsmakers fail to distinguish between different types of courses.
The type of course matters because different types of courses – especially hilly or less hilly courses – will favor or disadvantage different runners. Folks are impressed by Kipruto’s recent effort in the Tokyo Marathon.
While he set a course record, which sounds impressive, Tokyo’s course is quite flat. People are therefore being impressed by something that is rather irrelevant to Sunday’s competition because of the elevation of the latter course.
My Two Choices
There is betting value in the runners who excel at running up hills.
These are the runners who are not considered the best marathon runners overall but who have a unique opportunity to win on Sunday’s hilly course.
One of my two favorite options to bet on is Victor Kiplangat. In 2017, as a mere teenager, he won the World Mountain Running Championships. Later, he has also used the hillier parts of courses to separate himself from competitors.
My other favorite betting option is Sisay Lemma. Lemma in 2024 won the Boston Marathon, whose course is hilly.
Even apart from his unique ability to run up hills, Lemma is totally underrated in view of the fact that he’s one of four men to run a marathon in under two hours and two minutes. This accomplishment makes him more deserving of respect from oddsmakers.
For your betting, I recommend splitting a unit on these two runners with the expectation that one of them will win and net you a profit.
Marathon Best Bets: Victor Kiplangat +250 at BetOnline & Sisay Lemma +1000 at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
