As the 2024 Olympics excitement reaches its peak, top sportsbooks have released their odds for this Saturday’s action, showcasing thrilling matchups across various sports.
Among the numerous events, three games, from two different sports, interest me: Spain vs. Australia in basketball, Iraq vs. Argentina in soccer, and Greece vs. Canada in basketball.
For your best bets, my top recommendations are backing Australia to prevail against Spain in basketball, taking the over in the Iraq-Argentina soccer match, and betting on Canada to triumph over Greece in basketball.
Basketball
Spain vs. Australia
Saturday, July 27, 2024 – 05:00 AM ET at Pierre Mauroy Stadium
Not Your Usual Spain
This is not the Spain that had talented guys like the Gasol brothers and that utilized their NBA talent to challenge the United States.
Instead, this is a Spain team that is missing NBA talent. NBA viewers might recognize one of their players, Santi Aldama, who occasionally started for the awful Memphis Grizzlies. Only two of Spain’s players have a spot on an NBA roster.
With this lack of talent, the Spaniards barely qualified for the Olympics. They had to, for example, survive a scare against a Finland team missing its best player in order to do so.
Australia’s NBA Talent
Unlike Spain, Australia has nine NBA players. This is a much more talented group.
With good perimeter defenders like Josh Green of the Charlotte Hornets, Australia can stymy Spain’s reliance on three-pointers.
The Australians have also added interior talent in the form of guys like Jock Landale, making them stronger inside than previously.
With shooters like Minnesota’s Joe Ingles, Australia will overwhelm Spain’s much less proven defensive unit.
Basketball Best Bet: Australia -5.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Soccer
Iraq vs. Argentina
Saturday, July 27, 2024 – 09:00 AM ET at Groupama Stadium
Urgent Reminder
You have to remember that, for men’s soccer, the U23 teams are playing. So, this isn’t the senior men’s Argentina squad that just won Copa America.
Instead, this is a younger and much more vulnerable Argentinian group. I offer this reminder because it seems to be a very popular thought that, after losing its opening match, Argentina will bounce back powerfully in its upcoming contest against Iraq.
It is very true that, in order to survive in its group, Argentina really needs to win this match.
However, as evident in all sports, just because a team needs a result does not mean that it will obtain that result.
In fact, often the opposite happens: pressure and desperation can make a team play worse than it would have under normal circumstances.
This is part of my point – the situation for Argentina is not necessarily a strong one. In order to develop my point, I want to talk about Argentina’s major weakness.
Argentina’s Defense
Argentina has shown repeatedly, match after match, that its defense is porous. It’s liable to give up multiple goals in a given game.
This point about the quality of Argentina’s defense is worth emphasizing given the situation.
Desperate to win, Argentina will likely play more aggressively. By playing more aggressively, the already vulnerable Argentinian defense is going to be even more vulnerable in the back.
Let’s look at these recent results to show you what I mean: in its last match, the Argentinians gave up two goals to Morocco.
Two games ago, the Argentinians shut out Brazil, but this was an exception.
Three matches ago, they gave up three goals to Paraguay after conceding two goals to Venezuela after conceding three goals to Uruguay.
Iraq Will Take Advantage
As evident in its opening match, when it scored two goals against Ukraine, Iraq has the talent to take advantage of Argentina’s anyhow weak defense.
Look out, among others, for Aymen Hussein, who is one of Iraq’s historically most prolific goal scorers. He already has netted one goal so far.
Argentina Can Score, Too
For all of its weaknesses, these are concentrated primarily on the defensive side. Argentina does have talent, and it will be extra focused on scoring goals on Saturday given its dire situation.
The Argentinians have scored at least one goal in each of their last five matches.
They nearly scored two goals in their last match, their opener against Morocco, but had their late equalizer disallowed by VAR in what was an insane sequence of events.
If they had scored that second goal, then they would have scored multiple goals for the fourth time in five matches.
Takeaway
Expect a high-scoring match where aggressive Argentina makes use of its scoring talent but is uniquely vulnerable in the back against Iraq’s effective attack.
Soccer Best Bet: Over 2.5, 3 (-121) at BetOnline
Basketball
Greece vs. Canada
Saturday, July 27, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at Pierre Mauroy Stadium
Giannis Can’t Do It All
It seems like a lot of people are hyping up Greece’s chances in the Olympics. All of the people who like Greece to do well mention Giannis.
However, Giannis Antetokounmpo is just one player. Basketball is a team sport, and it is too easy for a team to neutralize a single player.
This is evident in Greece’s most recent exhibition game against Serbia.
Serbia won by 22 points partly because it devoted extra defensive attention to Giannis.
Ideally, a team would take advantage of such a high level of concentrated defensive attention by spreading the ball around. But Greece simply lacks talent outside of Giannis.
Without guys like Kostas Sloukas, Greece has insufficient shooting ability, making it too reliant on Giannis and his inside scoring ability.
Canada’s Abilities
For all of Canada’s lack of size – a point crudely and commonly made by Greece backers – statistics show that the Canadians have been surprisingly competitive on the glass.
Size is an overrated aspect of basketball, and Canada’s rebounding ability is evidence of this.
This being said, the main point is that Canada has too much good guard play for Greece to handle.
The Greeks have Giannis but lack perimeter talent, while Canada has high-caliber NBA talent in the form of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Jamal Murray of the Denver Nuggets.
Canada has too much scoring talent for a team that is too easy to guard.
Basketball Best Bet: Canada -8 (-102) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
