Paris Olympics Best Bet: China (+1000) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
As the 2024 Paris Olympics draw near, anticipation is building for what promises to be a spectacular global celebration of sport and unity. Set to kick off on July 26, the Games will bring together athletes from around the world, each striving for greatness.
In addition to the thrilling competitions, we can also appreciate the various betting options offered by top sportsbooks, adding an extra layer of excitement to this already monumental event.
Among other things, and in various ways, you can bet on how the different countries will perform. I am interested in betting on which country will win the most overall medals for this article.
To be crystal clear, I am not talking about which country will win the most gold medals. That is a separate wager that I discussed last week. I am talking about most overall medals, which means that gold, silver, and bronze all count.
For detailed insights into the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics and expert tips on the best bets for various events, be sure to visit our Olympics betting page.
Paris Summer Olympics 2024
Friday, July 26, 2024 – Sunday, August 11, 2024 at France
The Odds
The odds for the “most overall medals” wager are skewed tremendously in the USA’s favor.
Because the odds are like this, we have to talk about betting philosophy. If we don’t, then you might make a terrible mistake with your bets.
When I’ve finished explaining betting principles and the Olympics, it will be clear why you should split your conventional unit on China and France.
According to BetOnline, the United States is favored at -2000 to win the most overall medals.
China is the second favorite to win, with odds set at +1000. Great Britain and Japan share the third spot, both listed at +5000, while the host nation, France, is ranked fifth with odds of +10000.
You Can’t Bet on the United States
Unless you have a millionaire’s bankroll, the United States is favored too strongly to be bet on.
Just consider the numbers: if you wager $100 on the USA to win the most medals, you would win all of $5 if the bet hit.
The point is that when you risk a good amount of money on this wager, the potential payout is negligible.
The risk is not worth it for such a small reward. You would have to risk a ton more money in order to get a decent payout.
It would be a terrible mistake to take this risk because, if the bet were to lose, then your bankroll would suffer a tremendous blow that would be very difficult to recover from.
Anybody who recommends you to bet in the United States does not care about your money. You can find bets that you are just as confident in at radically better odds, so you should invest in those wagers, instead.
I personally do not like to go above -150. So -2000 is certainly out of the question.
How To Approach the Bet
Because we cannot bet on the United States, there are still bets we should place instead.
This is true even if we think that the USA will win the most medals. To explain, the odds for other countries are really attractive.
Because of the odds, we can make a lot of money by investing little money in other countries.
The risk is small while the potential payout is excellent. To be clear, I am not just suggesting that we fling money at countries whose odds are attractive,
In order for this avenue to make sense, we need to consider whether, given the odds, it is sufficiently plausible that the United States will not win the most medals and likewise whether, given the odds, it is sufficiently plausible that other countries will win the most medals.
Swimming and Athletics Are Key
When we’re talking about “most overall medals,” we need to be interested in the sports where a lot of medals are available.
For the United States to win the most overall medals, swimming and track are of particular importance.
Athletics – also known as track and field – has 48 medal events while swimming has 35. Between these two sports, there are a total of 83 medals in play.
Why I Don’t Like the USA in Swimming
I don’t like the Americans in swimming because other countries are surging.
Australia is a newcomer in this sport. China will also be dangerous. Both Australia and China are going to be serious contenders for the Americans.
Australia is sending over 44 swimmers to Paris, among whom are Ariarne Titmus, Kaylee McKeown, and Emma McKeon. These swimmers have won gold across multiple events.
China will send over 31 swimmers, including several who have already proven themselves in international competition.
Without the likes of Michael Phelps, the Americans are too dependent on Katie Ledecky.
There are simply a lot of good foreign swimmers, including Canadian Summer McIntosh, who has beaten Ledecky.
Athletics
Americans will struggle to win medals in athletics, as the Jamaicans will have great sprinters while the Africans have great distance runners.
If you look at the 2023 World Track and Field Championships, you’ll see proof of this.
The amount of good competition that Americans will have to face in track and field ensures that this country is not worth investing in to win the most overall medals.
Why France and China
Over a number of years, China has invested a lot in its athletes. It has the power to do so in ways that the Americans cannot because China has a centralized political system.
The Chinese have become a greater Olympic force as a result of this investment, as evident in their increased ability to win more medals and more gold medals specifically.
They nearly beat the Americans in gold medal count in the Tokyo Olympics, which is crucial to note because their ability to win gold medals gives them a cushion for our “most overall medals ” wager. It is easier to trust a country to win more overall medals when it can win gold in so many events because silver and bronze also count toward the overall medal total. So, even if the Chinese underperform, our investment in China will still be in good shape.
I also like France because it is the host country. French athletes have competitive advantages unique to them and are therefore worth investing in.
Because the odds for China and France are so attractive, I recommend investing just a half unit in each country. The payout would be awesome for such a minor risk.
Best Bet: China (+1000) at BetOnline
Best Bet: France (+10000) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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