Editor’s note: Muth was scratched on Wednesday morning, due to fever. The field will consist of only 8 horses.
After last week’s thrilling Kentucky Derby and the confirmation that winner Mystik Dan will run in the Preakness Stakes, horse racing fans eagerly await Saturday, May 18th, for the chance to witness MD attempt a historic victory in the second leg of the Triple Crown.
By the way, top-rated sportsbooks are offering odds as high as +1600, depending on where you shop, in case you believe Mystik Dan could pull off the feat. With a chance to witness history, the fact that oddsmakers have made MD the second favorite and a slight possibility of rain, let’s sprinkle some pizza money on that prop as well.
However, our focus here is to analyze post position data, so let’s break down the numbers.
Fun Prop Bet: Mystik Dan to Win the 2024 Triple Crown – Yes (+1600) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
2024 Preakness Stakes Info
- Race: 13
- Post Time: 6:45 PM ET
- Race Status: Grade 1
- Distance: 1-3/16 miles
- Conditions: Dirt
- Purse: $2,000,000
- Track: Left-handed
Post Position Data
Post positions were determined on Monday evening, and morning-line odds from Maryland Jockey Club linemaker Brian Nadeau were quickly announced, with Muth installed as the favorite at odds of 8-5. Mystik Dan follows with odds of 3-1, while Catching Freedom (4th place in the Kentucky Derby) is the third favorite at 4-1. In total, nine horses will vie for victory at Pimlico this Saturday.
The Preakness Stakes is limited to 14 horses, and we haven’t seen a full field since 2011. That’s why post positions tend to matter slightly less when handicapping the Run for the Black-Eyed Susans.
Below, you’ll find the historical data for each post position since 1909 when the starting gate was introduced to this race.
Betting Takeaways
As mentioned earlier and in our previous Kentucky Derby guide, bettors should take this information with a grain of salt, considering the changes over the last couple of decades. For example, besides the introduction of the starting gate in 1909, it’s important to remember that many older races featured as few as two horses.
Between 1873 and 1900, the race took place with four horses or fewer a total of 13 times. During that span, the Preakness Stakes featured only four horses on seven different occasions.
- 1877
- 1885
- 1887
- 1888
- 1890
- 1896
- 1898
On three occasions, only three horses took the track (1878, 1882 and 1899) while the shortest fields took place in 1883, 1884 and 1889, when only two horses competed. Things did pick up a bit in the next 25 years, however, it was not uncommon to have fields of 5 or 6 horses, even after the addition of the starting gate.
The historical data is somewhat skewed. That's why the win percentage for each position is also added. It is important to consider, especially when the winningest post position in the history of the Preakness Stakes also boasts the highest win percentage — that would be Post 6.
A total of 17 horses who have started from here have won the race. Out of the 113 horses that have run from this post, they represent 15% of all-time winners.
Does this mean that Seize the Grey, with odds of 20-1, is a good bet?
Keep In Mind
While the value is there with double-digit odds, Seize the Grey might have a difficult time, given that Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan drew Post #5 and the favorite in the morning-line odds, Muth (8-5), is further down at #4.
Looking back at the historical data, the fifth position has seen 13 winners for a victory percentage of 11.4%, while Post 4 has featured 14 eventual winners with a percentage of 12.1%. Interestingly, three out of the last five winners started in Post 4, 5, or 6, with the other two winners taking off from Post 1, including last year’s winner, National Treasure.
Another thing to keep in mind is that Just Steel will start at Post #7 in what will be a rematch of the Arkansas Derby against Mystik Dan and Muth. Back in March, Muth defeated Just Steel and Mystik Dan, who finished second and third, respectively.
What About Bob Baffert?
Speaking of Muth, it's worth noting that his trainer, Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, has a second horse in this race, and you could argue that he drew the worst post position. With a win rate of only 5.1%, the figure is lower than the mathematical expectation of wins for that position with the reduced field size accounted for.
While many might think that Imagination might serve as a lead blocker for Muth, his running style is that of a front-runner. According to Matthew DeSantis, handicapper for the New York Racing Association (NYRA), Imagination has only one way to win this race — to go to the front. He has never passed a horse in his career. The plan is full send from the far outside.
With the field set and morning-line odds posted, all we can do is wait for Saturday to enjoy the second leg of the Triple Crown.
Regarding our Triple Crown winner prop mentioned at the start, I wouldn’t go over 0.5 units, but 0.25 units might just do the trick!If somehow he does manage to win on Saturday, worst case scenario we’ll get a chance to hedge our Triple Crown prop bet during next month’s Belmont Stakes.
Fun Prop Bet: Mystik Dan to Win the 2024 Triple Crown - Yes (+1600) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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