After experiencing a beautiful sunny day at the Kentucky Derby last week, it looks like the weather for the Preakness Stakes will be “cold and wet,” according to the latest forecast from the National Weather Service (NWS) and local meteorological reports from Thursday morning.
Why does this matter from a betting perspective? Well, just like post position can play in favor of a horse’s running style – as we saw in the Run for the Roses – a sloppy track could benefit or affect the eight-horse field come Saturday evening.
Hence, you can expect that top-rated sportsbooks will adjust their fixed odds if more precipitation than expected comes down between now and post time.
Let’s take a look at the weather forecast and how it could impact this year’s Preakness Stakes.
How to Watch the 2024 Preakness Stakes
- When: Saturday, May 18, 2024
- Broadcast Start: 02:30 PM ET
- Post Time: 06:45 PM ET
- Where: Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore
- How to Watch: NBC/Peacock
Rainy Day
The good news is that as of the morning of Thursday, May 16th, the weather forecast from AccuWeather indicates a 65% probability of precipitation for Saturday afternoon. The bad news is that there is an 80% probability of rain throughout the morning, with showers expected to extend all day and into the night.
The rain from the last couple of days, paired with that forecast, sets up a worst-case scenario of a sloppy track and a best-case scenario of a wet fast track.
2024 PREAKNESS STAKES INFO
- Race: 13
- Post Time: 6:45 PM ET
- Race Status: Grade 1
- Distance: 1-3/16 miles
- Conditions: Dirt
- Purse: $2,000,000
- Track: Left-handed
Mystik Dan Doing the Rain Dance?
So, who benefits the most?
As we pointed out in our Kentucky Derby weather report, a sloppy track will benefit a mudder like Mystik Dan. As my colleague Doug Upstone noted in his betting guide, MD’s public perception after winning the Southwest Stakes on an off-track had many overlooking his improving speed ratings.
However, then is then and now we have a Mystik Dan on short rest, so the question remains: will the energy be there? Remember that the muddier/sloppier the track, the more energy it demands from the horses.
This perception was somewhat amplified given the perceived hesitation of trainer Kenny McPeek to run Mystik Dan at Pimlico. Recent reports indicate that this had more to do with deciding between MD and Thorpedo Anna, who won the Kentucky Oaks, rather than a lack of trust in MD.
When it comes to off-tracks, past success tends to be the best predictor.
Track Conditions
- Dry: Normal conditions.
- Muddy: Wet rack without standing water.
- Sloppy: Saturated with visible standing water.
Don’t Give Me Chalk!
While MD is not an odds-on favorite based on fixed odds - at least not yet, Muth's withdrawal and a shot at the second jewel of the Triple Crown will likely have the public, deservingly so, rooting for MD.
That’s why we give a shoutout to the crew at Blood Horse, a specialized outlet in horse racing, for digging up the Beyer Speed Figures on wet tracks for Saturday’s field.
MD’s advantage is undeniable, but it seems Just Steel, Catching Freedom, and Uncle Heavy have an edge in that sense. While JS could very well win the whole thing, he could also have an awful performance similar to the Kentucky Derby. CF is one of the shorter favorites and has the best BSF on a wet track out of all three.
However, the short rest could play against both horses. That’s why I’d advise considering Uncle Heavy over those two. Don’t think UH can win, but hey, maybe an exacta with MD?Bet accordingly and start getting ready for the Belmont Stakes with our betting guide!
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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