2024 WNBA Championship Odds: Is There Value With Caitlin Clark-led Fever and Lynx?
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Rainman M.
- August 29, 2024
WNBA Best Bet: Minnesota Lynx (+800) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Caitlin Clark is immediately proving to be a high-impact player. But does that mean her Indiana Fever has a chance of winning the WNBA Championship?
Looking at potential future picks, I will argue that there is no value with the Fever. Instead, Minnesota is the team that you’ll want to invest in at the top sportsbooks.
2024 WNBA Championship Winner
| Team | Odds | Bovada |
|---|---|---|
| New York Liberty | -230 | |
| Minnesota Lynx | +170 |
Caitlin Clark’s Impact
Caitlin Clark deserves the hype that she started receiving as a college player for Iowa before she ever stepped on a WNBA court.
In college and now in the WNBA, she is deservedly well-known for her prolific three-point shooting. Currently, her three-point conversion rate on the season is 35.2 percent.
She is capable of having big performances and using her three-point shooting prowess to take over a game by herself.
For example, her seven three-pointers on June 7 in Washington were essential to her Fever’s two-point victory.
She’s Still Just A Rookie
But let’s keep in mind that basketball is more than just making threes. As a rookie, it is already clear that she has great talent and great potential. But she is also still just a rookie.
There are still significant problems with her game, which she will need to grow out of.
Perhaps the most glaring one is her proneness to committing turnovers.
Clark has committed as many as ten turnovers in a single game. She repeatedly commits seven or eight turnovers. On the season, she commits 5.6 per game.
Indiana’s Defense
Clark’s three-point shooting prowess is so far from making Indiana a valuable investment for your WNBA Future. Despite her efficiency, she is not being allowed to make a greater impact on her team.
Social media has been going crazy with her team’s latest game against the Sky in which Clark’s coach let her disappear toward the end, opting not to run plays for her in order to get the ball in her hands.
Besides her general lack of impact, she is part of a terrible defense. Indiana ranks last in the WNBA in defensive rating.
It is a known adage that “defense wins championships,” and Indiana’s defense is the major reason why it is not worth investing in.
It is thus for good reason that oddsmakers clearly don’t think much of the Fever.
Key Trend
When choosing a WNBA champion, you’ll want to keep in mind the following trend: the last three Commissioner’s Cup title games have included a team that became the top playoff seed – Connecticut in 2021 – or a team that became the WNBA champion – Las Vegas in 2022 and 2023.
Last year’s WNBA Finals was actually a rematch of the Commissioner’s Cup finals.
This history indicates that the Commissioner’s Cup has great predictive value in terms of choosing a WNBA champion.
New York will face Minnesota in this year’s Commissioner’s Cup, so we should focus on these two teams when deciding on which team to invest in. I will argue that Minnesota is the team you should invest in.
Minnesota’s Offense
One significant thing that makes Minnesota’s offense lethal is its three-point shooting. The Lynx have the WNBA’s most efficient three-point shooting.
They will use their frontcourt players – especially Napheesa Collier and Alanna Smith – to stretch the floor, which creates more spacing for their teammates to take advantage of. The screen-setting abilities of those front-court players also help get their players going.
Moreover, Minnesota’s strong three-point shooting shows the strength of its passing. The Lynx have selfless players who pass the ball crisply and quickly to each other.
Minnesota’s Defense
As measured by defensive rating, the Lynx also boast the WNBA’s best defense.
Their defense is a well-rounded unit, starting with its rim protectors, who make it difficult for opposing players to be efficient around the basket.
Minnesota’s rim protectors excel in drop coverage where they are well-positioned on ball-screens to protect the basket.
They force the opposing team to attempt more mid-range shots, which are statistically harder to convert than shots from other spaces.
But the whole team is difficult to score on also because of its guard play.
Lynx guards will pick up ball-handlers early, making it difficult for the opposing offense to get into its actions and find a rhythm.
Ball pressure is a significant component of Minnesota’s lock-down defense.
With championship-quality defense complementing its potent offense, Minnesota is the team to invest in. The price is also really attractive.
WNBA Best Bet: Minnesota Lynx (+800) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
