2025 Kentucky Derby Gate Positions: Journalism the Favorite, Will He Make It?
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Doug Upstone
- April 29, 2025
Top Pick: 2025 Kentucky Derby – Journalism To Finish First 3-1 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
This past Saturday, the gate positions were drawn for the next Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. Favored Journalism received an excellent draw in the #8 slot on the 20-horse field, and his 3-1 odds on the morning line appear accurate.
Let’s take a look at the field and determine who is worthy of betting on at the top-rated sportsbooks and who might be fade material.
1. Citizen Bull / 20-1 odds
Trainer Bob Baffert / Jockey Martin Garcia
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner last fall and the 2-year-old champion was a distant 4th in the Santa Anita Derby. Maybe he was sluggish after a layoff. However, drawing the rail is dreadful for this race because the last winner from that position was 38 years ago.
Beyer Speed Ratings: 87-98-96
(Note: In the last 10 Derbys, the typical winner was 101-103)
2. Neoequos / 30-1 odds
Trainer Saffie Joseph / Jockey Flavien Prat
Finished third at the Florida Derby. Prefers to run from the front but hasn’t shown he can hang with the best, especially with more distance.
Beyer Speed Ratings: 89-91-82
3. Final Gambit / 30-1 odds
Trainer Brad Cox/ Jockey Luan Machado
The upset winner at the Ruby Steaks by 3 1/2 lengths shows what Final Gambit is capable of in coming from last to first. Most experts believe Cox’s horse is better suited for turf and probably needs to run towards the front to avoid the flying dirt this track kicks up.
Beyer Speed Ratings: 90-63-65
4. Rodriguez / 12-1 odds
Trainer Bob Baffert / Jockey Mike Smith
Plenty to like after impressive Wood Memorial running from the front to win by 3 ½ lengths. The concern for horse bettors is that Rodriguez is one of several who like to be up front, and will he have enough to finish?
Beyer Speed Ratings: 101-90-91
5. American Promise / 30-1 odds
Trainer D. Wayne Lukas / Jockey Nik Juarez
Dominated a lower-class field at the Virginia Derby to run away by 7 ¾ lengths. Improving speed ratings is a great positive. The concern is stepping up in class to run with horses, having shown more consistent speed at distance.
Beyer Speed Ratings: 95-88-82
6. Admire Daytona / 30-1 odds
Trainer Yukihiro Kato / Jockey Christophe Lemaire
U.A.E. Derby winner earned an invite. Arriving from overseas is always a tough trip for these horses along with getting used to track conditions and far more overall speed.
Beyer Speed Ratings: NA
7. Luxor Cafe / 15-1 odds
Trainer Noriyuki Hori / Jockey Joao Moreira
Has won four times in Japan and was just beaten by Admire Daytona at U.A.E. Derby. Likes to hang with the pack and find a lane to outside to run free. Not easy to do in a field with this many horses, but if given the right trip, can climb up with the leaders.
Beyer Speed Ratings: NA
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8. Journalism / 3-1 odds
Trainer Michael McCarthy/ Jockey Umberto Rispoli
More than enough speed when pushed to win the Santa Anita Derby. Journalism does not have any apparent weaknesses and is 4-for-4 in starts. Given the right trip, there is no reason to think he doesn’t hit the finish line first.
Beyer Speed Ratings: 102-108-87
9. Burnham Square / 12-1 odds
Trainer Ian Wilkes/ Jockey Brian Hernandez
Burnham Square has consistent speed, and speed ratings show continual improvement after winning the Blue Grass Stakes by a nose. Having Hernandez aboard is a positive, as he was the winning jockey with 18-1 shot Mystik Dan last year.
Beyer Speed Ratings: 96-91-90
10 – Grande / 20-1 odds
Trainer Todd Pletcher / Jockey John Velazquez
Certainly has the right trainer and jockey combination to be in the thick of the race. Came in 2nd at the Wood, having to veer wide to make a late run. Like previous winners here (Big Brown, Justify, and Mage) is making his fourth career start. Horse racing aficionados appear mixed on Grande.
Beyer Speed Ratings: 97-97-83
11. Flying Mohawk / 30-1 odds
Trainer Whit Beckman/ Jockey Joe Ramos
A second-place finish at the Ruby Steaks put him in the field. Has never run on dirt and is known for a preference to turf-synthetic surfaces, and lacks elite speed. It would be a major upset for Flying Mohawk in the top two spots.
Beyer Speed Ratings: 84-82-79
12. East Avenue / 20-1 odds
Trainer Brendan Walsh / Jockey Manny Franco
Set the pace at the Blue Grass and was beaten by a nose. East Avenue’s form is on the rise, and for a real shot at the win, probably should be just behind the leaders and come charging to the front in the early back stretch, and attempting to make it hold up.
Beyer Speed Ratings: 96-74-75
13. Publisher / 20-1 odds
Trainer Steve Asmussen/ Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.
An intriguing choice after 2nd at the Arkansas Derby. If the pace is hotter than expected, Publisher can run down a group of tired horses. Not a closer type, more of a grinder who can take advantage of too much pace early. Like East Avenue, showing maturity and more strength.
Beyer Speed Ratings: 95-86-81
14. Tiztastic / 20-1 odds
Trainer Steve Asmussen / Jockey Joel Rosario
Had the right trip to win the Louisiana Derby. A definite late runner who can scoot to an open lane and fire. It doesn’t appear the added distance will matter, Tiztastic just needs a simmering pace to pounce late.
Beyer Speed Ratings: 95-81-89
15 . Render Judgment / 30-1 odds
Trainer Kenny McPeek / Jockey Julien Leparoux
Owners worked the point system to become eligible. A pedestrian 5th at the Blue Grass and as you can see, lacking elite speed, makes this horse a non-factor.
Beyer Speed Ratings: 90-83-79
16. Coal Battle /30-1 odds
Trainer Lonnie Briley / Jockey Juan Vargas
Of the longest shots, experts give Coal Battle the best chance to battle and compete. Some felt operator error caused CB to finish 3rd at the Arkansas Derby. When discussed, words like “versatile” and “hard worker” are brought up. Still needs to improve to run the top runners.
Beyer Speed Ratings: 88-91-84
17. Sandman / 6-1 odds
Trainer Mark Casse / Jockey Jose Ortiz
Just one of three horses with single-digit odds coming into the race. Has hit the track eight times, yet is still viewed as – green – lacking in maturity. Talent is not the issue, as seen in winning the Arkansas Derby by 2 ½ lengths. If Sandman is focused, he can win; if not, finishes in the bottom 10.
Beyer Speed Ratings: 99-89-92
18. Sovereignty / 5-1 odds
Trainer Bill Mott / Jockey Junior Alvarado
Provided a sharp second-place effort at the Florida Derby. There remain questions about enough speed, but reports have workouts that are top shelf and could be ready for a big effort if he can reach the first turn in the Top 10.
Beyer Speed Ratings: 92-95-87
19. Chunk of Gold / 30-1 odds
Trainer Ethan West / Jockey Jareth Loveberry
The main selling point is a versatile runner and can adapt to the pace. Was a solid second at the Louisiana Derby, though lightly-raced.
Beyer Speed Ratings: 92-92-75
20. Owen Almighty / 30-1 odds
Trainer Bryan Lynch / Jockey Javier Castellano
More than a few are wondering why this horse is racing, having not shown much in finishes against better competition.
Beyer Speed Ratings: 90-93-83
21. Baeza (Also-eligible) / 12-1 odds
Trainer John Shirreffs / Jockey Flavien Prat
Currently not in the field, but will be listed if some horse drops out. Baeza ran a strong second to favored Journalism at Santa Anita, but didn’t have enough work in bigger races to qualify. If Baeza had made the field with a post position of 5 to 13, he would have single-digit odds. Smart horse players are hoping he gets in to use on exotics.
Beyer Speed Ratings: 101-93-87
Early Derby Betting Thoughts
Potential Winners
The first group has to include:
- Journalism
- Sovereignty
- Luxor Cafe
- Coal Battle
Next Tier
These are possible win bets or those that fit in a trifecta or other exotic bets:
- Burnham Square
- Rodriguez
- Sandman
- Publisher
- Baeza (if he makes the field)
Current 2025 Kentucky Derby Picks
- Journalism
- Sovereignty
- Luxor Cafe (if Baeza makes field, place 3rd)
- Publisher
Make sure to stay on top of the action this week for the latest information.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
