2025 March Madness Second Round Parlay: Houston Is Too Tough and Physical
-
Rainman M.
- March 21, 2025
The Parlay
- Purdue ML (-240)
- St. John’s ML (-300)
- Houston ML (-215)
NCAAB Pick: Three-Legged Parlay (+177) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for the long-awaited Second Round of the NCAA Tournament, and today we’re taking a look at a very promising parlay featuring McNeese vs. Purdue, Arkansas vs. St. John’s and Gonzaga vs. Houston.
McNeese Cowboys vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Saturday, March 22, 2025 – 12:10 PM EDT at Amica Mutual Pavilion
Trey Kaufman-Renn and Company
To win this game, McNeese will want to stop Purdue power forward/center Trey Kaufman-Renn. As evident in Purdue’s games against Michigan most recently, Indiana, and Texas A&M, the Boilermakers are likely to lose if Kaufman-Renn struggles.
Those teams are not like McNeese: Michigan with its two starting seven-footers and Indiana have a lot of height; Texas A&M packs the paint and has very strong high-caliber shot-blockers.
McNeese is small, its biggest player being 6-9 215-pounder Joe Charles. It doesn’t have the physically tough interior defense needed to limit Purdue’s front court threat.
Kaufman-Renn is very tough to stop because he excels in ball-screen actions, utilizes stop-and-go and various other intricate moves on the way to the basket, and can also simply rely on his strength and momentum. With his physical advantage down low, he’ll be able to make use of his strength especially.
If McNeese double-teams him, then shooters will be open behind the arc. Purdue, ranking eleventh in three-point percentage, has plenty of good shooters.
On the other side, McNeese has yet to crack 70 points in four tries against NCAA Tournament- or NIT-level competition. It doesn’t have the scoring talent to keep pace with Purdue.
Seeds
I am not impressed by McNeese: the Cowboys are here because Clemson was unbelievably dysfunctional with turnovers and bad shooting, waiting until the very last minutes to become competitive.
Purdue does have a history of losing to double-digit seeds, but this history stopped becoming a thing when it suffered the ultimate embarrassment two years ago by losing to a 16 seed.
Since then, the Boilermakers have dominated lower seeds, beating both double-digit seeds they’ve faced with double digits. They beat an 8 seed last year by 39 points.
They have too much experience to choke against a lower seed.
NCAAB Pick: Purdue ML (-240) at BetOnline
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. St. John’s Red Storm
Saturday, March 22, 2025 – 02:40 PM EDT at Amica Mutual Pavilion
Arkansas’ Offense
As we saw in the first half against Kansas, Arkansas wants to run. They like to run in the sense that they prefer an up-tempo game and that they want to drive to the basket. One way to stop this sort of offense is to take it out of rhythm. The Razorbacks struggle against teams that force a lot of turnovers, with their loss to Texas A&M where they scored 61 points providing one example.
Their point guard DJ Wagner, the guy who is primarily responsible for facilitating offense, does a poor job of avoiding turnovers.
The Red Storm have a pressure-heavy defense that is one of the best at forcing turnovers. They are also tough to drive on because they have an elite interior defense. With their pressure, of course, but also their ability to switch and their length and physicality, they allow the tenth-lowest two-point percentage.
As we saw when Kansas switched to a zone, Arkansas’ offense becomes stagnant and ineffective when it is unable to drive to the basket. The Razorbacks’ offense does not want to have to settle for threes.
St. John’s on Offense
The Red Storm has the antidote for Arkansas’ shot-blocking strength. Arkansas does have good shot-blockers inside, but its interior defense wants to face a back-to-the-basket type center like seven-footer Hunter Dickinson.
Two games ago, Arkansas gave up 83 points to Ole Miss in large part because the Rebels could count on 19 points from center Malik Dia, who is characteristically mobile and versatile in his three-level scoring. Zuby Ejiofor, who is built almost exactly like Dia, is the type of center that Arkansas struggles with.
It is tempting to want to pack the paint against the Red Storm, but they made 14 threes against Omaha because they could take advantage of the open looks they were getting from deep.
If you don’t give them those open looks, they’ll beat you inside with Ejiofor, driving menace Kadary Richmond whose mid-range game is good enough for him to lean on it in crunch time, and points off turnovers and offensive rebounds (they rank ninth in offensive rebounding percentage, which is not a strength for Arkansas).
Resume Comparison
Arkansas struggled to get past a Kansas team that was very mediocre this year, whereas the Red Storm started their opening-round game slow but still won by 30. Two games ago, St. John’s pounced Creighton on neutral territory, which is looking like a very good win now.
The Red Storm have thus looked like a much better team per the eye test than an Arkansas squad that most recently struggled against South Carolina and lost to Ole Miss before escaping Kansas.
I’m seeing this as a 10-12-point win for the Red Storm, meaning they’ll also cover.
NCAAB Pick: St. John’s ML (-300) at BetOnline
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Houston Cougars
Saturday, March 22, 2025 – 08:40 PM EDT at Intrust Bank Arena
Houston Will Impose Its Will
Houston is a strong and physical bully that will impose its will on opponents. The Cougars excel at dictating pace, which means that this game will be a grinder and not the up-and-down track meet that Gonzaga wants.
When Gonzaga has to play low-scoring games against tough defenses, then it is in trouble. The Bulldogs, for example, never exceeded 67 points in three tries against Saint Mary’s. They lost and failed to exceed 58 points in two of those games, only beating the Gaels when the latter scored 51 points and failed to make a single three.
Houston’s Playmakers
Unlike Saint Mary’s, Houston is an elite three-point shooting team. The Cougars have an excellent individual playmaker in LJ Cryer. He is one of three Cougars who convert over 42 percent of their three-point attempts.
Gonzaga faced a lot of teams, in their conference, that don’t shoot well from deep, but the Zags’ perimeter defense struggled against groups that do shoot well, with the most obvious example being the Santa Clara group that made 18 threes at Gonzaga.
Gonzaga doesn’t have noteworthy individual defenders to limit a guy like Cryer, but Houston especially with a mistake-averse distributor like Milos Uzan — who owns the nation’s eighth-best assist-to-turnover ratio — will also be able to get other guys involved especially from behind the arc.
Experience
Houston faced Arizona, coached by a Mark Few disciple who spent his first 21 years coaching with Few, and won both meetings.
The Cougars will thus more easily be comfortable with Gonzaga, whereas Few’s Gonzaga has not seen anything like Houston.
As its head coach has talked about openly, Arizona had actually worked to improve its physicality, whereas the Zags are still a characteristically soft and less physical team that will not be able to man up in the way that Houston’s opponents need to.
Overwhelmed, Gonzaga will fail to cover the spread in this game, meaning that the Cougars are also a great play.
NCAAB Pick: Houston ML (-215) at BetOnline
The Parlay
- Purdue ML (-240)
- St. John’s ML (-300)
- Houston ML (-215)
NCAAB Pick: Three-Legged Parlay (+177) at BetOnline
Predict the Madness
March Madness 2025 is here—let the excitement begin!
Stay ahead of the action by securing your picks with our free printable bracket. Track every matchup, predict the champions and challenge your friends in the ultimate showdown. Click the image below to download your bracket and make your selections.
Don’t miss your chance to claim bragging rights—fill yours out today!
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
