2025 MLB Futures: How Far Can the Tigers Go This Year?
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Willie Bee
- February 26, 2025
That was a nice little surprise the Detroit Tigers gave their fans in 2024. Picked third, at best, in the lackluster AL Central and a long shot to make the playoffs, Detroit beat the MLB odds and played its way into the ALDS.
It must have felt a little like déjà vu for Tigers skipper AJ Hinch who experienced much of the same success with the 2015 Houston Astros, a team he managed into the postseason at least a year earlier than most pundits expected.
What Hinch and the rest of the Detroit brass hope for now is that us where the déjà vu and similarities end between those Astros and these Tigers 10 years later.
AL Central is a 4-Team Race
Arriving early for a function can often lead to a lot of standing around waiting for things to begin. The same can be true for baseball teams. After making a splash in 2015, the Astros slipped a bit the following season and missed the playoffs altogether.
While the Tigers won’t be simply standing around and waiting for the postseason to arrive, they also won’t be sneaking up on anyone in 2025. Just like Houston following the 2015 campaign, Detroit now has a target painted on its back and won’t be viewed as easy pickings when other teams see the Tigers on their schedule.
Untangling the competition in the AL Central Division is perhaps the toughest pick to make as teams get into the early part of their spring training schedules. It’s a 4-team race according to the top-rated sportsbooks, with only the Chicago White Sox out of the picture.
Minnesota is generally on top around +210, with Detroit trailing at +240. The Cleveland Guardians show up next at +290 with the Kansas City Royals fourth on the list at +300.
Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) is giving the Twins and Tigers equal billing to win the American League Pennant. Both teams sit at +1100, placing them in the third tier of the futures odds. Cleveland (+1400) and Kansas City (+1500) are once again close behind.
AL Central Division Winner Odds
Addition Without Subtraction
If familiarity and roster continuity mean anything, the Tigers are in good shape entering the 2025 season. Hinch and his coaching staff don’t have to introduce themselves to many new faces after very few changes during the winter.
Pitching was a huge part of Detroit’s success in 2024, and Tarik Skubal was a huge reason why. The 28-year-old southpaw was the unanimous selection for Cy Young honors by capturing the AL ‘triple crown’ in leading the league in wins (18), ERA (2.39) and strikeouts (228).
Jack Flaherty is back in Motown after finishing last season with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Flaherty began 2024 with the Tigers before being dealt to LA and combined to go 13-7 with a 3.39 ERA a year ago. Detroit also added veteran Alex Cobb to the rotation, but will have to wait a while to get him into the mix due to a hip injury. Jackson Jobe, Casey Mize and Reese Olson fill out the rotation.
Jason Foley led the bullpen with 28 saves in 2024, with lefty Tyler Holton picking up 8. That due will be joined by free agent Tommy Kahnle, who pitched to a 2.39 ERA in 92 games out of the New York Yankees’ bullpen the last two seasons.
The Only Real Change to Lineup
Offense was a weak spot for the Tigers in 2024. Detroit finished ninth in scoring (4.21 RPG), and 12th in both home runs (162) and OPS (.685). Those numbers coupled with the fine pitching might lead one to believe the ‘under’ was a good MLB odds bet in Detroit games, but the Tigers instead finished a flat 79-78-5 O/U/P.
To that end, team president Scott Harris and GM Jeff Greenberg didn’t change much during the winter. The biggest bat to be plucked from the free agent market was Gleyber Torres, who is coming off a down year with the Yankees and expected to take over second base in Detroit.
Several youngsters are being counted on to take the next step towards stardom, such as:
- Riley Greene, who led the Tigers with 24 HR and 74 RBI.
- Parker Meadows, who is a 20-20 candidate.
- Colt Keith, who is being switched to first base to make room for Torres and second.
Two mysteries are Javier Baez and Spencer Torkelson. Baez missed the last six weeks a year ago due to hip surgery, but he expects to be ready for Opening Day. Torkelson lost his starting job at first, and that could motivate the slugger to finally realize his potential.
Could the White Sox Play Spoilers?
There’s no question that the 110 games each Detroit and the other four AL Central teams play against AL East, AL West and NL clubs will be important. However, it’s the 52 games AL Central teams play against each other that could hold the key.
Especially the 13 games the Tigers, Twins, Royals and Guardians each play against the White Sox. No, Chicago isn’t going to suddenly rise up and contend for the playoffs, but in such a tight race as the other four are about to engage, not winning at least 9 of those 13 games against the White Sox could be the difference for one or more of the quartet.
And how well, or poorly, Detroit does in those matchups could determine just how far the Tigers can go in 2025.
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
