2025 NBA Championship Odds: Which Teams Can Dethrone the Celtics?
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Rainman M.
- March 14, 2025
NBA Pick: OKC Thunder to Win 2025 NBA Championship (+205) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA Championship odds.
The Boston Celtics are the defending champions, but it is very hard for teams to repeat as champions in consecutive years. Golden State was the last team to do it in 2017 and 2018. Given this history, it is extremely likely that a team not named Boston will win.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in one of the more favored teams and in a sleeper. Oklahoma City is worth .75 units and, because the payout would be immense, Indiana is worth .25 units.
2025 NBA Championship Odds
Cavs Can’t Contain Boston
If a team is worth investing in to win the championship, then it must be expected to, at the very least, make it to the championship series where bettors who invested in it could hedge to guarantee profit.
However, Cleveland is not going to make it out of the East, as they still cannot beat Boston four times. They lost four of five games in last year’s postseason series with Boston, failing to look remotely competitive.
In the current regular season, they continue to exhibit one deficiency that will sustain their demise in a future series against Boston: Their perimeter defense is not good enough.
They struggle in general against five-out offenses, and Boston has one of the NBA’s best, if not the best, five-out offense. The Celtics make the most threes per game and will be too difficult for a Cleveland team that ranks 14th at limiting opposing three-point makes to defend. Their perimeter defense simply lacks sufficient communication and connectedness.
Knicks’ Weak Spots
The Knicks won’t have a championship-caliber defense with Karl-Anthony Towns at center. Although he’s known as an underperformer in the postseason, Towns’ rim protection is non-existent.
However, perimeter defense has also been lacking, with opponents shooting effectively from beyond the arc. Despite having strong wing defenders like Josh Hart, OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges, the team still struggles with three-point defense. They rank 30th in opponent three-point percentage, allowing 37.5% shooting from beyond the arc, which is better illustrated with the following trends:
- Against the Timberwolves, the Knicks allowed 22 three-pointers on 40 attempts.
- Against the Celtics, Boston converted 19 three-pointers at a 49% success rate.
This combination of poor interior and perimeter defense raises concerns about their ability to contend for a championship. As for the conference, these are the futures odds on who might own the East:
Defense Wins Titles—And the Lakers Don’t Have It
At the current price, the Lakers aren’t worth investing in. Their defense is not good enough and they are now missing annual Defensive Player of the Year candidate Anthony Davis.
Before getting out of the West, they’ll have to contend with elite centers such as Denver’s Nikola Jokic and Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren. Unfortunately, Davis was the frontcourt defensive piece that the Lakers needed to help them contain those scorers.
In a recent matchup against the Nuggets, Jokić underscored the Lakers’ vulnerability in the paint without Davis by achieving:
- 34 points
- 13 rebounds
- 8 assists
Despite the addition of Luka Dončić, the Lakers’ defensive gaps remain a significant impediment to their championship aspirations.
Why I Don’t Like The Nuggets
Their bench is awful and is one of the reasons this team lacks sufficient depth. The Nuggets’ bench ranks last in the Western Conference, with a record of 1-11. They average 27.5 points per game off the bench, which is among the lowest in the league.
They also lack a decent guard, discounting the aging Russell Westbrook, alongside Jamal Murray. Westbrook, at 36, has seen a natural decline in his performance. Christian Braun, the starting shooting guard, averages 15.1 points per game but lacks consistency from beyond the arc.
Their bench players, in general, are lacking in shooting — specifically in guys who trust themselves to make threes consistently at a high volume — and defense. The Nuggets’ defense ranks 18th in the league, allowing 115.0 points per game.
Despite ranking 2nd in the Western Conference odds below, these issues in bench performance, guard depth and defense present significant obstacles for the Nuggets in their quest for an NBA Championship.
The Thunder Will Keep Running
One reason why I like the Thunder is their elite offense, which ranks sixth in offensive rating.
They like to run more than most teams. People tend to be prejudiced against transition-heavy offenses in the postseason due to the adage that games slow down in the playoffs and that, accordingly, half-court offense matters more in the postseason.
These people are right, but their prejudice is still misplaced.
Yes, the game does slow down in the playoffs. However, great offenses can and should want to maintain their ability to execute in transition. For example, in 2019, 2020, and 2021, the Raptors, Lakers and Bucks ranked second, second and first, respectively, in transition frequency.
NBA champions repeatedly prove to be teams that like to run.
The Thunder, anyhow, are also great in the halfcourt. They have the best player in the game right now, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is heavily favored to win MVP, due to his scoring prowess and his ability to get his teammates involved.
Oklahoma City’s Contention Wall
The Thunder are also elite on defense, as they rank first in defensive rating. They are well-stacked with stout perimeter defenders and solid paint protectors.
One great defender is Luguentz Dort, who was very close to making the All-Defensive Second Team last year. Holmgren and Gilgeous-Alexander were also close.
Moreover, advanced metrics point to Isaiah Hartenstein being one of the NBA’s top frontcourt defenders. He arguably does the most to help protect the paint, although his teammates, with their digging and other tactics, contribute to the difficulty that opposing ball-handlers encounter when they try to drive inside.
Hence, the Thunder allow the second-fewest field goals within five feet of the basket. And largely thanks to Dort and Gilgeous-Alexander, they also allow the fourth-fewest three-point makes, positioning them to match up well against a team like Boston.
Takeaway
The Thunder have the superstar, the halfcourt and transition offense, and the elite perimeter and interior defense to win it all.
Let’s invest .75 units in the Thunder.
NBA Pick: OKC Thunder to Win 2025 NBA Championship (+205) at Bovada
| SPORTSBOOK | TRUST SCORE | BONUS | ONLINE SINCE | BEST FOR | Bet Now |
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$250 Free Bet
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2001
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$750 Cash Bonus
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1994
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20% Cash Bonus
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2001
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55% Cash Bonus
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2001
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$500 Cash Bonus
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1985
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$500 Cash Bonus
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1983
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Pacers’ Price Tag Makes No Sense
I find the Indiana Pacers absurdly priced. They have sufficient experience after making it to the Eastern Conference Finals last year.
It might look like it to casual observers because they were 10-15, but they are getting better relative to last season. Early this season, they dealt with injuries that caused them to underperform. However, with players now getting healthy, they are 20-8 since that rough start.
Since January, the Pacers have ranked eighth in offensive rating and ninth in defensive rating. For comparison’s sake, favored Boston has ranked ninth in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating in the same span of time.
Indiana’s Defense is No Joke
The Pacers have a shot-block machine in Myles Turner, Defensive Player of the Month in January Andrew Nembhard is a top-caliber point-of-attack defender, and lengthy Aaron Nesmith regularly contains the opposing team’s top threat, as evident in his success limiting the field goal percentage of New York star Jalen Brunson.
On offense, Nembhard is a valuable secondary creator alongside point guard Tyrese Haliburton.
The Pacers have shooters, ranking tenth in three-point percentage, and a great facilitator like Haliburton to put them in a position to succeed. They are also, again partly due to Haliburton, the third-most efficient team around the basket.
Takeaway
Indiana is a worthy sleeper with its marked improvements on offense and defense. Let’s invest .25 units in the Pacers.
NBA Pick: Indiana Pacers to Win 2025 NBA Championship (+17500) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
