2025 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Odds: Quarterback By Default?

In the NFL, quarterbacks have a monopoly on the No. 1 pick in the draft almost as much as they do at winning the MVP award these days. Eight of the last 10 No. 1 picks were quarterbacks, and that number is 20 of the last 27 going back to Peyton Manning in 1998.

You have to go back to 1994-97 to find the last time more than 2 consecutive drafts didn’t start with a quarterback. Last year, a record 6 of the first 12 picks were quarterbacks, including the top 3 picks (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye) in the 2024 NFL draft.

But that was last year’s class. When there is a record number of quarterbacks taken like that, the next year is usually a case of regression to the mean. Now many are wondering if the 2025 draft should even have 2 quarterbacks go in the first round.

However, top-rated sportsbooks are starting to paint a consensus picture that one quarterback in particular should hear his name called 1st on draft night in a month. Does that necessarily mean it’s a foregone conclusion the 2025 draft starts with that quarterback?

Let’s examine the current odds from BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).

The Favorite: Cam Ward (-800)

Miami quarterback Cam Ward had a fantastic 2024 season after transferring from Washington State. He threw for 39 touchdowns while posting 10 300-yard passing games as an improved passer.

Ward has taken over as the consensus-best quarterback in this draft class over Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders. Many see Ward as a capable dual threat at the next level as someone who can extend plays and throw on the run.

With respect to Aaron Rodgers holding the free-agent quarterback market hostage as he waits to make his 2025 decision, most NFL teams know their quarterback plan for next season. Even a team like the Giants, who hold the No. 3 pick and would be a great spot for Ward, got tired of waiting and signed Jameis Winston the other day.

The Cleveland Browns hold the No. 2 pick, they still have Deshaun Watson (Achilles) under contract, and they traded for Kenny Pickett, who they told will have a chance to compete for the starting job.

But the Tennessee Titans hold the No. 1 pick and haven’t announced any plans to trade it away. An offer could still come in the next month, but for now, the 2025 draft starts with Tennessee, and it’s hard to see this team standing by Will Levis as the starter for his 3rd season.

First, the Titans have a new general manager who didn’t draft Levis in 2023, and Brian Callahan’s coaching staff also wasn’t there in 2023, so there’s no real commitment there to him as a prospect. As a second-round pick, the financial commitment is also relatively peanuts for Levis.

Second, the Titans benched Levis for his bad turnovers last season as he became a weekly meme event with his blunders. Then Mason Rudolph actually outplayed him in Callahan’s offense, and the team didn’t bring Rudolph (signed by Pittsburgh) back. They brought in Brandon Allen, who worked with Callahan in Cincinnati, but that’s not a realistic QB1 option either.

In other words, the Titans have every reason to pick Ward with the No. 1 overall pick and move forward with him as their franchise quarterback. It would probably be a bad choice to do anything else with the pick unless someone offers a king’s ransom – think Trey Lance trade up in 2021 or Robert Griffin III in 2012 – for the No. 1 pick this year.

So, realistically, the No. 1 pick should be Cam Ward going to the Titans. But crazier things have happened, and if you don’t believe wholeheartedly in a prospect like this, you shouldn’t divert your franchise off course to pursue him.

The Defender: Abdul Carter (+450)

If you’re not going to take a quarterback No. 1 overall, then the next best position to draft is usually an edge rusher. This year’s top prize looks to be Penn State defensive end Abdul Carter, who had a career-high 12.0 sacks in 2024. He is projected to be the best defensive player in the draft.

If you watched Super Bowl 59, you saw the Eagles destroy the Chiefs with their pass rush, especially the edge rushers throwing Patrick Mahomes’ left tackle in his face to force an interception.

But when you’re picking No. 1 like the Titans, can you really afford to go for the pass rusher now when Will Levis is your quarterback?  You’re not competing in a ridiculously deep AFC at quarterback with Levis. That’s why your team just won 3 games and Mason Rudolph was your best passer.

Carter isn’t an otherworldly prospect either like Myles Garrett was when the Browns made him the No. 1 pick in the 2017 draft. He’s also not on the level, college wise, that Jadeveon Clowney was in 2014 when he was the No. 1 pick by the Houston Texans.

It would be an upset for the Titans to go Carter over Ward, but it would at least be the next best position to draft.

The Wild Card: Travis Hunter (+2200)

One of the 2025 draft’s biggest wild cards is Colorado’s dual threat Travis Hunter, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner who can play corner and wide receiver. In fact, he wants to play both in the NFL just as he did in college football where he played an absurd number of snaps every week while still excelling at both positions.

That works for college, but it’s hard to say anyone can do it in the NFL in the modern era. Would he wear down and prove ineffective late in games? Would he only be decent at both positions instead of mastering one position where he can become great? Is any coaching staff crazy enough to take him on his wishes and let him do this experiment on both sides of the ball?

Drafting Hunter isn’t the easiest choice to make, and while the Titans could use a weapon and a corner, I’m not sure drafting him over Ward would be the best way to achieve that.

The Other Quarterback: Shedeur Sanders (+3300)

Look, people get quarterback evaluations wrong all the time, including NFL teams and scouts. There are people who should never live down the drafting of Mitch Trubisky over Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson in 2017.

Even last year, Caleb Williams was the consensus No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft, but after one NFL season, everyone wants Jayden Daniels, who had arguably the best rookie quarterback season in history. Those video game numbers he had at LSU in 2023 apparently weren’t fake after all.

With that said, things change, and maybe people who favor Cam Ward over Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders will be wrong too. Sanders, despite his athletic father, isn’t known for scrambling as well as other top quarterback prospects in recent drafts. He’s been compared more to Geno Smith and Teddy Bridgewater rather than Lamar Jackson or Jayden Daniels.

There’s also the fear that Deion Sanders, the coach at Colorado, will be overbearing in the draft process and possibly forbid his son from playing for a certain team a la the Manning family with Eli and the Chargers in 2004.

In fact, Deion has already said the media is planting negative stories about his son to tank his draft stock with some saying he should fall out of the 1st round altogether, or at least not a top 20 pick.

Someone is probably going to draft Sanders relatively high, and they may even end up happy about it. But he’s not gaining any steam for the No. 1 pick, and frankly, he’s never had the push for it this year as more experts thought Hunter was the best player in Boulder.

The Longshot: Jaxson Dart (+8000)

Again, most have framed this quarterback class as Cam Ward having a big edge over Shedeur Sanders for QB1. But with so many quarterback-hungry teams out there, you can’t discount the potential of forcing another quarterback into the mix like Jaxson Dart from USC and Ole Miss. He is coming off his best season where he had 4,279 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.

But Dart is rightfully a huge longshot (+8000 at BetOnline) to be the No. 1 pick in this class. At best, he might end up being the surprise No. 2 quarterback off the board ahead of Sanders, but there’s little to no chance he goes above Ward, let alone before any other player hears their name called.

If a team like the Pittsburgh Steelers like Dart, that may be where they go for their quarterback of the future after they were unable to find one by any other means this offseason.

Conclusion: Ward or Bust?

Unless Aaron Rodgers decides to sign with the Titans before the draft, it’s hard to say Ward won’t be the No. 1 pick based on the way things stand now. Even if Rodgers did sign there, they should still consider drafting Ward. Rodgers turns 42 this December.

Any team who trades with the Titans to move up to No. 1 should only do so for a quarterback if they know what they’re doing, and that quarterback should be Ward, so that feels like a confident pick on that front.

The only way it gets murky is if someone really falls in love with Hunter or Carter and wants to make sure they get them at the top of the draft.

But which team would really do that right now? The Bills could use another pass rusher if they’re ever going to get past the Chiefs in the playoffs, but mortgaging the future to get Carter at No. 1 feels too bold. They’d be better off trading picks for a proven star like Maxx Crosby or Myles Garrett, who both signed mega deals to stay with their losing teams.

Maybe the best betting value will be matching Ward to a team other than the Titans should someone like the Giants trade up to get him. But for now, the -800 odds on Ward going No. 1 sounds like it’s getting close to inevitable that he starts the 2025 draft as the top player off the board.

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.