2025 NFL Draft QB Odds in the 1st Round: How Far Could Sanders and Dart Slide?
-
Scott Kacsmar
- April 21, 2025
The 2025 NFL Draft begins this Thursday with the 1st round, and about the only thing we know with close to certainty is that Miami quarterback Cam Ward is going to be the No. 1 pick when the Tennessee Titans submit their pick.
Ward has -20000 odds at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) to go No. 1 overall, and he’s been saying crazy things like Calvin Ridley is the best wide receiver in the NFL to show he’s all in on the Titans this year.
But what about the other quarterbacks expected to go in the 1st round, Shedeur Sanders and Jaxson Dart? Are they even guaranteed to go in the 1st round? Let’s look at the latest odds for their markets with our picks.
Total Quarterbacks Drafted in 1st Round
At BetOnline, the number for the total number of quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 is set to 2.5 with these odds:
- Over 2.5 quarterbacks (-325)
- Under 2.5 quarterbacks (+215)
This implies there’s over a 76% chance that over 2.5 quarterbacks are getting drafted Thursday night. It may not be more than 3 quarterbacks, but that’s still enough for the win on this over market.
We said Cam Ward is going No. 1 overall, but there’s still a good chance Shedeur Sanders and Jaxson Dart go in the top 32 picks too. Jalen Milroe (Alabama) has an outside shot as well.
For starters, the financial aspect is too good to pass up as you can cost control a quarterback for 5 seasons by selecting them in the 1st round. You get the standard 4-year deal plus a 5th-year option for their contract. This implores a team to want to get the most expensive and important position with a 1st-round pick.
Second, there are too many teams that need a quarterback, as you can identify the Browns, Giants, Raiders, Jets, Saints, and Steelers as teams who could pull the trigger on Sanders or Dart in this draft. Maybe even the 49ers would trade back into the late 1st round if Sanders was still available, if they didn’t want to pay Brock Purdy in the neighborhood of $60 million per season.
It’s a quarterback-driven league, and after the Falcons used the No. 8 pick on Michael Penix Jr. last year after signing Kirk Cousins to a 4-year deal the month before, anything feels possible these days. Don’t discount the Cardinals drafting a quarterback at No. 16 with Kyler Murray still there, for example.
This should be an easy over even if these other quarterbacks may have to sweat out where they land Thursday night.
NFL Pick: Over 2.5 Quarterbacks Drafted in 1st Round (-325) at BetOnline
Shedeur Sanders Draft Position
At BetOnline, Shedeur Sanders has a draft position set at 8.5 with these odds:
- Over 8.5 (-400)
- Under 8.5 (+250)
Unless they are doing a masterful job of pulling the wool over our eyes, the Browns (No. 2 pick) and Giants (No. 3) have both made comments and moves that suggest they are not interested in drafting Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders with such high picks.
In fact, BetOnline has Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter with -1100 odds to go No. 2 to Cleveland, and edge rusher Abdul Carter is up to -600 odds for the No. 3 pick.
Again, maybe no one knows anything, and bettors could hit some huge value this year. Remember, many people thought Will Levis was going No. 4 to the Colts 2 years ago in 2023, and he ended up going in the 2nd round to the Titans. Penix Jr. had a draft position of over/under 32.5 last year before the Falcons took him No. 8. Crazier things have happened.
But ultimately, it still looks like the Giants and Browns will decline Sanders, the Patriots and Jaguars don’t need him, so that leaves it up to the Raiders (No. 6) and Jets (No. 7) to determine this one.
Frankly, the Raiders make sense as they’d essentially be getting a younger version of Geno Smith, a pocket passer who can teach Sanders well before passing the torch in a couple of seasons. At the same time, head coach Pete Carroll is trying to win now as the oldest coach in the league, and he may not be interested in drafting a future project when he can get someone like running back Ashton Jeanty.
Meanwhile, the Jets are paying Justin Fields modest money, but $20 million per year isn’t peanuts. They may want to draft someone who can help Fields this year instead of someone who replaces him in December or 2026.
The Panthers (No. 8) will stick with Bryce Young in his 3rd season. So, as long as 4 teams decline Sanders, this is going to be over 8.5 as the Saints (No. 9) could be his home.
NFL Pick: Shedeur Sanders Draft Position – Over 8.5 (-400) at BetOnline
Team to Draft Shedeur Sanders
At BetOnline, these are the NFL teams with the best odds to draft Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders:
| Team | Odds | Offered by |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | (+145) | |
| Cleveland Browns | (+325) | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | (+350) | |
| New York Giants | (+475) | |
| Las Vegas Raiders | (+1200) | |
| New York Jets | (+1400) | |
The Raiders offer some good value here as it’s the kind of under-the-radar move that often shakes up draft night that still makes sense. But the Steelers don’t pick until No. 21, and it’s hard to think they’ll even want Sanders if he’s still sitting there that long after at least 4 teams who could use him all said no. That’s a bad sign for his NFL future.
Think of why no one took a quarterback in 2023 until the Steelers drafted Kenny Pickett at No. 20. It’s no wonder that is one of the worst quarterback classes in NFL history. It’s telling when the league keeps passing on the most important position in favor of other prospects.
Taking the chalk here with the Saints after the news about Derek Carr’s shoulder that could cost him the 2025 season. He was already on thin ice with the team turning things over to a new coach in Kellen Moore, but this feels like the last straw and a reason to go forward with a rookie quarterback in Sanders (or Dart).
NFL Pick: Team to Draft Shedeur Sanders – New Orleans Saints (+145) at BetOnline
Jaxson Dart Draft Position
Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart reportedly won’t be attending the NFL draft in Green Bay after originally planning to. This has some thinking he’s got the news that his stock is slipping, and he’ll fall to the 2nd round where those teams like the Browns, Giants, and Raiders could easily grab him in the 30s.
However, the top sportsbooks are still suggesting a 1st-round draft night for Dart. He has -400 odds at BetOnline to go in the 1st round, and here are his odds for his draft position line of 24.5:
- Over 24.5 (+110)
- Under 24.5 (-150)
Here is how it can get very interesting. Let’s say by the time the Steelers pick at No. 21, Sanders is off the board, and maybe they don’t like Dart enough and decide to draft a defensive lineman instead. Pittsburgh’s odds to use its 1st pick on a quarterback is only +250, so it’s reasonable they don’t.
If Dart is on the board at No. 22, who is taking him? It’s probably not going to be these teams:
The only one there even worth questioning is the Rams given Matthew Stafford’s age and that a potential QB of the future at No. 26 is good value for Sean McVay and company.
That’s why it is possible for Dart to fall to the 2nd round, then it’s a matter of the Browns (No. 33) and Giants (No. 34) fighting for him. In that case, the Giants could even trade back up into the 1st round to take Dart and keep him away from Cleveland while picking up that 5th-year option in his contract.
It’s an interesting market that comes down to how much trust you have in the Browns, Giants, Raiders, Jets, Saints, and Steelers saying ‘yes’ or ‘no’ to Sanders and Dart in the top 21 picks.
If this draft was in 2024 mode, then the Raiders would take Sanders at No. 6 to pair him with Geno Smith a la Kirk Cousins/Michael Penix Jr., and someone would trade up to get Dart a la Bo Nix going No. 12 to Denver.
But maybe teams are willing to wait for the Arch Manning Sweepstakes in future drafts and aren’t that high on Sanders and Dart. At least one of them should be off the board by No. 22, but it’s hardly a guarantee they both are.
That’s why this may sound like a contradiction of our earlier picks (over 2.5 quarterbacks in 1st round), but think of it as a hedge too. We’ll take Dart going over 24.5 with the thought that someone trades up for him or the Rams draft him at No. 26. For that matter, don’t discount the Steelers using the No. 21 pick on Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe, leaving Dart searching for a home after 24.5 and over 2.5 quarterbacks still hitting with ease.
This draft is getting too much chalky analysis to think 32 NFL teams are going to do logical things and draft for need above all else. Some crazy things will happen Thursday night, and we want to hedge on crazy.
NFL Pick: Jaxson Dart Draft Position – Over 24.5 (+110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
