The Detroit Lions are on the doorstep of their 1st Super Bowl appearance in team history. But standing in their way are the San Francisco 49ers. They are making their 3rd-straight appearance in the NFC Championship Game under Kyle Shanahan.
The 49ers have lost the previous 2 years. The difference this year is they are at home and are a 7-point favorite. That is a big spread for a championship game. So the Lions are going to have to fully embrace the underdog mentality after spending the last 2 weeks as a home favorite in the NFL odds.
If you are thinking about taking Detroit for your NFL picks this week at our main sportsbooks, here are 3 keys for the Lions to beat the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, January 28, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Levi’s Stadium
1. Win the Turnover Battle
If Brock Purdy throws you the ball, catch it. The same can be said about Jared Goff on the other side. This is why the turnover battle should be so crucial in a game like this when both quarterbacks like to get risky (or frisky) with the ball.
We have probably seen more dropped interceptions than interceptions that count this postseason. This might explain why those players are on defense instead of making big bucks as pass catchers. Purdy and Goff got away with their share last week and their opponents (Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield) were not so lucky.
But if the Lions are going to win this game, they have to create a turnover or something to keep the 49ers under 27 points:
- Detroit is 11-1 when scoring at least 24 points this season.
- Detroit is 12-1 when allowing fewer than 27 points this season.
- San Francisco is 13-0 when scoring at least 24 points this season. Last week was the 1st win without scoring 27-plus points.
- San Francisco is only 4-5 when allowing at least 19 points this season.
Turnover Tally
The Lions can score at a high rate, but teams generally do not get into shootouts with the 49ers, who are usually too good defensively.
- Detroit is 12-1 when it does not have multiple turnovers this season (2-4 with multiple giveaways).
- Detroit is 13-2 when forcing at least 1 takeaway (1-3 without any takeaways).
- San Francisco is 3-4 when it does not force multiple turnovers.
- Since 2022, San Francisco is 1-8 when turning the ball over at least twice.
Beating the 49ers usually means holding them down on the scoreboard and forcing the quarterback into some turnovers. That has not been the strength of this Detroit team. That is why you have to play above your head to win a big playoff game as a road underdog in this league.
At the very least, the Lions have not allowed their last 6 opponents to score more than 24 points. This would be a good number to focus on here with the 49ers possibly not having Deebo Samuel (shoulder) available.
But at the end of the day, Goff has to put the ball in harm’s way less than Purdy does for this to be a successful game for the Lions.
2. A Ben Johnson Masterclass
Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has been doing interviews to become the next head coach of other teams during this hiring cycle. He is one of the hottest names out there after 2 years of success in this role with the Lions.
But he can really make a name for himself by having a big showing in this matchup in San Francisco. The Lions need a balanced attack to keep up with the 49ers. They should also not put the whole game on Jared Goff’s shoulders.
They usually accomplish that with their backfield of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. But it will be more important than ever for Johnson to see which back has the upper hand and to use him accordingly. Last week, the 49ers allowed Green Bay’s Aaron Jones to rush for over 100 yards, including a 53-yard burst in the 4th quarter that led to no points cause the kicker missed a 41-yard field goal for the Packers.
In fact, the Packers also had a 38-yard completion to Romeo Doubs. It led to no points because the team was stuffed on a quick quarterback sneak attempt on 4th-and-1. The Packers wasted 2 huge plays. They were terrible in the red zone against a San Francisco defense that is surprisingly just 16th in red zone touchdown rate.
Red Zone Precision
The Lions have to be on top of their game in the red zone as they are No. 3 in touchdown rate down there. They almost messed up that sequence last week against Tampa Bay, but they were able to pound the ball in on 4th down with Craig Reynolds after getting cute with passes.
The Lions need to be physical with the 49ers, and they need to make sure Gibbs and Montgomery are combining for an effort that can offset whatever Christian McCaffrey does on the other side for the 49ers.
Deebo Samuel is considered 50-50 to play for the 49ers, but Amon-Ra St. Brown should be good to go for Detroit. He has looked the part of a No. 1 receiver for a couple of years now, but he is playing better than ever. He needs to have a huge game as he can be a key player in the slot, on-screen passes, and down the field as well. The Lions also have a healthy Sam LaPorta catching everything he can at tight end to give the team a favorable counter to what George Kittle can do for the 49ers.
Strategic Imperatives
Just remember, the 49ers are better at scheming players open and are facing the inferior defense in this matchup. Everything Detroit does is going to be harder given the difference in defenses, but teams like the Ravens and Packers recently showed this San Francisco defense is far from invincible. You just have to finish drives for points and protect the ball.
It’s up to Johnson to call his best game and put the Lions in positions to succeed. The 24-to-31 points they have been scoring at home this postseason could be enough to win this game on the road, but Goff will have to play better than he usually does away from the dome.
3. Dan Campbell: Leave Nothing in the Tank
When the Lions hired Dan Campbell in 2021, he said his team was going to bite some kneecaps. Since then, the Lions have the best spread record in the NFL at 36-17 (67.9%). This year they are 14-5 and a win away from a Super Bowl appearance.
He has built a scrappy, resilient team that hasn’t exactly been the prototype for that kind of squad. They have a very productive passing game but the defense has been a bigger issue than anything during Campbell’s tenure.
Usually, a “tough team” is led by running the ball (smash mouth) and playing physical defense. That’s not Detroit, but it is more of a mindset with this team. They feature some players other teams discarded or overlooked:
- Jared Goff was a throwaway in the fabled trade in 2021 that sent Matthew Stafford to the Rams.
- The Lions took some gruff for drafting Penei Sewell with the No. 7 pick in 2021. He has developed into one of the best linemen in the NFL.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown was only a 4th-round pick in 2021. And yet, he has more catches than 1st-round classmates Ja’Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle.
- The Bears didn’t want David Montgomery anymore, so he came to Detroit and scored a career-high 13 touchdowns.
- Linebacker Alex Anzalone followed Campbell from New Orleans to Detroit in 2021. He has had his 2 best seasons since 2022 with over 125 tackles in both years.
- Tight end Sam LaPorta and defensive back Brian Branch were thought to be drafted too high by the Lions. Both rookies have been key contributors to the team’s success.
Resilient Roar
This team won’t ever give up on games. They last played the 49ers in Campbell’s debut game in 2021 and Detroit trailed 41-17 with 5:45 left. The Lions scored a pair of touchdowns and 2-point conversions, recovered an onside kick, and forced a Deebo Samuel fumble. They had the ball in the final seconds and were 24 yards (and another 2-point conversion) away from the most improbable 24-point comeback in NFL history. They lost 41-33 but it set a tone for the kind of resilient team Campbell would coach in Detroit.
Since 2021, the Lions are 21-10 ATS as an underdog, the 4th-best record in that span. Part of the team’s underdog approach is being aggressive with 4th downs. Since 2021, Detroit leads the NFL with 4th down attempts (118) and conversions (62).
Nothing should be off the table for Campbell this week when it comes to 4th downs, 2-point conversions, and even onside kicks. He came from Sean Payton’s coaching tree in New Orleans, and Payton’s signature call was the surprise onside kick to start the 3rd quarter in Super Bowl 44 against the Colts.
Campbell will have his team embrace the underdog role this week, and that can make them a more dangerous team for the 49ers to deal with. They have certainly come a long way from the team the 49ers saw in Campbell’s 1st game.
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