49ers vs. Packers NFL Week 12 Picks: Green Bay Will Prevail at Home

San Francisco’s Disappointing Loss Against Seattle

The San Francisco 49ers suffered a tough 20-17 home loss to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. The win created a three-way tie for second place in the NFC West between Seattle, San Francisco, and the Rams, all one game behind the division-leading Cardinals.

The 49ers have now lost three divisional games this season, all after blowing leads in the fourth quarter, including previous defeats to the Rams and Cardinals.

The 49ers seemed poised for a comeback victory when Brock Purdy connected with Jauan Jennings on a 30-yard touchdown pass to take a 17-13 lead with 9:33 left in the game. Their defense then stopped Seattle on consecutive plays at the 37-yard line, denying the Seahawks a critical first down.

However, San Francisco’s offense couldn’t seal the win, giving Geno Smith and the Seahawks the opening they needed for a late comeback.

Purdy completed 21 of 28 passes for 159 yards, including a touchdown pass, a rushing touchdown, and an interception. Jennings was a bright spot, hauling in 10 receptions for 91 yards and a score. Christian McCaffrey contributed 106 yards from scrimmage.

San Francisco’s injury woes continued, as star edge rusher Nick Bosa left in the third quarter after aggravating a hip pointer injury. Tight end George Kittle (hamstring) was inactive after being listed as questionable, while linebacker Tatum Bethune (knee) exited in the first quarter. Wide receiver Jacob Cowing (concussion) also left in the first half. The availability of Bosa, Kittle, Bethune, and Cowing for next week remains uncertain.

Green Bay Survives in Chicago

The Green Bay Packers edged the Chicago Bears 20-19 in a thrilling finish. Jordan Love’s one-yard go-ahead touchdown run with 2:59 left, set up by a 60-yard connection to Christian Watson, proved decisive.

Although the Packers failed on the two-point conversion, they held on when Karl Brooks blocked Cairo Santos’ 46-yard field goal attempt as time expired. The win marked Green Bay’s 11th straight victory over Chicago, the longest streak in the rivalry’s history.

Love completed 13 of 17 passes for 261 yards and a touchdown but also threw his league-leading 11th interception, matching his total from last season. Watson was electrifying, recording four catches for 150 yards.

Josh Jacobs led Green Bay’s ground attack with 76 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. The Packers’ defense made key contributions, with sacks from Brenton Cox, Rashan Gary, and T.J. Slaton. Green Bay has now defeated Chicago in 26 of their last 29 meetings, keeping pace with Detroit and Minnesota in the NFC North standings.

Key Matchups

Injuries for San Francisco could play a significant role, while Green Bay will look to build on their defensive successes and Jordan Love’s improving chemistry with Christian Watson.

49ers’ Defense vs. Jordan Love

San Francisco’s defense, while typically formidable, may be hampered by injuries to Nick Bosa and Tatum Bethune.

If Bosa can’t go, Green Bay’s offensive line might have an easier time giving Love the protection he needs to attack downfield. Love showed his big-play ability with a 60-yard connection to Watson last week, but his tendency for turnovers (league-leading 11 interceptions) will be under scrutiny.

If San Francisco’s defense can pressure Love and capitalize on mistakes, it could tilt the game in their favor.

49ers’ Ground Game vs. Packers’ Run Defense

The 49ers will lean heavily on McCaffrey, who gained 106 yards from scrimmage against Seattle, to exploit a Packers defense that has been inconsistent against the run.

McCaffrey’s dual-threat ability as a rusher and receiver will challenge Green Bay’s linebackers, who must be disciplined to limit explosive plays. If McCaffrey gets going early, it could open up play-action opportunities for Purdy.

Brock Purdy vs. Packers’ Pass Rush

Purdy has been efficient, completing 75% of his passes against Seattle, but his production has been limited to short and intermediate throws. With Gary and Slaton coming off strong performances, Green Bay’s pass rush will look to disrupt Purdy’s timing and force him into uncomfortable situations.

If Purdy can stay clean in the pocket, he has the weapons in Jennings and McCaffrey to pick apart Green Bay’s secondary.

Packers’ Offense vs. 49ers’ Injuries

Watson’s big-play potential will be a key focus. Without Bosa, San Francisco may struggle to generate consistent pressure, giving Love time to connect with Watson downfield. However, the Packers’ lack of a reliable secondary option outside Watson could make them one-dimensional if San Francisco’s defense focuses on limiting explosive plays.

Special Teams and Turnovers

With both teams showing signs of vulnerability, turnovers, and special teams will likely decide the outcome.

The Packers have been opportunistic on defense, while the 49ers will aim to force Love into mistakes. A blocked field goal like Green Bay managed last week could swing momentum in a tight game.

The Pick

This game is shaping up to be a battle of attrition, with injuries playing a significant role for San Francisco and Green Bay’s inconsistency on offense leaving questions unanswered. The 49ers’ ability to control the clock with McCaffrey and their defense’s knack for creating pressure, even when shorthanded, could give them a slight edge.

Green Bay’s explosive potential with Watson and their improved defensive line will be the difference in this matchup. The game will likely come down to whether Purdy can avoid turnovers and whether the 49ers’ defense can contain Love’s deep-ball attempts.

NFL Pick: Packers ML (-135) at Heritage Sports

Packers ML (-135)

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