49ers vs. Bills Sunday Night Football Pick: Are the 49ers Cooked?

What’s the Plan of Attack for San Francisco Without Purdy?

These are desperate times for the 49ers with a 5-6 record, favored to fall to 5-7 in this matchup. But Buffalo is a non-conference opponent, so there’s not a ton of familiarity between these teams, which could be a good thing for the more talented roster.

The problem is we’re not sure if the 49ers still have the more talented roster. Not only was Brock Purdy out in Week 12, but the team also didn’t have Nick Bosa (best edge rusher), Trent Williams (best offensive lineman), and Charvarius Ward (one of their best corners). That’s not even mentioning all the other players they’ve lost this season like Brandon Aiyuk, Javon Hargrave and safety Talanoa Hufanga.

Pretty hard when you’re down so many key starters at the most valuable positions in the league. We also don’t know yet if they will return Sunday night with Purdy the most important of them all, of course.

But you would think the 49ers might have tried to build around a running game and Christian McCaffrey in Green Bay last week. He hasn’t looked like the same star back we are used to after Achilles tendinitis and training camp injuries kept him out until November. He’s yet to find the end zone on 56 touches in 3 games, and his rushing success rate is 39.5%. It was 54.0% last season for the 49ers.

Heading for a Long Day

The Bills have shown some vulnerability against the run this year, but it’s usually been against a team that has a mobile threat at quarterback too like the Ravens (Lamar Jackson) or Cardinals (Kyler Murray).  The 49ers barely have that with Purdy to begin with, though he has been scrambling more than ever this season. Still, the standard running game in San Francisco is not where it needs to be at the moment.

Then, when you talk about throwing the ball, it’s going to be tough as the Bills are great at forcing turnovers. They intercepted Patrick Mahomes twice in their last outing before the bye week.

If the 49ers have to start Brandon Allen again at quarterback, then good luck to him. He wasn’t horrific in Green Bay, but he also didn’t do much to sustain offense or inspire confidence that he could get the job done with the likes of McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings and George Kittle still at his disposal.

Allen is 2-8 as a starter in his NFL career. He’s lost half of those games by double digits. He’s also never played a team as strong as Buffalo is right now, so this will be a step up in competition for him, and we know the Bills can usually score a good number of points at home with Josh Allen.

It’s hard to see where the 49ers win this game unless they force Allen into one of those huge turnover nights that he’s avoided in 2024.

Can the 49ers Force Allen Into Mistakes?

One of the differences with Buffalo this season is that it hasn’t had that meltdown game with turnovers from Josh Allen and the offense. That’s what did them in last year in losses against the Jets and Broncos. It usually comes up a few times each season, but so far in 2024, the Bills have 7 giveaways, one of the lowest numbers in the league.

However, they have turned it over in 4 straight games, so the 49ers will have to get a couple of those to keep this game competitive with short fields and make it easier on whoever their quarterback ends up being.

Red Zone Magic

The Bills are still a Top 10 offense on 3rd down. In the red zone, they average 29.1 points per game (No. 3) and they can run with James Cook and run their quarterback against you. They may also have reinforcements this week if rookie wideout Keon Coleman and tight end Dalton Kincaid are good to go after healing on the bye week. Both missed the Kansas City game, but the Bills were still able to become the 1st team to score 30 points on the Chiefs in the last 2 seasons that day.

Allen is very hard to sack, and that gets even harder if Nick Bosa can’t go for the defense. He’ll try to get back into action, but there is no guarantee there this week. He’s also someone who can help with the turnovers as the right pressure could force a riskier throw that gets intercepted.

49ers vs. Bills (-7): Who Covers the Spread?

Josh Allen has only played the 49ers once, and he shredded them (and their backup quarterback) in a 34-24 game in 2020, the year when the 49ers had a ton of injuries and missed the playoffs with a losing record. We could be in for some déjà vu here.

But this one is a tough call with more injury reports to come later in the week on the 49ers. It’s possible you can take Bills -7 now and get the good news that the likes of Purdy and Bosa will be out, making it more likely to happen Sunday night.

It could also go the other way with Purdy and Bosa returning, and the line should move a bit closer to the 49ers. Purdy rarely loses by more than a touchdown in his career, doing so just 4 times in 37 starts, including that 2022 NFC Championship Game he left injured.

However, we have seen the 49ers lose big to teams like the 2023 Ravens and Bengals, teams with MVP contenders at quarterback. The Chiefs beat the 49ers 28-18 in San Francisco this year, and we know the Chiefs almost never win by double digits these days.

That’s Buffalo’s thing. The Bills are either going to win big or lose close, similar to the 49ers of healthier years. Barring some healthy returns or a Josh Allen pick parade after the bye week, the Bills should control this game and cover the spread by winning by at least 8 points.

It’s a line to be cautious with as you still need clarity on who is suiting up for the 49ers, but right now, Buffalo is the superior team and playing very well on both sides of the ball.

NFL Pick: Bills -7 (-105) at Bovada

Bills -7 (-105)

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