Our top-rated sportsbooks had the 49ers favored all week over Kansas City.
Nevertheless, the Chiefs prevailed in overtime with a 25-22 victory, giving them back-to-back Super Bowl wins. Patrick Mahomes now has three rings.
So why did the Chiefs’ moneyline turn out to be one of the best bets? Here are three reasons I will discuss: San Francisco’s missed opportunities to win the game in regulation, Kansas City’s excellent defense and the clutch Patrick Mahomes.
San Francisco’s Missed Opportunities
San Francisco was favored by oddsmakers because they were the more talented team. The team with the greater overall star-power. While Kansas City had Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, San Francisco had one of the NFL’s best running backs, an excellent wide receiver duo, the NFL’s top tight end and a great offensive system.
The 49ers demonstrated their offensive prowess already on the opening drive, which saw them make multiple chunk plays. Quarterback Brock Purdy completed an 18-yard pass and then an eleven-yard pass; Christian McCaffrey then achieved an eleven-yard run.
These chunk plays took San Francisco to Kansas City’s 27-yard line, well within the range of field goal kicker Jake Moody. But then CMC fumbled the ball away. So instead of gaining at least three points, the 49ers did not get any points. Consider this drive three points left on the board.
Later in the game, San Francisco scored a touchdown to go up 16-10, pending the extra point.
Extra Points
Normally, extra points are a gimme.
This season, the 49ers have converted around 97 percent of their extra-point attempts. But they failed on this attempt because Kansas City blocked it. Even with the brutal first-quarter fumble from CMC, the 49ers could have won the game in regulation. Instead, the game was 19-19 after four quarters.
Missed opportunities impeded the 49ers from putting the game away early when their offense was having so much success. As a head coach or offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan has now surrendered three double-digit leads in the Super Bowl.
His offenses regularly fail to take advantage of game-sealing opportunities in the game that counts the most.
Whereas San Francisco missed crucial opportunities, Kansas City converted a key one when San Francisco fumbled a punt return, positioning the Chiefs at San Francisco’s 16-yard line.
Kansas City’s subsequent one-play, a 16-yard drive, gave it a 13-10 lead.
The Genius of Kansas City’s Defensive Coordinator
Kansas City is exceedingly fortunate to have Steve Spagnuolo, arguably the NFL’s top defensive coordinator.
With the Chiefs’ offense struggling early on to put up points, Spagnuolo’s defense needed to step up in order to keep Kansas City competitive. While the 49ers came out achieving chunk plays, he adjusted.
One major step that he took was to blitz San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy at a high rate.
Purdy Against the Blitz
This was an intelligent step because Purdy is known as a rhythm quarterback who can be bothered under pressure. It was a Trent McDuffie blitz late in the fourth quarter that kept Purdy from extending his team’s drive and that, consequently, set up Patrick Mahomes for the game-tying drive with plenty of time left in regulation.
This is not to say, at all, that Purdy’s numbers against the blitz were bad, despite McDuffie’s big play.
However, what Spagnuolo’s blitz primarily accomplished is that it helped shut down San Francisco’s star running back, who mustered 3.6 YPC, which is 1.8 YPC fewer than his season average.
With CMC limited on the ground, the 49ers’ offense had to rely more extensively on Purdy.
Aided less than usual by CMC’s running, Purdy’s explosiveness and general productivity were down from his usual degree of success.
The Great Patrick Mahomes
The third major reason why Kansas City won is the reason that everybody knows: the Chiefs have a generational quarterback in future Hall-of-Famer Patrick Mahomes.
Mahomes is responsible for leading his offense on the two most important scoring drives. The first began with his team down 19-16 with 1:53 left in the fourth quarter.
Starting on the Chiefs’ own 26, Mahomes was nearly perfect.
He completed passes to four different wide receivers or tight ends, taking his team to San Francisco’s eleven-yard-line for a game-tying field goal. Fast-forward to overtime, with his team down three, he led his offense on a 75-yard touchdown drive to win the game.
In this drive, he used his legs more, accumulating 27 rushing yards on two carries. He threw the game-winning touchdown to Mecole Hardman from San Francisco’s three-yard line.
While it is fair to point out the 49ers’ missed chances, the fact is that their defense still had the opportunity to protect San Francisco’s lead.
In order to do so, they had to stop Mahomes. However, they couldn’t do that.
Calculators
