The potential for Super Bowl LVIII being a classic was high for this rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers from 4 years ago. But like in that matchup, the Chiefs came back from a 10-point deficit to win 25-22 in the end behind game MVP Patrick Mahomes.
It took over 4 hours with just the 2nd Super Bowl to go to overtime. That meant a long night for your Super Bowl bets at top-rated sportsbooks. Did you win, or did you fall victim to some of the worst bad beats of the year?
We recap the most interesting betting storylines from the final game of the NFL season.
The Worst Bad Beat: Vegas (Kinda) Knew on the Total
Pour one out for the poor individuals who used the 2 week build-up to the Super Bowl to take the under, which was a logical call in a game between the No. 2 and No. 3 scoring defenses. The total was steadily hanging at 47.5 points for 2 weeks, but it did move down to 46.5 points on Super Bowl Sunday.
Very curious.
As fate would have it, the game started off with a fumble by Christian McCaffrey and a 3-and-out by the Chiefs, which snapped an 8-game playoff streak where they scored on their opening possession. This start was a sign of things to come as it was only the 10th scoreless 1st quarter in Super Bowl history, so under bettors had to be feeling great, especially at halftime when it was a 10-3 game.
Tables Turning
However, a muffed punt by the 49ers late in the 3rd quarter changed everything.
That set up the Chiefs for their 1st touchdown and we got some back-and-forth scoring the rest of the night as the offenses warmed up.
If you were rooting for the under, you did not want to see this go to overtime. That’s what happened when the Chiefs had to settle for a field goal and a 19-19 tie with 3 seconds left. We were finally going to see the new overtime rules, which are not helpful with betting the under since the game no longer ends on a single possession, even if it’s an offensive touchdown drive.
Sure enough, the 49ers scored a field goal and the Chiefs answered in typical Chiefs’ fashion with a walk-off touchdown, ending the game at 25-22 and 47 points.
If you got the under early when it was 47.5, then great. If you were a poor soul who waited until Sunday and got 46.5, then you have our sympathies.
However, being late to the party and taking over 46.5 sure worked out well despite the slow start. Guess that just goes to show you can never count out Mahomes and the Chiefs from getting the last score.
Chiefs Edge Out the Big-Play 49ers in Hilarious Fashion
A fun market to bet on for the Super Bowl is which team will have the longer field goal and the longest play from scrimmage.
The Chiefs were certainly favored for the longest field goal given the excellence of Harrison Butker and some of the struggles and range issues for San Francisco rookie kicker Jake Moody.
However, it sure seemed like Moody was going to pull the upset when he opened the scoring with a 55-yard field goal, the longest in Super Bowl history, to give the 49ers a 3-0 lead. Little did he know that record wouldn’t last a full 2 quarters as Butker outdid it with a 57-yard field goal in the 3rd quarter.
But surely the 49ers would have the longest play of the game with their home-run hitters in Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and even Christian McCaffrey?
Nope, that one also went to Kansas City and in hilarious fashion, as Mecole Hardman caught a 52-yard bomb in the 2nd quarter. Hardman notoriously is terrible at tracking the ball in the air, yet he came down with that one from Mahomes to give the Chiefs some confidence after a shaky start.
The 49ers did not finish with a gain longer than 24 yards as the Kansas City defense was impressive again.
Kansas City also won the battle of most first downs, 24-23, with the decisive touchdown to Hardman providing the equalizer in overtime.
Bad Beat Alert: Brock Purdy Takes a Knee
Not only did a majority of under bettors get the shaft on this game going to overtime, but anyone betting the over on Brock Purdy’s rushing prop (over/under 12.5 yards) also felt the sting when the Chiefs failed to score the go-ahead touchdown in regulation.
Tied at 19 with 3 seconds left, Purdy took a knee for overtime, dropping his rushing yards to 12. He did not scramble again in overtime, so he finished under 12.5 yards.
Those kneeldowns can be so annoying for that reason. They really should be counted as a separate play from runs and passes as they are just a clock play, a give-up play from the offense.
But it was not a banner night for the running game unless you were Patrick Mahomes, who led the Chiefs with 66 rushing yards, easily hitting his over (25.5 yards) and his over on the longest rush (12.5 yards). Christian McCaffrey (80 yards vs. over/under 89.5 yards) and Isiah Pacheco (59 yards vs. over/under 67.5 yards) both finished under and both lost a fumble.
Weird Night for Wide Receivers
Super Bowl LVIII was a strange night for the wide receiver position. If you bet on any of the studs to do something great, you were likely disappointed:
- Deebo Samuel caught 3-of-11 targets for 33 yards.
- Brandon Aiyuk caught 3-of-6 targets for 49 yards.
- Rashee Rice caught 6-of-8 targets for 39 yards.
- All 3 went under their yardage props and none scored a touchdown.
Yet, it was almost an MVP night for Jauan Jennings. He threw a 23-yard touchdown to Christian McCaffrey and caught a touchdown on his way to finishing with 4 catches for 42 yards. He really might have won MVP had the 49ers stopped Kansas City in regulation and won 19-16.
In fact, it was a banner night for the lesser-known wide receivers on both teams:
- Mecole Hardman had his mistakes this year for the Chiefs, but he caught that 52-yard bomb early and caught the game-winning touchdown in overtime.
- Justin Watson was quiet for Kansas City in the postseason, but he stepped up and hit his overs with 3 catches for 54 yards.
- Chris Conley (18 yards) and Ray-Ray McCloud (19 yards) both had a catch in the 1st quarter that gave them more yards of offense than the entire Kansas City offense in that opening quarter.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling caught Kansas City’s 1st team touchdown and just barely eclipsed his over with 20 yards, clinched in overtime after he followed up a horrible play where he ran backwards and lost 3 yards.
Mahomes really just beat the No. 1 seed in the Super Bowl by throwing touchdowns to MVS and Hardman. Crazy way for this season to end for the Chiefs after the wide receiver position was heavily crucified in the regular season.
However, it was a great night for anyone betting on a non-quarterback to throw a touchdown or for over 2.5 players to attempt a pass.
The Interception Props
Most Super Bowls include an interception and this was no different.
The only surprise was we got just 1 pick and it was from Patrick Mahomes instead of Brock Purdy.
Mahomes started the 3rd quarter with a pick on 3rd-and-12 on his only real bad play of the night. At least it did not hurt the Chiefs as the 49ers went 3-and-out at midfield after it.
However, we actually predicted Mahomes would throw a pick in his player props for this game, which we also nailed for him throwing exactly 2 touchdown passes (+185) and going over in pass attempts (36.5) and passing yards (262.5). We mentioned Mahomes had gone a record 6 straight playoff games without a pick, but that streak was going to end in this game against a tough defense that has now intercepted him 3 times in the Super Bowl.
We clearly didn’t get everything right, as we had Brock Purdy throwing a pick too, which never happened.
It came close to happening on a deflected ball after he tried to get a pass late to Deebo Samuel, but for the most part, Purdy protected the ball. His special teams and running back did not.
Of the 6 youngest quarterbacks to start a Super Bowl, Purdy is the only one to not throw an interception.
Kansas City and the 2nd Half Under Failed Us
One of the best bets all year was the under in 2nd halves of Kansas City games.
The Chiefs were in the bottom 3 in points scored after halftime and No. 1 in points allowed after halftime. They always seemed to adjust well on defense this year while the offense often failed to score.
Well, this game was going to be a fascinating matchup since the 49ers ranked No. 1 in the regular season in points scored after halftime. But you still had to feel confident about the under 23.5 (some places had 24.5) for the 2nd half in this matchup.
That sure fell apart after the 49ers muffed that punt late in the 3rd quarter. The Chiefs scored 10 points in that quarter and 6 more in the 4th quarter. The 49ers had 9 points in the 4th quarter, so these teams already hit the over with 25 points before overtime added another 9 points to the 2nd half.
You could have bet under 21.5 points in the 2nd half in Kansas City games this year and gone 19-1 going into this Super Bowl.
Tough night for that bet to fail spectacularly.
Super Bowl MVP: Most Valuable Patrick Again
One of the earliest Super Bowl picks we made this year was for Patrick Mahomes to win MVP for the 3rd time.
There was an argument for Christian McCaffrey becoming the 1st running back since Terrell Davis (1997 Broncos) to win it. He did finish with 160 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. He also lost a fumble to start the game.
Travis Kelce had an argument about becoming the 1st tight end to win it. However, he had 1 yard at halftime, and despite finishing strong with 93 yards, he did not find the end zone.
In the end, it was always Mahomes, who finished with 333 passing yards, 2 touchdowns and 66 rushing yards, including some huge runs to keep this game alive for the Chiefs. Even when things looked bleak at halftime, Mahomes only had 2 incomplete passes and one of those was an attempt to throw a pass away that you could argue should not have been ruled intentional grounding.
The inevitability of Mahomes is just something we are not used to seeing in the NFL.
When he got the ball 1st in overtime against the Bills in the 2021 divisional round, you just knew he’d go down the field for the game-winning touchdown. That was the game where he forced overtime despite taking over with 13 seconds and a 3-point deficit.
The Job Is Done
Mahomes did the job and he threw a game-winning touchdown pass to Kelce. That led to the NFL changing the overtime rules for the postseason where both teams can get a possession now, even if there is a touchdown on the opening drive.
We had not seen an overtime playoff game since Kansas City’s win over Buffalo, so when Mahomes took over with a 22-19 deficit in overtime, you felt like there was a great chance he was going to pull it off again.
He ran for 8 yards on a 4th-and-1 to save the season, then scrambled for 19 more yards on a 3rd-and-1. Inevitably, he threw a 3-yard touchdown pass to Mecole Hardman to win the game. Case closed. The MVP is still his.
Mahomes joins Bart Starr (1966-67) and Terry Bradshaw (1978-79) as the only players to win Super Bowl MVP awards in consecutive seasons. He also improved to 10-3 SU as an underdog.
Mahomes and the Chiefs will try for an unprecedented 3-peat next season. Bet against them at your own risk.
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