While most of the bets for Super Bowl LVIII will be placed before kickoff, there are still many opportunities for live betting as well when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers.
Live betting requires another level of experience for bettors because you are going to see some wild lines if the game gets off to a hot start with multiple touchdowns. Suddenly, that line of 262.5 passing yards for Patrick Mahomes can balloon to 315.5, and the total of 47.5 is now up to 57.5.
Sportsbooks are great at setting lines, but when there is a line for all the props to go along with the spread and total, there are bound to be bad numbers that you can take advantage of with a timely bet.
But for the beginners just digging into live betting, we have included 5 tips for strategies you can employ for Super Bowl LVIII and future games.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, February 11, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
1. Speed Is Everything
Speed is really the name of the game with live betting, especially in the NFL when plays are being run every 40 seconds (or less). Factor in that your feed of the game is likely on a delay from real-time, and you do not have a great deal of time to get the number you want before the next snap can dramatically alter that number.
If you want to live bet George Kittle to go over 50.5 receiving yards, you better get that bet in immediately because you never know if the next snap is going to be a 40-yard gain to him that is going to dramatically change that betting line to something much bigger than 50.5 yards.
If you are thinking of live betting the spread, you better act fast before the quarterback throws a pick-6 on the next snap and there is a big swing on the scoreboard. Things move fast sometimes, and your bets can get rejected if you don’t beat the play clock and the next play has already happened.
This is why you should be doing your live bets on a mobile device with a good internet connection. You should have good experience with navigating the sportsbook and already have your bankroll ready to go to place live bets.
Timing is everything.
2. Watch the Game for Insights
Don’t all sports fans watch the Super Bowl anyway? However, if you are attending a party, you still need to be on top of your game as we just said speed is everything. Make sure you are watching the game for good insights that can aid you in your bets, especially for player props:
- If you see Brandon Aiyuk repeatedly beating his man regardless if the ball is getting to him, he might be a good pick for the next touchdown scorer when the 49ers have the ball or just an anytime touchdown scorer for the rest of the game.
- If Brock Purdy is under siege early from the pass rush, you might want to hammer that Kansas City spread before it keeps going up in the Chiefs’ favor or consider taking a chance on the Kansas City defense to score a touchdown in the game as they did in last year’s Super Bowl.
- If Patrick Mahomes is passing the ball on almost every snap in the first 15 minutes, you might want to take the under on Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards.
- If Travis Kelce has been very quiet near halftime, you could get a valuable line on his over in receptions as you know he is going to see the ball eventually.
- If you see the Chiefs take a deep shot early to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, you might want to hammer his over as it only takes one snap for him to hit that number with a big play.
We always have our notions of how a game will turn out going into it, but seeing the matchups unfold live can quickly change our minds.
3. Shop Around the Sportsbooks
On top of being fast, it is important to know which sportsbooks offer which live betting markets.
Some may allow for a full live same-game parlay with props and everything, while others are stricter with single plays.
The markets offered could also be different. You might have a sportsbook that offers alternate team scoring totals for live bets while another might just have one number that you can bet over or under.
The odds themselves also can differ. The Chiefs may be +250 on the moneyline at halftime on one sportsbook and +220 on another, so if you are betting on the Chiefs to come back to win, you’ll obviously take the +250 odds.
The other bonus to using multiple sportsbooks is you could take advantage of promotions going on, which sometimes include profit boosts specifically for live bets. You could get a 30% boost at times on a live bet at certain sportsbooks. Always be on the lookout for those promotions to make the most of your bets.
4. Hedge Your Pre-Game Bets
One of the best aspects of live betting is hedging your pre-game bets. This can take many forms, and we have highlighted a few strategies below.
Hedging a Final Parlay Leg
One of the best things about live betting is hedging the final leg of a parlay.
For example, let’s say you had a 5-leg parlay and were fortunate to see Travis Kelce, Christian McCaffrey, and Rashee Rice all score touchdowns before halftime, and Rice already hit the over on his yards. The last leg on your parlay is for the Chiefs to win, and they are leading 21-10.
In this case, you could hedge something on the San Francisco moneyline to guarantee yourself a win. That doesn’t mean you should hedge an amount equal to what your parlay would win, but if you want to guarantee a profit, you could hedge something with a live bet and relieve some pressure from waiting out the rest of the game to see if the Chiefs secure the win.
Anyone who bets parlays enough knows how much agony that final leg can be, and how often it is the final leg that sinks you.
Just hedge responsibly.
Double Down on Original Bet With New Line
Another nice hedging technique is to double down on your original bet with a new line.
For example, let’s say you loved the under 44.5 points in the AFC Championship Game between the Chiefs and Ravens. When the teams scored 3 straight touchdowns and it was 14-7 with both quarterbacks going crazy, that live total had to shoot up to the mid-50s at least, if not approaching 60 points.
However, games have an ebb and flow to them, especially in the playoffs. Sure enough, the No. 1 and No. 2 scoring defenses settled down, and that game ended way under at 17-10. You could have won your original bet on the under 44.5 points, and you could have won your live hedge with the under 55 or whatever the line moved to.
You win both bets in this case.
This Super Bowl also happens to feature the No. 2 and No. 3 scoring defenses. The Chiefs allow the fewest points after halftime as they usually adjust well under Steve Spagnuolo. The Chiefs also score the 3rd-fewest points after halftime, so this could be another game where the scoring starts strong before tapering off, allowing for a live under bet to be an ideal hedge on the over or a double down on the under.
Hedge a Prop
Live betting is great for hedging player props, especially when someone has a hot or cold start.
For example, in last year’s Super Bowl, Travis Kelce had an over/under of about 79.5 receiving yards. He had 60 yards in the 1st quarter alone, so that live betting line likely shot well past 100 yards at that point.
However, Kelce only finished with 81 yards as the Eagles held him in check during the final 3 quarters. If you were on the over for Kelce before the game, you could have hedged and taken the new under after a quarter, and you would have won both bets.
In a game like the Super Bowl where very good defenses and coaching staffs are usually involved, you can always try pouncing on these explosive starts by taking the under and expecting the teams to adjust to that player.
Middling a Line
We’ve already discussed doubling down and hitting both sides of a bet on the same market, but middling is another popular live betting strategy.
It could be hard to pull off in a game like this where the spread is tiny at 2.5 points. However, here is an example of how it could work in your favor in Super Bowl LVIII.
Let’s say you love the Chiefs +2.5 spread bet and take that before the game. Things are going well, they lead by 10 points at halftime just as they did in Baltimore, and now the new line at halftime is something like Chiefs -4.5 as they are now favored.
Maybe you fear another San Francisco comeback in the 2nd half like the team has done against the Packers and Lions already this postseason. You could hedge with 49ers +4.5, and if the Chiefs win by 1-to-4 points, something they did in last year’s Super Bowl, then you can win both bets by hitting the middle of the lines.
Not every game provides good middling value, but with the way Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan have seen their teams blow leads and make huge comebacks in the postseason, there could be great potential for hedging in this game.
5. Don’t Chase Your Losses
Finally, this is always an important betting strategy but don’t chase your losses.
Some nights are not going to go your way, so don’t dig the hole deeper by continuing to place bets on the same game. Stick to a reasonable bankroll limit and don’t blow it all in one night, especially on the last NFL game of the season.
There is always next season.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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